Key investment points
Thinking this week: the theme of anti epidemic rises again, focusing on detection innovation cdmo industrial chain. According to gisaid’s official website and American CDC data, Omicron mutants in the United States and around the world gradually dominate, the number of infected people continues to rise, and the infection rate and severe disease rate are not low.
This week, companies related to anti epidemic detection reagents generally rose (such as Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) up 35.0%, Getein Biotech Inc(603387) up 25.9%, Tellgen Corporation(300642) up 24.5%, Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) up 23.9%, Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) up 20.5%, including home self inspection covid-19 antigen kit related beneficiary companies Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) up 49.1%), covid-19 Zhonghe antibody and small molecule innovative drugs companies (such as Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) up 25.53% and Yunding Xinyao up 17.1%) Cdmo supply chain ( Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) up 12.9% and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) up 10.5%) performed well.
Omicron’s short-term catalysis may lead to cdmo’s short and medium-term performance exceeding expectations. When the global epidemic continues to fluctuate, the logic of global industrial transfer is expected to continue to accelerate. Under the premise of deterministic and high growth of the performance of local cdmo enterprises in 2022, the investable value in 2023 or even longer dimensions will gradually highlight. In the case of repeated outbreaks and continuous evolution of mutants, we believe that we can still focus on tracking the possibility of excess returns brought by the above detection, innovation and CXO related track enterprises through multi-dimensional breakthrough such as R & D, channel and internationalization.
Investment suggestion: may continue to benefit the target. CXO: Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) etc. IVD: Shanghai Runda Medical Technology Co.Ltd(603108) , Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) etc; Innovative drugs: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Yunding Xinyao, tengshengbo medicine, etc.
This week’s performance: the mood picked up, led by medical devices
This week, the pharmaceutical sector rose 2.82%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.81 percentage points, ranking the penultimate in all industries. In terms of trading volume, the turnover of the pharmaceutical industry this week was 750.4 billion yuan, accounting for 14.0% of the total turnover of all a shares, up 2.2pct month on month, 5.9pct higher than the central level in the past 18 years. As of January 14, 2022, the overall valuation of the pharmaceutical sector (historical TTM, overall method, excluding negative values) was 34 times, with a month on month increase of 0.9pct, which was significantly lower than the central level since 2011 (pe38 times). The valuation premium rate of the pharmaceutical industry relative to the CSI 300 was 163.7%, an increase of 12.8pct over the previous week, significantly lower than the central level in the past four years (182.3%).
According to the classification of wind CITIC medicine, the market performance of all fine molecular sectors of biomedicine was significantly differentiated this week, including medical devices (up 6.3%), biomedicine (up 4.4%) and chemical raw materials (up 3.6%). Different from the rise last week, the pharmaceutical circulation was the only falling sector this week (down 2.2%). Considering that the classification of CITIC pharmaceutical involves cross businesses of some companies, according to the classification of key companies of Zheshang pharmaceutical, medical devices and characteristic APIs rose sharply this week (up 10.3% and 7.5% respectively), and medical services rose 4.6%. Medical services and traditional Chinese medicine fell the most, down 1.3% and 2.1% respectively. Among them, the medical device sector was mainly Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) (up 35.0%), Getein Biotech Inc(603387) (up 25.9%), Tellgen Corporation(300642) (up 24.5%), Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) (up 23.9%) and other sectors that benefited from covid-19 testing related services. The characteristic API sector was mainly driven by Jiangxi Fushine Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300497) (up 25.3%) and Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) (up 22.2%). In medical services, Guangzhou Kingmed Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(603882) (down 8.6%) and Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) (down 8.5%) were significantly corrected, while Dong-E-E-Jiao Co.Ltd(000423) (down 8.2%), Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) (down 5.1%) and Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) (down 4.9%) drove the decline of traditional Chinese medicine.
Pharmaceutical investment strategy in 2022: grasp manufacturing and welcome innovation
We suggest that investors should break the “core assets” and “sector concept” in order to look at the investment opportunities in the upstream and manufacturing links with the industrial chain thinking, and the innovative medicine and equipment will continue to survive the fittest during the transition period. We believe that in 2022, medicine should adhere to the investment strategy of “grasping manufacturing and welcoming innovation”.
Specifically, it is recommended to focus on:
1) manufacturing sector: API, cdmo and other subdivided fields, and Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Hainan Poly Pharm.Co.Ltd(300630) are recommended.
2) upstream: in the fields of pharmaceutical equipment, reagents and consumables, Sensong international, Tofflon Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(300171) , Shanghai Titan Scientific Co.Ltd(688133) , Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) are recommended, and Qingdao Haier Biomedical Co.Ltd(688139) , Zhejiangtailin Bioengineering Co.Ltd(300813) , Truking Technology Limited(300358) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) are concerned.
3) innovation: for international equipment and drug companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , minimally invasive medicine, Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) , Baiji Shenzhou, Xinda biology, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , kangfang biology, etc.
4) others: consumer attribute, medical service, innovative supporting industry companies, recommend Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , pay attention to Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Topchoice Medical Co.Inc(600763) , Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , etc
Risk tips
Changes in industrial policies; The price of core products exceeded expectations; R & D progress is less than expected.
