Pay attention to the impact of Tonga volcanic eruption on the agrochemical industry. On January 15, the volcano in Tonga sea area continued to erupt and triggered a tsunami. Tonga’s volcanic eruption may reach vei-6. The volcanic eruption will release a large amount of sulfur dioxide and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, resulting in reduced atmospheric transparency, reduced light and reduced earth surface temperature. The volcanic eruption may lead to global climate anomalies and crop production reduction, making the supply and demand of the agrochemical industry more tense. It is suggested to pay attention to the companies related to the agrochemical industry chain.
In the off-season of demand, the market performance is flat, waiting for a new main line. The western chemical industry index was 108.60 this week, up 0.03% month on week and 24.15% year-on-year. As of January 14, 2022, Brent’s weekly average price was 84.6 USD / barrel, up (+ 4.22 USD / barrel); The weekly average price of Qinhuangdao (q5500) thermal coal was 902.5 yuan / ton, up 93.93 yuan / ton from last week. The products with the highest price increase this week are calcium pantothenate (+ 36.9%), butadiene (FOB in Korea) (+ 16.3%), epichlorohydrin (+ 13.7%), n-butanol (+ 13.5%) and power coal (+ 11.6%); The products with the largest decline were imidacloprid technical (- 13.0%), R32 (- 11.8%), acrylonitrile (an) (- 10.1%), glufosinate (- 8.6%) and light soda ash (- 8.1%).
In 2022, we put forward a new strategic view of “earning beta repair performance and alpha valuation”, “looking for beta with profit repair and looking for it α High quality target “.
We suggest to find beta repair along the following main lines: 1) shipping damage: export products are expected to pick up after shipping recovery; 2) Downward movement of raw materials: the subject matter with damaged raw materials will receive downward movement of raw materials in the second half of the inventory cycle; 3) Automobile downstream: the sales volume of passenger cars and trucks will decline year-on-year, and the industries affecting profits will usher in month on month improvement and upward cycle in 2022; 4) Improvement of the epidemic situation: industries damaged by the impact of the epidemic situation on demand will usher in a recovery of demand after the promotion of specific drugs and the alleviation of the epidemic situation; 5) Sino US easing: the reduction of Sino US tariffs has led to an increase in export profits; 6) CPI uplink:
The transmission from PPI to CPI brings investment opportunities in agro chemical and other related industries; 7) Double carbon supply contraction:
The double carbon policy has led to the continuous contraction of the supply side of high-energy consumption industries, and the profitability of resources and resource products is optimistic for a long time; 8) Double carbon demand pull: the continuous pull of new energy demand provides upward space for valuation for relevant enterprises.
In β In the defensive stage, we will focus more on α We plan to explore the growth targets from the following tracks (not limited to this): 1) specialized and special new companies; 2) Tire industry; 3) Hydrogen energy direction; 4) Degradable plastics industry; 5) Biosynthesis direction; 6) Recycling industry; 7) Purification and filtration industry; 8) Membrane industry; 9) Carbon fiber industry; 10) aerogel industry. Key companies: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Hunan Sokan New Materials Co.Ltd(688157) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
risk prompt: safety accident affects commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies.
