The supply of automotive chips is still tight, and domestic alternatives usher in a good opportunity for development. According to AFS data, in 2021, the chip shortage led to a cumulative reduction of about 10.2 million vehicles in the global auto market, 3.178 million in North America, 2.954 million in Europe, 1.982 million in China, 1.74 million in other parts of Asia, 355000 in South America and 62000 in the Middle East / Africa. Among them, Asia is the region with the most serious reduction in automobile production in 2021, with a total reduction of more than 3.6 million vehicles. For 2022, AFS analysis shows that 767700 vehicles are expected to be reduced, including 174300 in North America, 280800 in Europe, 108200 in China, 163000 in other parts of Asia, 31400 in South America and 10000 in the Middle East and Africa. Microcontroller (MCU) has the highest shortage, followed by analog chips such as power semiconductor (IGBT) and power management.
TSMC's revenue reached a new high in 21q4 and the outlook for 2022 is optimistic. TSMC released the latest financial report of 21q4. Its revenue in the fourth quarter was US $15.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% and a month on month increase of 5.67%. The company's revenue continued to hit a new high. In 2021, TSMC's revenue was $56.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.9%. TSMC expects that the semiconductor market (excluding memory) will grow by 9% in 2022 and the chip OEM industry will grow by 20%. It is expected that the production capacity will remain tight throughout 2022. The company is confident to achieve a growth rate higher than the industry average. As for the performance guidelines, the company expects Q1 revenue to be between us $16.6-17.2 billion, with the median corresponding to a month on month increase of 7%. In terms of profitability, TSMC will increase its long-term realizable gross profit margin from 50% to 53%.
TSMC's capital expenditure increased significantly in 2022, and equipment and materials are expected to benefit fully. TSMC expects the capital expenditure this year to be between us $40 billion and US $44 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 33% to 47%, of which 70% to 80% of the capital budget will be used for the R & D of advanced process technology. Compared with the capital expenditure of US $30 billion in 2021 and US $14.9 billion in 2019, TSMC's capital expenditure has increased rapidly for many years. TSMC's high growth in capital expenditure guidance is expected to drive the demand for upstream equipment and materials, and relevant companies are expected to continue to benefit.
Miniled industry is booming, and manufacturers in the industry are actively expanding production. LED market this year, driven by miniled, automotive and backlight applications, the industry is optimistic about the market demand. According to cinno information, the rich mining of LED factories in Taiwan is expected to expand production by 50%. Red LED and miniled accounted for 30-40% and more than 20% of Fucai's revenue respectively, and the revenue ratio of the two major product lines reached 50%. In 2021, the company's performance was greatly boosted by the demand for miniled. Fucai said that the progress of large customers in pulling goods maintained its previous expectations. According to customer demand, Fucai will expand 20% of its miniled production capacity from 2021q4 to the first quarter of this year, This year's target production expansion is expected to reach 50%. With the gradual maturity of miniled backlight products, terminal manufacturers are gradually applying them to develop new products. BOE has mass produced 3.2 "2880 with miniled backlight × 28801200ppi, fastlcd product, apple 2021q1 released a 12.9-inch miniled backlight iPad pro. According to ledinside's prediction, the market scale of miniled backlight products is expected to exceed US $1 billion in 2023.
The silicon carbide industry has ushered in two orders, and the global leading enterprises have been laid out. Recently, there have been two big orders in the silicon carbide industry. HS2 high speed rail in the UK will use Hitachi's silicon carbide technology to build the world's most energy-saving and Europe's fastest train. The contract amount in the first phase is as high as 1.97 billion pounds (about 17.1 billion yuan), Vitesco technologies (WeiPai) 800V silicon carbide inverter has won a large order worth 1 billion euros (about 7.2 billion yuan) from an automobile manufacturer in North America. In addition to being applied to electric trains and electric vehicles, on January 11, 2022, starkfuture, a Swedish company, announced the launch of an off-road motorcycle mxervarg equipped with silicon carbide inverter; On January 13, 2022, Ricardo's official website announced that the U.S. government is funding its development of class 8 electric truck based on 800V silicon carbide inverter, and the operation efficiency of silicon carbide inverter of the project reaches 98.5%. Silicon carbide is constantly entering and developing new application scenarios with its excellent properties. With the development and maturity of electric train, electric vehicle, electric motorcycle and electric heavy truck market, the global demand for silicon carbide will further increase.
Huahong Wuxi added a large number of bidding equipment: according to the data of the electronic trading platform for bidding and tendering of mechanical and electrical products and the data of the electronic trading platform for bidding and tendering of mechanical and electrical products, Shanghai Huahong added 1 set of bid winning equipment this week, Huahong semiconductor (Wuxi) added 88 sets of bidding equipment and 52 sets of bid winning equipment this week. In terms of domestic equipment, Shanghai zhichunjing won the bid for 1 set of rear section baffle control sector cleaning equipment.
Investment suggestions: automotive electronics focus on Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) , Cubic Sensor And Instrument Co.Ltd(688665) ; In the SiC field, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) are recommended, and Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Roshow Technoiogy Co.Ltd(002617) , Phenix Optical Company Limited(600071) are concerned; Semiconductor equipment recommends Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.Ltd(300260) , Suzhou Uigreen Micro&Nano Technologies Co.Ltd(688661) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , and pays attention to Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Suzhou Hyc Technology Co.Ltd(688001) ; Miniled recommends Shenzhen Xinyichang Technology Co.Ltd(688383) , Hongli Zhihui Group Co.Ltd(300219) , pays attention to Shenzhen Refond Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(300241) , Shenzhen Longli Technology Co.Ltd(300752) , etc; IC design concerns Shanghai Belling Corp.Ltd(600171) , 3Peak Incorporated(688536) , Sg Micro Corp(300661) , Chipsea Technologies (Shenzhen) Corp.Ltd(688595) , Ninestar Corporation(002180) ; Folding screen focuses on Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) , Nbtm New Materials Group Co.Ltd(600114) , etc.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Domestic substitution is less than expected; Continuous risk of epidemic impact
