Key points of the report:
① many provinces and cities intensively held private enterprise symposiums to affirm the important position of private economy and emphasize the development determination of private enterprises. Steady growth requires four or two catties. The government should enhance enterprise confidence, spread money to credit, and realize the expansion of investment and reproduction of the whole society. ② The private enterprise symposium is of special significance to a shares. In the half year after the two entrepreneur seminars in 2018 and 2020, social finance and stock market have significantly stabilized and rebounded. We are full of confidence in the subsequent social finance and stock market stabilization. ③ At this round of private enterprise symposium, the Internet industry is expected to benefit. Taking Zhejiang, a demonstration area of common prosperity, as an example, Yuan Jiajun, Secretary of the provincial Party committee, stressed that the private economy is the biggest characteristic advantage of Zhejiang's economy and accelerated the promotion of digital industrialization. ④ There was a major inflection point in the attitude of Internet regulation to prevent the disorderly expansion of capital from "initial results" to "important results", and the senior management fully affirmed the regulatory effect. Qiushi magazine published Xi Jinping general secretary's "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy", emphasizing that the digital economy is a national strategy. ⑤ Even if the Internet performance is difficult to improve significantly, the end of the regulatory cycle is expected to improve the valuation. Internet regulatory boots are expected to be implemented. If the two sessions consider and pass the amendment to the anti-monopoly law this year, it will greatly reduce the uncertainty of regulatory policies. ⑥ The good start of credit is the watershed between steady growth and high growth, and the logical deduction of steady growth needs to be supported by data. We are optimistic that Q1 credit has made a good start, but may face early restrictions on the release of Spring Festival in January. If the credit is less than expected, infrastructure and other sectors will continue to pay attention to power grid transformation, pipe network investigation and agricultural safety. On the contrary, it will gradually turn to growth and enter the cashing period of steady growth.
Text summary
The Symposium on private enterprises is of special significance to the stability of a shares. ① After the two entrepreneur symposiums in 2018 and 2020, the growth rate of social finance has stabilized and rebounded significantly. The stabilization and recovery of the economy naturally requires the government to actively expand financial infrastructure, but also to allocate a lot of money, enhance the confidence of enterprises and residents, and expand the transmission of money to credit, so as to realize the expansion of investment and reproduction of the whole society. ② After two entrepreneur symposiums in 2018 and 2020, the stock market has obviously stabilized and rebounded. The direct impact of the entrepreneur Symposium on the stock market is to improve risk appetite, and then the loose policy and stability maintenance at the denominator will also be transmitted to the pessimistic expectation of molecular economy and profit. ③ The intensive provincial private enterprise symposium, social finance and the stabilization and recovery of the stock market can be expected. Since December 2021, 6 provinces and 25 cities have held private enterprise symposiums. All local private enterprise symposiums affirmed the important position of the private economy and stressed the determination to accelerate the development of private enterprises.
The Internet is expected to turn around. ① The Internet industry is expected to benefit from this round of private enterprise Symposium. The Internet is dominated by private enterprises and has been subject to continuous antitrust policy supervision since 2021. The private enterprise symposium has more obvious reversal of the confidence of Internet entrepreneurs. ② There has been a major inflection point in the attitude of Internet regulation. To prevent the disorderly expansion of capital from "initial results" to "important results", the senior management fully affirmed the regulatory effect. Qiushi magazine published Xi Jinping general secretary's "constantly strengthening, optimizing and expanding China's digital economy", emphasizing that the digital economy is a national strategy. ③ Internet regulatory boots are expected to land, and policy uncertainty is reduced. If the two sessions consider and pass the amendment to the anti monopoly law in 2022, it will mark the landing of Internet supervision boots, which will greatly reduce the uncertainty of regulatory policies. ④ Even if the Internet performance is difficult to improve significantly, the end of the regulatory cycle is expected to improve the valuation.
Credit is a watershed between steady growth and high growth. ① The determination to stabilize growth released at the economic work conference reduced the systemic risk of the stock market in 2022, but the market was worried about the landing effect of stable growth, so it simply interpreted according to the bottom line stability maintenance scheme. The logical deduction of steady growth needs data support. The credit of Q1 will be the key to a good start, that is, whether it can realize the transmission from wide currency to wide credit, which will directly affect the repair of pessimistic economic expectations. ② We are optimistic that Q1 credit has made a good start, but may face early restrictions on the release of Spring Festival in January. If the credit is less than expected, infrastructure and other sectors will continue to pay attention to power grid transformation, pipe network investigation and agricultural safety. On the contrary, it will gradually turn to growth and enter the cashing period of steady growth. Note: This article refers to 2022 this year and 2021 last year.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
