Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival is expected
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the collapse of high-level conglomerates was the main reason for the sharp fluctuation of market sentiment at the beginning of the year. It is expected that investors’ confidence in steady growth policies and economic stabilization will continue to strengthen, and market sentiment will boost with the redefinition of the main line of steady growth. The starting point of the market in the first half of the year is approaching, and it is expected to appear before the festival. first of all, the rapid adjustment of high-level conglomerates has induced investors to “cut high and cut low” and reduce their positions. Concerns about the strength of steady growth policy have induced mutual position exchange, resulting in the confusion of the main line in the first half of the month, but the market has passed the most panic point of sentiment, and what is missing is the consensus on the main line direction. Secondly, we expect that the centralized landing of last year’s economic data will make the market form more consistent expectations for this year’s steady growth, the formation of policy synergy is on the way, and the market’s economic expectations for 2022 will be gradually revised. Finally, incremental funds began to stabilize and resume inflow. The clarification of the main line of stable growth will significantly improve market sentiment. It is expected that the starting point of the market in the first half of the year before the festival. It is suggested to continue to focus on the “three low positions”.
In terms of configuration, we continue to recommend “three low levels”, specifically including: 1. Varieties whose fundamentals are expected to be still low, focus on midstream manufacturing suppressed by cost problems in the early stage, such as vehicle, lithium battery cell, photovoltaic equipment, etc., and tax-free and entertainment content consumption whose Fundamentals are expected to be still low; 2. For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, it is recommended to pay attention to the high-quality developers, building materials and home furnishing enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of medium concept stocks, and the fine chemical enterprises with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materials; 3. High boom varieties with relatively low share price after adjustment, such as intelligent driving, auto parts, and semiconductor equipment, power semiconductor, Xinchuang and military industry driven by localization logic.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the market has a bottom down and bargain hunting layout is waiting for the Spring Festival
According to Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities, the market continued the downward trend of shock this week, and the Shanghai stock index fell by 1.63%. Under the aggregation of negative factors, the market will still face periodic pressure. However, considering that the current market transaction congestion is significantly lower than that at the beginning of 2021, we believe that negative feedback is difficult to form → the market has a bottom, and the bargain hunting layout is waiting for the Spring Festival. 1) the current intensive deduction of negative factors: the negative disturbance at the denominator is the core contradiction of the recent market. On the one hand, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December released a strong hawkish signal, which affected the rapid rise of the yield of 10-year US bonds. On the basis of the market’s consistent expectation of China’s broad currency in the first half of the year, the impact of overseas disturbance on market liquidity expectation has been marginally amplified. On the other hand, the superposition of real estate credit risk and Omicron exacerbates the pressure of epidemic control in China, so that the risk preference at the denominator is still suppressed. 2) However, there is a bottom in the market downturn: the current market congestion is low → the possibility of stampede is low → there is a bottom in the market downturn, which is not comparable with the market in February 2021. After the Spring Festival, the negative factors with overseas liquidity risk as the core will be gradually implemented and digested. At the same time, with the successive completion of the change of provincial Party and government organs, the steady growth policy will be gradually promoted and strengthened, and the market is expected to gradually recover. On the whole, bargain hunting layout years ago, waiting for the Spring Festival.
Style switching, water flowing low. 1) In the short term, the market is accelerating the high-low switching. Recently, the structural market of the market has gradually shown the characteristics of high-low switching. Since the beginning of January, the low price to book ratio index and low price to earnings ratio index have increased by 1.76% and 1.26% respectively, while the corresponding high price to book ratio index and high price to earnings ratio index have decreased by – 8.16% and – 6.81% respectively. At present, the negative expected impact of overseas liquidity is superimposed on the low risk appetite. We believe that the market style will accelerate the switch to the undervalued style. 2) From the medium-term perspective, we should also grasp the valuation repair direction under the improvement of fundamentals. Further from the medium-term perspective, with the weakening of profit contribution in 2022, the excess return of the market will also come from valuation repair. At the same time, considering the limitations of loose expected time and space, so that the valuation end does not have the basis for comprehensive lifting, we should focus on the direction of valuation repair, and the positive feedback mechanism of fundamentals will further determine the slope of valuation repair.
Industry configuration: 1) consumption: Pig / household appliances / furniture and social service / Tourism / Baijiu and other directions; 2) Infrastructure: building materials / construction / power operation; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the entanglement between “steady growth” and “growth style, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium term
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that since the beginning of the year, the performance of A-Shares has been relatively low, and the sector has generally fallen. Only a few sectors such as banking, real estate and agriculture have slightly positive returns, which may be due to several reasons: first, from the perspective of China’s environment, the growth has not seen a significant improvement, and investors pay close attention to the strength and rhythm of policy implementation; Second, the spread of the epidemic at home and abroad has accelerated recently, and there is great pressure on epidemic prevention and control in major cities in China. Investors are cautious about the recovery of consumption, especially during the Spring Festival; Third, since the beginning of the year, major global markets have fallen more or less, and the U.S. monetary policy has tightened. Individual investors are also worried that this will affect the risk appetite of a shares.
We expect that the above factors may still affect the market sentiment in the near future, but we think there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the medium term. At present, the means of “steady growth” of China’s policy is still being gradually implemented. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous introduction of “steady growth” policy details and the gradual stabilization of China’s growth, the market sentiment is expected to be repaired; The current policies of China and the United States are “reverse”. The United States pays more attention to “inflation”, while China is coping with the problem of “stagnation”. Under this background, the impact of U.S. monetary policy and market fluctuations on A-Shares may be relatively limited. Recently, northward funds still maintain a net capital inflow for two consecutive weeks.
The “growth style” with poor early performance has stabilized recently. We believe that the sharp decline of “growth style” may come to an end, but we may not be in a hurry to copy the bottom; Although the “steady growth” style has been corrected this week, there may be room for performance in the future. We still maintain the previous “steady growth” style, which may last until about the end of the first quarter, which may be the turning point for the style to return to the growth style more obviously.
industry configuration suggestions: the steady growth style may continue, and the manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround. 1) areas potentially supported by marginal policy changes or forces, including industrial chains related to stable demand for infrastructure and real estate (construction, building materials, household appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the medium – and long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including household appliances, light industrial homes, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, medicine, aviation and hotels; 3) The short-term share price of the manufacturing growth sector with a large increase last year may be restrained, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors. The potential turnaround depends on the change of market style again. The potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
The above three directions may overlap slightly, of which the first direction is more phased and needs to pay more attention to the policy rhythm.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: popular tracks are accumulating strength to regain the rally
According to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities, in terms of internal environment, liquidity has improved marginally recently. Next Monday, 500 billion MLF will expire. We are concerned about the possibility of renewing the interest rate cut. Credit easing and structural monetary policy are worth looking forward to. In the two weeks since this year, the cumulative net inflow of northbound funds has exceeded 13 billion, of which the allocation type has reached 11.4 billion, and the net inflow has been into the new energy sector for nine consecutive trading days.
At present, the prosperity of popular tracks (new energy vehicles / photovoltaic / semiconductor / military industry, etc.) is driven by the industry cycle rather than the economic environment. There is still much room to improve the penetration rate, and some industries gradually have the logic of globalization. After this round of adjustment, the worries about the high valuation of the sector have been alleviated to a large extent, and the performance growth rate of 30% + is still very attractive. Supported by the fundamentals that the high boom runs through at least the first half of the year, we are still optimistic about the overall industrial development and relative income performance. Looking forward to the later stage, the source of excess return may lie in the subdivision links of business continuity or even further upward, as well as the incremental investment opportunities brought by the evolution of industrial trend. Focus on: military industry, photovoltaic (midstream and downstream) / new energy operation, new energy vehicles (power cells / intelligent parts), semiconductors (IGBT / materials / equipment). On the other hand, specialized, special and new – prosperous small and medium-sized markets welcome the opportunity of industrial upgrading. Based on its relatively low valuation level (corresponding to high valuation elasticity) and the proportion of institutional positions, it is also expected to become another source of excess returns.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : adjust the market trend in spring at the beginning of the year, pay attention to big finance, new and old infrastructure
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) said that on the whole, people’s doubts about the spring market are mainly due to two concerns: one is that it is difficult for policies to hedge the downward pressure on the macro economy, and the other is that the micro capital is no longer abundant at the beginning of the year. Haitong strategy believes that: ① the steady growth policy has been intensively implemented. With the promotion of historical steady growth policy, the market will eventually rise. ② In the first quarter, there are often more funds entering the market, which comes from the peak season of employee year-end bonus distribution and asset management product distribution. ③ The adjustment at the beginning of the year does not change the market trend in spring, the structure is balanced, and attention is paid to the undervalued large finance + new and old infrastructure with policy force.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : short term A shares may have a structural rebound
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have fluctuated greatly under the resonance of many factors, such as less than expected incremental funds, insufficient financing demand, investors’ less than expected sense of steady growth, a sharp rise in US bond yields, and the continuous epidemic in China. Subsequently, the convening of the local two sessions may strengthen the market’s expectations for steady growth. If the central bank’s monetary policy is further substantially relaxed, the steady growth force after the two sessions is expected to bring a turnaround for a shares. Considering the Spring Festival effect of a shares, there may be a structural rebound in A-Shares in the short term, which can follow the industry layout with performance forecast exceeding expectations.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : it is already in the bottom area, and the dawn will be
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that the market has been bumpy since the beginning of the year, but we think it is already at the bottom. on the one hand, the undervalued repair of financial and real estate sectors will continue to be realized after fluctuations. On the other hand, the adjustment space of popular tracks such as the “new semi army” has also been relatively sufficient.
At present, we believe that a wave of market similar to “mini version 2014” is brewing, and its timing depends on the wide credit process: 1) the market is in the time window of “stable growth” and marginal “wide credit”, and the core logic of the market continues to be fulfilled and strengthened: Although the new social finance in December 2021 is slightly lower than expected, the stock social finance is still 10.3% higher than the previous value, M2 was also 9.0% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.7%, indicating that the credit environment is still improving. In addition, the new special debt of RMB 1.46 trillion has been issued in advance, and major projects in some provinces and cities have also been issued in advance compared with previous years. Social finance is expected to further recover in January. Various signals and data are constantly verifying the direction of marginal “wide credit”. 2) At the time point, the index market in 2014 was not officially established until the central bank cut interest rates on November 21, 2014. At present, we also need to wait for signals such as social financing volume, reserve requirement reduction and interest rate reduction. However, from the time point of layout, just as the market finally proved that every adjustment from August to October 2014 has become an excellent buying point, it is still in the window of layout on the left. 3) However, the difference between now and 2014 is that, on the one hand, 2014 is a comprehensive and systematic relaxation. At present, under the general tone of “no speculation in real estate and housing” and “no promotion in infrastructure”, the intensity and space of policy easing are relatively limited, which is more likely to be phased and underpinned relaxation. On the other hand, in 2014, it gradually evolved into a round of leveraged cattle. At present, the market leverage is weak, and institutional funds are still the dominant force in the market. Therefore, the final deduction form is similar to “mini version 2014”, and the time and rhythm depend on the process of wide credit.
Investment strategy: on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market of Finance and real estate, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long playing short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : watershed or after the Spring Festival, ready to go
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) indicates that the watershed is ready to go after the Spring Festival. since the beginning of the year, A-Shares have been disturbed by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the valuation adjustment of the high boom track, and the characteristics of the “spring lack” market are more obvious. Near the Spring Festival, in view of the uncertainty of overseas news during the holiday, some off-site funds stay on the sidelines, and the market may be light. The watershed or after the Spring Festival. At that time, the path of the Fed’s interest rate hike will be clearer, and China’s liquidity will remain abundant. At the same time, the steady growth policy related to infrastructure and real estate investment continued to work, which became the driving force for A-Shares to get out of the “cold spring”. Considering that China’s monetary policy is loose and the valuation of A-Shares is reasonable on the whole, incremental foreign investment is also expected to continue to flow into the A-share market. In terms of configuration, the “undervalued blue chip” is the main one: first, it is related to traditional infrastructure, such as banks and building materials; Second, the real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy. Focus on topics: digital economy, meta universe, traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
Guosheng Securities: the rise of value may only be the beginning. It is expected to open a resonance market after the Spring Festival
Guosheng Securities believes that with the full force of the steady growth policy, the credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and it is necessary to further relax the policy in the future. in the short term, the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises remains, superimposing the impact of the high base in 2021, which may cause periodic disturbance to the steady growth sector; However, from the perspective of fundamental trends, the current is the initial stage of the comprehensive development of the steady growth policy. The credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, and the rise of value may only be the beginning. With the digestion of growth track valuation, it is expected to open a wave of resonance market after the Spring Festival, and steady growth is still the largest beta main line in the next quarter.
Strategic suggestions and industry recommendations (I) the credit conditions have been stabilized in a real sense, the inflection point at the bottom of m1-ppi has been confirmed, the probability will continue to repair upward in the later stage, continue to be optimistic about the market of value stocks in the medium term, and recommend high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and construction / construction materials in the direction of steady growth; （2） The new infrastructure development direction is: wind and solar energy storage, power operation and communication; （3） Auto parts and household appliances with reversed upstream costs benefit from low valuation and concept catalyzed media.
Minsheng Securities: expectations are repeated, and the market is still waiting for the “new consensus”
Minsheng Securities said that the A-share market as a whole was still down last week, the gem rebounded slightly compared with last week, and the trend of value outperforming growth has been repeated since the beginning of the year. This may reflect the market’s doubts about the strength of “steady growth” after the release of some economic data in December 2021. We previously highlighted the risk that short-term market fluctuations will continue. At the same time, we also stressed that the current steady growth is still in the “expected deduction” stage. The cohesion of the “new consensus” in the market takes time, and the style switching has direction certainty, but it needs to be completed step by step. Investors in the whole market are waiting for new marginal changes, but the difference is: wide currency pushes up Valuation vs wide credit brings prosperity recovery.
In a highly volatile market, the study of trading structure can be helpful to judge the short-term trend from the perspective of fundamentals. At present, there are two concerns at the transaction level: on the one hand, the redemption pressure faced by fixed open-end funds will disturb the market. According to our calculation, February and March of 2022 may be the months with high potential redemption pressure throughout the year (RMB 36.420 billion and RMB 31.129 billion are due and opened respectively, most of which are located in the yield range with high redemption probability), This pressure is mainly concentrated in food and beverage, electronics, power equipment, new energy, medicine and other growth sectors; On the other hand, historically, after the decline of similar strong stocks, the overall pullback range (median / mean is – 36.80% / – 38.60%), while the pullback of strong stocks has not reached this level since December (mean / median is – 17.40% / – 16.59%).
The real opportunities and turning points of the market are at several key nodes: the confirmation of wide credit (non wide currency), the confirmation of fund liability side disturbance and the return of strong stocks to the historical average level. It should be noted that there is no “perfect bottom” in the market, which means that when some of the above factors are available, it should be a good time to intervene. Investors who need to stay in the market should gradually carry out structural adjustment and grasp a more certain path in demand recovery (inflation itself). We believe more in the scenario that inflation certainty will be stronger than demand itself when demand stabilizes and picks up, and the two will jointly drive the return of value. Recommended layout: nonferrous metals (aluminum, copper and gold), crude oil chain (oil service and oil transportation), real estate, banking, coal and electricity. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization and county consumption (brand clothing and digital government affairs).
