In today’s stock market, due to a “interest rate cut” by the central bank, A-Shares rose. I don’t know if you have eaten meat?
the central bank made good A-Shares and soared
more than 100 shares in the two cities rose by the limit
On January 17, the Shanghai index maintained a strong upward trend, and the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose sharply, up more than 1.5%; The daily turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.1 trillion, and the net inflow of northward funds once exceeded 3 billion yuan, which returned in the late trading.
As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.58% to 3541.67 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 1.51% to 14363.57 points, and the gem index rose 1.63% to 3170.41 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 1119.7 billion yuan, and the net purchase of northbound funds was 1.707 billion yuan.
Overall, individual stocks rose more and fell less today, with more than 3200 stocks rising. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets today was 1119.7 billion, 12.7 billion more than that of the previous trading day.
On the disk, the digital currency sector was stronger in the afternoon, Shenzhen Emperor Technology Company Limited(300546) , Synthesis Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300479) , Newcapec Electronics Co.Ltd(300248) , Shenzhen Tianyuan Dic Information Technology Co.Ltd(300047) , Beijing Advanced Digital Technology Co.Ltd(300541) 20cm limit, Business-Intelligence Of Oriental Nations Corporation Ltd(300166) , Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Beijing Infosec Technologies Co.Ltd(688201) , Qitian Technology Group Co.Ltd(300061) , Xgd Inc(300130) rose by more than 10%.
Covid-19 drug concept broke out again, Xinxiang Tuoxin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(301089) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) , Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) and other “20cm” limit.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) once rose more than 5%, supporting the gem index.
Is there a bull market after the interest rate cut? Dongxing strategy analysis said that it can boost in the short term, but the long-term impact is not obvious. After the interest rate cut, the index rose significantly on the same day. Since 2010, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen eight times and fallen three times in one day after the interest rate cut. However, the number of increases and decreases after one week and January is basically the same, without obvious regularity. Interest rate cuts cannot guarantee a trend rebound, but there are structural opportunities. At present, it is in a period of downward fundamentals and loose policy care hedging. There are twists and turns in the short term, and long-term easing is ready to turn warm in an all-round way or after the Spring Festival.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) according to the analysis, we need to continue to observe the follow-up interest rate reduction, but the window period of interest rate reduction has not been closed, and there is still the possibility of interest rate reduction in the first quarter. The MLF and Omo lowered 10bp, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5bp, and the subsequent interest rate reduction expectation may be reduced. However, at present, there is still great pressure to stabilize growth, reduce costs and prevent risks, support the real economy, and the weakening situation of supply and demand and expectations has not changed significantly. Therefore, it is possible to cut interest rates in the first quarter.
the number of births fell again
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, at the end of 2021, the national population (including the population of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government and active servicemen, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan residents and foreigners living in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) was 1412.6 million, an increase of 480000 over the end of the previous year.
The annual birth population was 10.62 million, and the birth rate was 7.52 ‰; The dead population is 10.14 million, and the population mortality rate is 7.18 ‰; The natural population growth rate is 0.34 ‰.
In terms of gender composition, the male population is 723.11 million and the female population is 689.49 million. The gender ratio of the total population is 104.88 (100 for women).
In terms of age composition, the working age population aged 16-59 is 88.22 million, accounting for 62.5% of the national population; There are 267.36 million people aged 60 and above, accounting for 18.9% of the national population, including 200.56 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 14.2% of the national population.
In terms of urban and rural composition, the urban permanent resident population was 914.25 million, an increase of 12.05 million over the end of the previous year; The rural resident population was 498.35 million, a decrease of 11.57 million; The proportion of urban population in the national population (urbanization rate) was 64.72%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points over the end of last year.
The population separated from households (i.e. the population whose residence and registered residence are not in the same Township street and who have left the registered residence for more than half a year) was 504.29 million, an increase of 11.53 million over the previous year; Among them, the floating population was 384.67 million, an increase of 8.85 million over the previous year.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s annual birth population was more than 16 million from 2011 to 2015. In 2016, the two child policy was fully implemented, and the birth population reached 17.86 million in that year. In 2017, the birth population reached 17.23 million. After 2018, with the basic release of fertility potential energy after the implementation of the comprehensive two child policy, the birth population has a downward trend. The number of births fell to 15.23 million in 2018. In 2019, China’s birth population will drop to 14.65 million. There will be a significant decline in 2020, with a birth population of 12 million in that year. The birth population in 2021 decreased by 1.38 million compared with that in 2020.
From the perspective of natural population growth rate, China has approached “zero population growth”. In 2021, China will have a birth population of 10.62 million, with a birth rate of 7.52 ‰; The dead population is 10.14 million, and the population mortality rate is 7.18 ‰; The natural population growth rate is 0.34 ‰.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, combing the net population growth over the years since 1949, it is found that the net population growth in 2021 has reached a new low in recent 60 years (since 1962).
China’s total population will remain above 1.4 billion for some time to come
“Population reduction is the result of the comprehensive influence of many factors”
In 2021, China’s birth population decreased compared with the previous year, and the birth rate decreased. Ning Jizhe said that the population reduction is the result of the comprehensive influence of many factors. “The slowdown of population growth is the objective result of China’s economic development, especially industrialization and urbanization. Aging and fewer children are also common problems faced by developed countries and even some emerging economies.” Ning Jizhe pointed out that there are three main reasons:
First, the number of women of childbearing age continued to decrease. In 2021, the number of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 decreased by about 5 million over the previous year, including about 3 million women of childbearing age aged 21-35.
Second, the fertility level continued to decline. In recent years, the concept of procreation has changed, the age of marriage and childbearing is also postponed, and some other factors that increase the cost of procreation have reduced the willingness of young people to procreate.
Third, the epidemic of covid-19 pneumonia has also delayed the marriage and childbearing arrangements of young people to a certain extent.
A number of international investigations and studies have found that the fertility level in many countries and regions has decreased since the outbreak of the epidemic. In 2020, the birth population of Japan will decrease over the previous year, and that of South Korea will also decrease over the previous year.
Ning Jizhe pointed out that in the coming period, China’s total population will remain above 1.4 billion. It is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:
First, there are more women of childbearing age. China has a large population base. At present, there are still more than 300 million women of childbearing age, which can maintain the birth scale of more than 10 million people every year, and the total population will maintain a certain level of growth.
Second, the effect of the “three child” policy will gradually appear. Over the past decade, the birth policies of “two children alone” and “two children in an all-round way” have achieved positive results, and the number of births has increased. According to the data of the seventh national census, the population of children aged 0-14 increased by more than 30 million compared with 2010, with the proportion increasing by 1.35 percentage points, mainly because the “two child” fertility policy promoted the increase of fertility rate. Among the births, the proportion of “two children” increased from about 30% in 2013 to about 43% in 2021. In May 2021, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed to further optimize the fertility policy and implement the policy that a couple can have three children and supporting measures. All localities have formulated and issued specific implementation plans, and the policy effect will gradually appear.
Third, the life expectancy of the population continues to increase. China’s medical and health conditions have been greatly improved, people’s living standards have been continuously improved, life expectancy has been continuously extended, and the death population has been less than the birth population, which has helped to maintain the growth trend of the total population. Some delayed births will continue to be released in the future, and these factors will play a positive role in maintaining the basic stability of the total population.
