Price: steel price differentiation this week. This week, the price of 20mm HRB400 thread was 4750 yuan / ton, down from – 0.4% last week, and the price of hot rolling 3.0mm was 4960 yuan / ton, up from + 0.2% last week. Raw materials rose this week. Port iron ore prices rose this week compared with last week; Coke prices rose compared with last week; Scrap prices were flat with last week.
Profit: the profit of rebar fell this week. In terms of long-term process, it is estimated that the gross profit per ton of rebar, hot rolling and cold rolling in the industry this week is – 139 yuan / ton, – 102 yuan / ton and – 131 yuan / ton respectively compared with the previous week. In terms of short process, the profit of EAF steel fell month on month this week compared with the previous week.
Output and inventory: this week, the weekly ratio of rebar output increased, the weekly ratio of warehouses of the five steel plants decreased, and the weekly ratio of social warehouses increased. In terms of output, the output of large steel varieties on Friday was 9.35 million tons, with a weekly increase of 70800 tons, of which the output of construction steel increased by 28200 tons, the output of sector increased by 42600 tons, and the output of rebar increased by 38600 tons to 2843900 tons this week. In terms of different steelmaking methods, the output of long and short process deformed steel bars this week are 2545400 tons and 298500 tons respectively, and the cycle to ring ratio is + 84600 tons and – 46000 tons respectively. In terms of inventory, on Friday, the total social inventory of large steel varieties increased by 283000 tons to 9.155 million tons month on month, the total inventory of steel mills increased by 4.1705 million tons, and the weekly ratio decreased by 92900 tons, of which the social inventory of rebar increased by 260500 tons and the plant inventory decreased by 64800 tons. In terms of apparent consumption and steel turnover, it is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.6482 million tons, with a decrease of 60800 tons on a weekly basis. The daily average of construction steel turnover this week is 119200 tons, with a decrease of 19.42% on a weekly basis.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, the downstream of the demand side has entered the off-season of consumption. It is estimated that the apparent consumption of rebar this week is 2.6482 million tons, and the daily average turnover of construction steel is 119200 tons, which is at a low level; The steel output at the supply side increased slightly this week, the “Winter Olympics” is approaching, the expectation of production restriction in the north is becoming stricter, and the steel output is difficult to rise continuously; Raw material prices were relatively strong during the replenishment period before the Spring Festival of downstream steel mills, and the profits of steel mills declined. In the medium and long term, the “14th five year plan” for raw material industry of the Ministry of industry and information technology clearly states that by 2025, the production capacity of key raw materials and bulk products such as crude steel and cement will only be reduced but not increased. Under the background of “double carbon”, the long-term limited steel supply is expected to continue. On the demand side, in anticipation of the relaxation of real estate and the stable growth policy of infrastructure, the confidence of the steel market has gradually warmed up, which will support the steel price. On the raw material side, the iron ore port inventory is high, and the coal output gradually recovers under the stimulation of policies. As the replenishment of steel mills before the Spring Festival is coming to an end, the raw material price will be relatively weaker than the finished product price. On the whole, the steel supply has been limited for a long time. With the steady growth of real estate and infrastructure and other policy effects, the demand side gradually appears to support the steel price, while the supply of raw materials is relatively loose. As the replenishment of steel mills before the festival is coming to an end, the subsequent raw material price probability is weaker than that of finished products, and the profits of steel mills are expected to pick up. Suggestions: 1) ordinary steel sector: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) ; 2) Special steel sector: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) ; 3) Superalloy target: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the demand for real estate steel has fallen precipitously; Steel prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly.
