Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by – 1.63% and – 1.35% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by – 0.85%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. Since 2022 (nine trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 3.26% and – 4.76% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 1.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index. In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by – 0.85%, ranking 10th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, six of the 29 CITIC primary industries rose. The top three industries were medicine, non-ferrous metals and power equipment, with an increase of 2.82%, 1.61% and 1.22% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 1.11%, ranking ninth among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, six of the 29 CITIC’s primary industries have risen. The top three industries are banking, textile and garment and petroleum and petrochemical, with an increase of 1.82%, 1.65% and 1.48% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were supermarkets, department stores and professional markets, with an increase of 3.20%, 0.39% and – 1.82% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are supermarkets, home appliance 3C chains and professional markets, with an increase of 6.17%, 0.00% and – 0.95% respectively.
In the past week, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 46 companies rose, 2 companies were flat and 45 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) , Zhongbai Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000759) and Sanjiang Shopping Club Co.Ltd(601116) , with increases of 25.78%, 15.22% and 13.04% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2022), 62 companies have increased, 3 companies have remained unchanged and 28 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies with growth rates are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) and Beijing Urban-Rural Commercial (Group) Co.Ltd(600861) , with growth rates of 62.70%, 29.54% and 21.60% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Recently, the retail sector has been more active. In addition to the concepts of digital currency, artificial diamonds and anti inflation, there are also the concepts of three children, duty-free stores and epidemic recovery. On the whole, small market value stocks and heavyweights in the retail sector have higher attention than before. However, from the current fundamental situation, except for the outstanding offline retail situation of gold and jewelry, other sub industries have no good fundamental recovery performance. Therefore, we believe that the current sector activity is mainly due to the activity and expected reflection on the eve of the Spring Festival. In view of the relatively short spring festival market, we hope investors will act cautiously according to their ability. We are still optimistic about the gold jewelry sector. We believe that the biggest market of retail in 2022 is in the gold jewelry sector. Investors can focus on key companies such as Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . Suggestions for next week: Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Rainbow Digital Commercial Co.Ltd(002419) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) , Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) , JD.
Risk analysis:
The growth of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
