Today (January 17), after the three major A-share indexes opened higher, the stock index showed a differentiation pattern, the Shanghai index maintained a shock, while the gem index rose rapidly, then fell back and shook, and pulled up and strengthened again near noon, thus driving the Shanghai index up. From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors rose more or fell less, the digital economy related targets broke out in an all-round way, the meta universe, military industry, lithium battery and other sectors performed prominently, and the local profit-making effect still exists.
Anxin securities firmly believes that we should not be pessimistic at present. The recovery of market sentiment needs to wait for key signals such as clear policy expectations, improvement of incremental funds and stability of the external environment. In mid February after the Spring Festival (social finance data) or an important decision point, “value building and growth singing”, this round of spring agitation is still worth looking forward to.
Under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports, and let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme one] meta universe
Hualong Securities pointed out that the meta universe is known as the ultimate form of the next generation Internet. The meta universe industrial chain extends outward from the underlying infrastructure to the user experience level. It can be divided into seven levels, including infrastructure, human-computer interaction, decentralization, spatial computing, creator economy, discovery, experience and so on.
At present, the meta universe belongs to the concept introduction period, and the substantive breakthrough of its application still needs a lot of technical accumulation, with great uncertainty. From the perspective of industrial chain, we can pay attention to three main lines: 5g, hardware equipment AR / VR and cloud computing.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that digital assets are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people and are one of the most important marginal and investment opportunities in this round of meta universe development. Since 2020, the dau of coinbase, a digital currency trading platform, has achieved rapid growth, with a peak of nearly 10 million in 2021. At the same time, under the background of the epidemic, loose monetary policy was implemented overseas, which promoted the sharp rise in the price of digital money represented by bitcoin. The listing of roblox in U.S. stocks and NVIDIA’s marketing and product promotion in virtual human make secondary market investors pay attention to the investment opportunities of metauniverse, especially the right confirmation and trading of digital assets based on blockchain technology.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) mentioned that they are optimistic about the development opportunities brought by the development of metauniverse gradually becoming a market consensus and giants increasing investment in the ecological construction of metauniverse. At present, the layout of A-share media companies is mainly concentrated in the application layer, such as virtual platform and immersive content, digital assets, digital identity and offline experience. Some companies also have layout in the technical layer, such as hardware entrance and 3D technology. []
[Topic 2] digital currency
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that after the promotion of the Winter Olympic Games, the digital RMB will be further familiar to the market, and its industrial chain enterprises and traditional banking industry will benefit from it. On the one hand, digital RMB hardware equipment manufacturers will benefit from the market opportunities brought by digital RMB Hard Wallet, while software developers will benefit from the business growth brought by the upgrading of banking systems outside China. On the other hand, the cross-border application of digital RMB will benefit the traditional banking business through “spillover effect”, with retail payment, foreign currency exchange and cross-border remittance bearing the brunt.
Open source securities mentioned that on January 4, the digital RMB (pilot version) app was officially launched, and 49 sub wallets were launched, involving shopping, travel, life, tourism and five other categories. According to the white paper on research and development progress of China’s digital RMB, digital RMB adopts centralized management and two-tier operation, the central bank is responsible for issuance and life cycle management, and commercial banks and other institutions are responsible for exchange and circulation services. At present, the main operators include nine banks, including China, agriculture, industry, construction, transportation, postal savings, China Merchants, online merchants and Weizhong. Other small and medium-sized banks and institutions will also provide digital RMB services. Therefore, large state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and small and medium-sized banks will generate relevant system development, testing, operation and maintenance requirements, and bank it, security encryption, hardware equipment and other related companies are expected to benefit. []
[Theme 3] national defense and military industry
Dongguan Securities said that looking forward to the whole “14th five year plan” period, there were sufficient orders in the military industry sector, and there was no major change in the fundamental logic of the industry. In the long run, geopolitical events are becoming more and more complicated, and the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving our military strength can we better deal with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainty. As a key counter cyclical sector, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is better and more certain. Optimistic about the high prosperity of the industry under the demand for equipment upgrading during the 14th Five Year Plan period; From the perspective of usage, with the increase of actual training times, the loss of trainer aircraft and the replenishment of missile inventory are increased, and we are optimistic about the aviation industry chain and the missile industry chain with high consumables; On the other hand, we are optimistic about the development of Beidou industrial chain under the Internet of things and the development of special chips under the new round of digital currency reform.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that this round of military industry market is far from over, and we should pay attention to the medium and long-term growth logic of military industry. First of all, there is a big gap between the current situation of the Chinese army and the goal of a world-class army. The strategy of building a strong army has risen to a national strategy. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the process of national defense modernization of our army has accelerated, and the procurement of advanced weapons and equipment is expected to accelerate in large quantities. Secondly, at present, the income of China’s military industry mainly depends on national financial investment, with significant planning characteristics. Under the background of the global economic downturn, the countercyclical attribute of the industry is obvious. Moreover, advanced military technology has great civil value, and the dual-use market has broad prospects. China’s aero-engine localization rate continues to improve. Driven by multiple demands such as advanced military aircraft assembly, replacement of existing fighters and domestic substitution of imported engines, the aero-engine industry chain is expected to continue to be prosperous. []
[Topic 4] lithium battery
Huaxin securities mentioned that the stock market at the end of the year pushed up the price of lithium salt and accelerated the upward trend. Lithium resources will still be in short supply in 2022, and enterprises mastering lithium resources will fully benefit. The lithium industry will usher in a dividend period of profit and market scale growth. Enterprises that master upstream resources and have sufficient capital and technology to expand production capacity will usher in a period of rapid development.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that recently, the market’s concern about the rapid rise of lithium price and “insufficient lithium supply” led to a significant adjustment in the lithium sector. We judge that the new global lithium supply in 2022 can meet the growth of downstream demand, and lithium will not become a hard constraint on the development of electric vehicle industry. Subject to the development cycle of mineral resources, we expect lithium to become one of the most sustainable links in the power battery industry chain. At the same time, it is expected that the catalyst and rising power of the sector will shift from “price rise” to “performance”, and the lithium sector will have strong valuation advantages and configuration value in 2022. We maintain the rating of “stronger than the big market” in the lithium industry, focus on recommending enterprises with high self-sufficiency rate of lithium mines and high degree of performance fulfillment, recommend Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , and suggest paying attention to Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) Shenzhen Hekeda Precision Cleaning Equipment Co.Ltd(002816) manufacturing.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that as the demand for new energy industry continues to improve in 2022, the central probability of lithium price will remain high in 2022. When the market sees that the price of lithium salt continues to be strong and gradually expects the price formation, it will focus on the performance improvement brought by the enterprise’s expansion of its own alpha. This is also the logic that we have always mentioned that the long-term of lithium sector is “volume” rather than “price”. We are still firmly optimistic about the allocation value of lithium sector in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to the performance forecast period in 2022.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at the end of the year, the gap between supply and demand was enlarged again, and the price of cobalt and lithium accelerated upward. (1) Lithium: some manufacturers shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, the output of lithium carbonate fell for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. Since the beginning of the year, the lithium hydroxide inventory has continued to decline. In November, the retail of new energy vehicles and the production scheduling of cathode materials show that the demand side maintains a high boom and maintains a bullish view on lithium prices; (2) Nickel: the purchasing demand of nickel salt downstream factories is poor, and the increase of quotation further affects the purchasing enthusiasm. The market is mainly wait-and-see, and the upward space of nickel sulfate price is under pressure; (3) Cobalt: the precursor and four cobalt manufacturers may have some replenishment due to the adjustment of production plan. The rhythm of goods collection in the downstream years ago is gradually rising, and the superimposed head enterprises reduce output, and the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise. []
