This week’s view:
This week, the computer industry fluctuated in a narrow range and the index fell slightly, but the digital RMB sector continued to be large-scale and fluctuated upward, which is gradually becoming the main line of the market. It is judged that with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games (multi currency scene display), the sector is expected to usher in the main wave. The bank it sector occupies the advantage of undervalued value + 22-year high boom + strong catalysis, and is the preferred variety of institutions. Under the background of the multi currency market gathering market attention, other sectors of the computer industry also have a restless trend. Looking back on the events of this week, there is a major event in policy and industry, or the trigger factor of the future market. It is suggested to deeply layout energy it.
Policy: on January 12, the State Council issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy. The plan is highly consistent with the previous policy setting, highlighting the high-level determination to promote the development of digital economy, especially industrial digitization. Judging that many main tracks in the computer field are expected to become the focus of policy support, among which the focus is on energy it / Internet as an important component of new energy infrastructure – because it is at the intersection of industrial policy and downstream demand, and at the starting point of the outbreak of the five-year dimension, it is the industrial engine of it development in the 14th five year plan.
Industry: on January 14, the State Grid disclosed that the power grid investment in 2022 will reach a new high, exceeding 500 billion yuan, a record high. We believe that the current round of power grid investment of China Southern Power Grid and State Grid is huge and continues to exceed market expectations. In terms of China Southern Power Grid, the group has explicitly released the investment plan for the 14th five year plan, and will invest 670 billion yuan in power grid investment, with a year-on-year increase of 36% during the 13th Five Year Plan period. As for the State Grid, Xin Baoan, chairman of the board of directors, once said that the total investment in the power grid during the 14th Five Year Plan period will reach 350 billion US dollars (2.23 trillion yuan). Based on this calculation, the power grid investment of the two power grid companies during the 14th Five Year Plan period will exceed 2.9 trillion yuan, 13% higher than the total investment during the 13th Five Year Plan period and 45% higher than the investment during the 12th Five Year Plan period. We believe that smart grid is one of the core transformation directions of the two power grid companies, and with the catalysis of double carbon goals, clean energy access such as distributed photovoltaic and power market-oriented reforms such as time of use price will further stimulate the demand for power informatization. In terms of industrial links, UHV transmission and distribution side will be the focus of transformation. 1) In terms of UHV: according to the report of China Energy News on January 11, 2022, during the “14th five year plan”, the State Grid plans to build the “24 AC and 14 DC” UHV project, involving more than 30000 kilometers of lines, 340 million KVA transformation capacity and a total investment of 380 billion yuan. In 2022, the State Grid plans to start 13 UHV lines of “10 AC and 3 DC”. Under the background of ultra-high voltage construction exceeding expectations, it is expected that the superposition of DC capacity expansion and the introduction of flexible DC technology will bring incremental system transformation on the transmission side of smart grid. In addition, core hardware suppliers Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) will benefit synchronously. 2) Distribution network side level: Although the state grid plan has not published the details of the distribution network investment plan, it is expected that the State Grid will remain the same with reference to the distribution network investment of the South grid of 320 billion yuan (accounting for half of the total investment). We believe that the demand for distribution network construction and transformation is a national proposition, which is not limited to regions. In order to cope with the increase of load and the proportion of clean installed capacity, distribution network construction and transformation will be vigorously promoted during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The construction of distribution network can bring revenue growth to both design companies and construction companies. It is suggested to focus on it.
On the whole, the strong investment in smart grid by China Southern Power Grid + State Grid has become a deterministic trend, which is highly consistent with the digital planning of the 14th five year plan & new infrastructure expectation. The overall idea of the plan issued by China Southern Power Grid and the plan to be issued by State Grid will remain consistent, and the double carbon strategy will be firmly implemented. In this context, with the accelerated demand for energy it, we believe that private enterprises have more advantages than traditional state-owned enterprises in power it due to their own system, incentive and innovation. We recommend (power selling end) energy SaaS leader Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Dongfang Electronics Co.Ltd(000682) , and (power generation end) domestic energy BIM software leader Beijing Forever Technology Co.Ltd(300365) .
Computer – overall investment proposal, focusing on six main lines:
1. Main line of cloud computing SaaS: focus on recommending enterprise SaaS leader Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , office software leader Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (joint coverage with small and medium-sized disks), and super Integration Leader Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) .
2. Main line of financial technology: focus on recommending securities it Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) and life payment Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) (jointly covered by communication groups). In addition, Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) and Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) welcome the upswing of the boom.
3. Main line of intelligent driving: it is recommended to focus on the on-board OS leader Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , the intelligent cockpit leader Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (joint coverage of vehicle groups), and the high-precision map leader Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) as the key beneficiaries.
4. Main line of artificial intelligence: the intelligent voice leader Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) is recommended. Meanwhile, yunzhisheng and other companies that will soon be listed are also the beneficiaries.
5. Main line of network security: focus on recommending emerging security double leaders Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) + Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) as a subdivided emerging security leader will also benefit deeply. Other benefit targets include: Venustech Group Inc(002439) , Xiamen Meiya Pico Information Co.Ltd(300188) , etc.
6. Main line of Xinchuang: domestic WPS leading manufacturer Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) (jointly covered with small and medium-sized disk groups), domestic middleware leading Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) , domestic PDF leading Fujian Foxit Software Development Joint Stock Co.Ltd(688095) , and domestic server leading Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) .
Risk tips:
Systemic risks, the landing of scientific and technological innovation policies is less than expected, and the game between China and the United States is intensified.
