The eight character policy of pharmaceutical investment in the first half of 2022: consumption growth and deep value.
Deep value can be understood as low valuation, low share price position, good chip structure and changes in investment logic expectation. Industries with low valuation include traditional Chinese medicine, blood products, pharmacies, large traditional Sinochem companies and circulation, etc. here, we choose some areas with imagination for future expected changes.
Consumption growth: it goes without saying that medicine is under high pressure from medical insurance payment, and this trend cannot be alleviated. National medical insurance is a public expenditure. The annual growth rate declines with the economic slowdown. This part of the incremental funds is mainly used for doctors' service expenditure, and the growth of the whole industry relying on medical insurance will be affected to some extent. 2019-2021 of the bull market, the main force of the increase is basically the subdivision of medical insurance. CXO, vaccines, medical services and so on, their valuation bubble is also a market hedge. The company's products have the ability to leave hospitals and medical insurance. Most enterprises more or less transfer their product channels to pharmacies and the Internet. Most of the successful transformation here are traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods and consumer medical devices. This is also the general direction we will choose in the future. Pharmaceutical stocks with the attribute of consumer goods, not to mention medical insurance. The combination of deep value and consumption growth is better, mostly traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods and consumer medical equipment and health care products.
Views of each segment
Epidemic related sectors are still companies in the covid-19 specific drug industry chain, and can also pay attention to low-level blood products companies. Innovative drugs, industry differentiation, the leader has fallen out of value, but the bottom wandering time is difficult to predict. The change of policy environment outside China determines that the DCF valuation model should be greatly adjusted. CXO is affected by monetary and industrial policies outside China, and its performance in 2022h1 is not affected. It is necessary to observe the change of contract liabilities in 2022h1. For scientific services, the overall valuation is high, the industry is scattered, and the system stability is not good, so it is temporarily impossible to benchmark companies such as Thermo Fisher and BD. Most of them are in the same direction as CXO. They can focus on some companies with undervalued and scalable business. Vaccines, focus on mRNA and other new technologies and short-term performance explosive companies. Medical services, focusing on the rehabilitation medicine encouraged by policies and highly reproducible. API, focus on new business growth and cycle reversal. Traditional Chinese medicine, which has come out of the industry trough, is not just a short-term repair opportunity. First, look for "Mao and Pian", and related products can also be said to be resource products; Second, OTC consumer goods are clearly upward; Third, traditional Chinese medicine formula granules, high β The investment market is large, but whether it can match the overvalued value depends on the future situation of medical insurance intervention at the payment end and local competition; Fourth, it remains to be seen how prescription drugs and medical insurance support. But one thing is certain that the leading companies of traditional Chinese medicine prescription drugs have come out and started a new round of growth with multiple exclusive variety strategies. Chemical drugs, undervalued, have hedging function, and have little valuation elasticity. Drugstore, with reasonable valuation and good sector stability. Circulation valuation is at the bottom, but the valuation elasticity is not large.
Focus on the company:
Key recommended Keywords: Traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods, traditional Chinese medicine prescription drugs, consumer medicine, scientific services, pharmacies, prescription drugs and pharmaceutical circulation. Traditional Chinese medicine sector: Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Zhongxin Pharmaceutical Group Corporation Limited(600329) and Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) ; Consumer medical care: Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Yantai Zhenghai Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(300653) ; Large pharmaceutical enterprises: Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) etc; Create Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain: Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) etc; API: Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) etc; Other stocks: Humanwell Healthcare (Group) Co.Ltd(600079) , Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002422) , Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , China National Medicines Corporation Ltd(600511) , Jointown Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600998) , etc.
Risk warning: market fluctuation risk caused by too fast short-term rise; Risk of policy implementation falling short of expectations
