Zhou's point of view: treat the new fund objectively and pay attention to the stability of profit growth of wealth management
In the first two weeks of January, the new issuance of the fund was lower than expected, which put some pressure on the short-term stock price of the target of the big wealth management track, and the emotional impact was greater than the impact on the fundamentals. We believe that after the new issuance of funds has reached a record high for two consecutive years, the volume of stock funds is large, and the impact of stock application and redemption on retention is more obvious. Under the continuation of net subscription, we expect the retention to grow steadily, and the profit growth of the head company may exceed expectations. We pay attention to the follow-up performance data and continue to recommend the leading targets of big wealth management. At the same time, we continue to recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) with large market expectation difference.
Brokerage: the scale of fund establishment in the first two weeks of January was lower than expected, and the impact of new data on the annual growth was limited
(1) in the first two weeks and nine trading days of January, 31 equity + mixed funds were newly established, with a scale of 24.3 billion, and the average scale of a single fund was 780 million. Since the beginning of the year, the new issuance of funds has been lower than expected, and the average scale of a single fund is the same as 2021q4, which has not been significantly improved, lower than 1.5 billion of the issuance scale of a single fund in 2021. Under the neutral assumption of - 30% new issuance, 85% redemption rate (redemption rate = redemption share / subscription share, which is expected to be 79% in 2021) and zero increase in the net value of partial stock funds, it is estimated that the scale of partial stock and non stock ownership will be + 14% / + 18% respectively in 2022, and the average daily growth rate of non stock ownership will be more than 20%, It will still support the steady growth of the company's profits. (2) In terms of policy, the CSRC solicited opinions on the "Interim Provisions on the supervision of important goods base". Investors with a scale of more than 200 billion yuan or 50 million yuan will be selected. The allocation of important goods base investment needs to meet multiple indicators, and the risk reserve shall be withdrawn at the same time. It is expected that the product yield may be under pressure under the stricter supervision of important goods base, and access to a variety of goods base, short-term debt and other products may become a response; On January 14, the CSRC officially launched the DVP reform, mainly involving the proprietary and custody business of institutional investors. This reform established the relationship between securities and capital settlement on the basis of maintaining the existing transaction settlement system basically unchanged. It is conducive to enhancing the security of the settlement system, improving the efficiency of capital use and further attracting foreign investment. CSDCC will simultaneously implement the work of reducing the settlement provision, and realize that the minimum provision proportion of stock business will be reduced from 18% to 15% on average. (3) The securities business sector is in the double boom cycle of macro liquidity and industrial policies. It continues to be optimistic about the market of the sector and recommends leading securities companies in the main line of big wealth management and undervalued securities companies. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) .
Insurance: it is expected to have a weak start, the sector has defensive attributes, and pay attention to the credit improvement trend
We expect a good start in January, weak premium growth, a rebound in the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds in the near future, and the valuation and expectation of the insurance sector are at a historical low. At present, it has a defensive attribute. We recommend China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage to benefit AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , AIA;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk tip: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on securities companies and insurance profits; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
