Crude oil: oil prices continue to rise this week and are expected to fluctuate at medium and high levels. As of January 14, Brent and WTI oil prices reached US $86.06/barrel and US $83.82/barrel respectively, up 5.27% and 6.24% respectively compared with last week; In terms of the weekly average price, the weekly average price rose by 4.03% and 4.82% month on month respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Brent and WTI oil prices have risen by more than 10%. We judge that the oil price is still expected to fluctuate at a medium high level in 2022.
Inventory conversion: this week’s crude oil has a positive return and propane has a negative return. According to the model we built, the average profit and loss of this week’s crude oil inventory conversion is 34.2 yuan / ton and – 38.9 yuan / ton year to date; The average profit and loss of propane inventory conversion this week is – 204 yuan / ton and – 284 yuan / ton since the beginning of the year.
Price rise and fall: the prices of lithium carbonate, DMC and coke increased significantly this week. Among the 182 products we focused on tracking, 82 products increased compared with last week, accounting for about 45%; 27% of the product prices were flat and 28% of the product prices fell. Products with large price increases this week include butadiene, aniline, dimethyl ether, lithium carbonate (industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate, dimethyl cyclosiloxane (DMC), lithium carbonate (battery grade), isobutene, dimethyl carbonate, coke, etc. Products with large price drop include soda ash (light), soda ash (heavy), yellow phosphorus, 1,4-butanediol, HDI, vitamin C (99%), vitamin D3 (500000 IU / g), PVC paste resin (glove material), polyacrylamide (20 million anions), spandex (40d), etc.
Price difference rise and fall: PBT and chemical fiber increased significantly this week. Among the 140 product price differences we focused on tracking, 66 price differences increased compared with last week. PBT price difference (PTA), butadiene price difference (C4), urea price difference (gas head), phthalic anhydride price difference (o-xylene), DOP price difference (o-xylene), polyester chip (semi gloss) price difference (PTA), dimethyl ether price difference (coal), nylon fiber (POY) price difference (chip), polyester chip (gloss) price difference (PTA) Viscose staple fiber price difference (cotton staple), etc. Carbon black price difference (coal tar), polypropylene price difference (methanol), butadiene rubber price difference (butadiene), styrene butadiene rubber price difference (butadiene), propylene price difference (propane), heavy soda ash price difference (ammonia alkali method), PVC paste resin (glove material) price difference (calcium carbide), heavy soda ash price difference (combined alkali method), yellow phosphorus price difference (phosphate rock) Propylene oxide price difference (propylene), etc.
It is suggested that the market performance of chemical products is differentiated this week, and we are optimistic about the performance of undervalued and growth stocks. 1) Continue to be optimistic about the economic performance of the coal calcium carbide PVC industrial chain under the tight supply and demand of calcium carbide, and focus on Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) (002092. SZ) and Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) (600075. SH). 2) Since mid and late September 2021, with the rise and fall of commodity prices, the chemical industry has experienced a wave of deep correction. At present, some stocks have low valuations and have the value of bargain hunting allocation. Recommend investment opportunities for relevant undervalued stocks, such as Sinopec (600028. SH), a midstream and downstream integrated enterprise, the leading enterprise of modified plastics Qingdao Gon Technology Co.Ltd(002768) (002768. SZ), and the leading enterprises of chemical fiber industry chain Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225. SH), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233. Sh). 3) We are optimistic about the growth performance of leading enterprises with increased performance due to large-scale business expansion. We mainly recommend Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co.Ltd(002648) (002648. SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493. SZ), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (600689. SH), etc.
Risk tips: the risk that the production and sales of products are less than expected, the risk of product price / price difference falling, etc.
