Shenzhou International will resume production in an orderly manner and continue to be optimistic about high-quality OEM enterprises
Key recommended / benefited targets this week:
(1) OEM leader: Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Shenzhou International, Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) , beneficiary: virgin;
(2) sports shoes and clothing retailer leader: taobo;
(3) sports leaders: Anta sports, Li Ning, benefiting target: Tebu International;
(4) Leisure Faucet: Hla Group Corp.Ltd(600398) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) ;
(5) subject matter of other sub sectors: Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) .
We believe that in 2022, the work performance was better than that of brands, mainly due to the weak performance of brands in 2021q4 under the influence of cold winter and repeated epidemic, 2022h1 will enter a high base, and the capacity of OEM enterprises is expected to accelerate the release under the normalization of epidemic. The international brand fy2022 gradually recovers, the online of Nike and other international brands gradually recovers and the marketing resources are improved. It is expected that the performance of fy2022 will be more flexible under the recovery of low base and supply chain. It is recommended to pay attention to excellent upstream manufacturing targets.
International brands continue to show signs of recovery on Alibaba platform
Data of Alibaba platform sports shoes and clothing week: in 2022w2 (2022.1.3-2022.1.9), the sales of shoes and clothing Taobao + tmall of various sports brands are: Li Ning 220 million yuan (+ 123%), Anta 151 million yuan (+ 113.00%), fila1.0% $2.8 billion (+ 54%), Uber $48 million (+ 32%), nike2.0% RMB 7.4 billion (+ 3%), adidas1.5% RMB 3.5 billion (+ 13%), NewBalance 0.5% 5.7 billion yuan (+ 47%), 100 million yuan (+ 276%), puma 4.9 billion yuan (+ 16%), andma 18 million yuan (+ 80%), the weekly data of international brands such as Nike and Adidas became positive, and international brands showed signs of gradual recovery.
This week focuses on the update of the company / beneficiary object
Shenzhou International: (1) Beilun lifted the level II response, the temporary closure management measures of the sealed and controlled area have been lifted, and the whole area is low-risk. The company announced that the production of Beilun factory can be resumed orderly from January 16. The loss of garment production caused by the shutdown of Ningbo factory accounts for about 2% of the company's normal production capacity in 2022. We expect that under the measures of capacity recovery such as local Chinese new year, the impact of this round of epidemic on the company's total production capacity is limited. (2) Fast retailing group fy2022q1, the parent company of UNIQLO, realized a revenue of 627.39 billion yen (+ 1.2%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 93.5 billion yen (+ 33%). UNIQLO has now become the second largest customer of Shenzhou International. As of 2021h1, the order revenue of Shenzhou International from UNIQLO was 2.442 billion yuan, accounting for 21.48% (+ 1.88 PCT). The core customers are growing steadily, the demand side of the company is ideal, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to be relieved with the steady release of production capacity and the gradual recovery of China's production capacity.
Tebu International: the net profit is expected to increase by more than 70% in 2021, mainly due to: (1) upgrading of main brand channels: launching 9-generation stores with larger area and better retail experience; (2) Successfully launched iconic, functional and leisure products, such as running shoes 160x, 260, Shaolin, xDNA and other products; (3) After the rectification of the e-commerce and children's business of Tebu's main brand in terms of brand, product and operation, the revenue growth accelerated. In terms of water, 2021
Offline stores achieved double-digit growth, and e-commerce and children's wear recorded high double-digit growth. The company has achieved the goal of the first year of the five-year plan. The main brand of Tebu will increase by 23% in 2021, including 30% in 2021h2. The losses of new brands are within the company's guidelines. The 2022h1 main brand is expected to grow by 30% +, the 2022h2 growth rate is not less than 25%, and the annual growth rate is more than 25%.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation has deteriorated outside China. The shortage of international brand supply chain has intensified.
