Industry Overview: the demand for nighttime entertainment is strong and rises by taking advantage of the new consumption wave
Taverns are essentially wine retailers selling social concepts. Compared with other nightlife entertainment places, taverns are small and beautiful. The booming night economy, the slightly drunk economy of young groups and the social economy of meeting friends with wine will promote the development of the pub industry.
Market scale: broad market space, sinking market or rapid growth
The prosperity of China's Tavern industry is high, and the market scale is expected to grow at a compound growth rate of 19% from 2020 to 2025. Young people in small towns with money and leisure, strong social demand and lack of entertainment methods may be the main customers of the tavern industry, and sinking the market will become the focus of industry development. In 2019, China had only 0.3 pubs per 10000 people. If the number of pubs in China in China increased to the level of penetration in Britain, the United States, China, Taiwan and China, the number of pubs in Hongkong reached 99, 28, 21 and 140 thousand respectively.
Competition pattern: the industry concentration is low, and the leading incubation is imminent
China's Tavern industry is relatively decentralized. The participants of the track can be divided into Qingba mode, "meal + wine" mode and cross-border mode. We select the business model analysis of the leaders of various business forms: ① Helens: Based on "wine zero", positioning the cost performance; ② II. Ma tavern: advocate "light social networking" and large-scale expansion; ③ Blabar Naixue Wine House: comply with "her economy" and upgrade tea consumption. We believe that "people + products + expansion + marketing + extension" will build the core competitiveness of industry leaders.
Stone from another mountain: the British pub industry is highly mature
In terms of industry scale, the British pub industry is in a mature stage at this stage, and the number of bars has gradually decreased since 2000; In terms of competition pattern, the industry chain rate is high, Cr4 is about 25.5%; In terms of track participants, the strategies of head players are different. Young's is positioned as the most high-end, JD wetherspoon is positioned as the most common, Mitchells & butiers is positioned as the middle end, and greenking starts to streamline brand integration. We believe that at this stage, the Chinese pub industry can benchmark the development period of the British pub industry, and the development environment is better. We select two giants in the British pub industry for analysis, ① JD wetherspoon: wine and food are parallel to build a national pub brand; ② Greenking: multi brand collaborative development and multi business keep pace.
Thoughts on core issues
① why has the pub industry started to scale up in recent years? ② Direct or franchise mode is better? ③ Which is better, Qingba, meal + wine and cross-border mode? ④ What are the competitive barriers of chain tavern brands?
Risk tips
The duration of covid-19 pneumonia is uncertain; Store expansion is less than expected risk; Competitive risk of pub industry; Risk of sharp fluctuations in raw material prices; Food safety risk.
