Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on January 7, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 413.3 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 4.6 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 240.7 million barrels, an increase of 8 million barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 129.4 million barrels, an increase of 2.5 million barrels per week; Propane inventory was 6237.9 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.351 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on January 7, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.7 million barrels / day, a weekly decrease of 100000 barrels / day and an increase of 700000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On January 14, there were 601 drilling rigs in the United States, with an increase of 13 in the week and 228 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 191, with an increase of 50 per week and 30 per year. Among them, there are 492 oil production rigs in the United States, an increase of 11 in the week and 205 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were butadiene (up 51.5%), epichlorohydrin (up 17.8%) and thermal coal (Qinhuangdao) (up 14.2%); The top three declines were yellow phosphorus (down 13.7%), BDO apron (down 13.1%) and sulfuric acid (down 9.2%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were butadiene (up 33.7%), chloroform (up 32.6%) and DMC (up 27.7%); The top three declines were maleic anhydride (down 32.6%), yellow phosphorus (down 28.0%) and acrylonitrile (down 25.0%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are R410A price difference (up 200.0%), butadiene price difference (up 120.6%) and ternary battery price difference (up 85.2%); The top three declines were polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 74.0%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 47.9%) and PX (down 42.6%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were PTA (up 995.2%), calcium carbide PVC (up 219.3%) and oil head ethylene glycol (up 150.1%); The top three declines were: coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 134.3%), PX (down 73.2%) and maleic anhydride (benzene method) price difference (down 72.8%).
Investment proposal and investment object
We believe that this is a good time to lay out large private refining and chemical enterprises. In 2021, due to the tightened approval of major refining and chemical projects, the stock prices of major refining and chemical companies experienced a sharp decline, corresponding to less than 10 times the valuation in 2022. At the current time node, the approval of large refining and chemical projects is expected to be relaxed, and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) have tens of billions of capital expenditure in the field of downstream new materials, reopening the growth space. In addition, the radical transformation of overseas refining and chemical enterprises has left a supply gap, which makes us confident in the prosperity of large refining and chemical enterprises in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) (002493, buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346, buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) (601233, buy).
Risk tips
Crude oil prices fluctuate sharply; The demand is less than expected; The approval of large-scale refining and chemical projects is still tightened; The progress of new material project is not as expected.
