I. focus this week - Omicron epidemic situation and development conjecture, and pay attention to China covid-19 small molecule R & D company
In the early morning of January 8, 2022, 2 cases of Omicron positive were detected in Tianjin, and became the first Chinese mainland to spread Omicron native local social communication city. As of 14:00 on January 13, 2022, 148 positive infections had been reported in this round of epidemic in Tianjin. Omicron infection cases had also occurred in Shenzhen, Anyang, Dalian, Zhuhai, Beijing and other places. The covid-19 epidemic distributed in many places once again ignited extensive discussion on Omicron in all sectors of society. In this week's weekly report, we start with the characteristics of infection caused by Omicron mutant, summarize the research data of real-world epidemic situation in many countries around the world, make a reasonable guess about the future trend of covid-19 epidemic situation, and comprehensively comb the research and development progress of covid-19 oral small molecule drugs, the current mainstream mechanism.
Omicron triggered the rapid intensification of the global covid-19 epidemic. The mutant has spread to 138 countries and regions around the world, resulting in a surge in new cases of covid-19 since December 2021. Up to 50 mutations, more than 30 loci are concentrated in spike protein, which helps Omicron quickly occupy a dominant proportion in the global pandemic of covid-19 strains. Omicron spreads rapidly, causes mild disease and has a high probability of immune escape. The change of infection ability in specific areas reduces the pathogenicity and improves the infectivity of Omicron strain. The extensive mutation in S protein region gives it the possibility of immune escape from existing vaccines and neutralizing antibodies. Vaccination booster may be one of the means to effectively reduce Omicron infection. If the epidemic situation intensifies in the future, Omicron specific vaccine should be developed as a booster as soon as possible to promote vaccination on a large scale.
"Mass immunization" is still not desirable under Omicron's strong transmission power. Interconnection among countries around the world is inevitable, and the wide flow of highly infectious variants is inevitable. No country can survive the epidemic wave. Although the pathogenicity of Omicron may not be as good as several previous mainstream mutants, and the admission rate and mortality have been greatly reduced, the pandemic caused by its strong transmission power in a short time will still have a strong impact on the normal social operation, and "mass immunization" is still not desirable. In the current round of Omicron epidemic, the United States is still in the period of accelerated transmission, so it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of medical run; The infection rate in Britain has begun to decline after universal transmission; China's "dynamic clearing" is facing the severe challenge of Omicron, and the epidemic prevention policy may be reasonably adjusted this year.
Covid-19 small molecule research and development continues to be hot. The variation of Omicron spike protein can reduce the interaction between neutralizing antibody and vaccine, but has little effect on small molecule antiviral drugs. The combination of "covid-19 vaccine + specific drugs" can really reduce the impact of the virus on normal social life. Small molecule oral drugs with accurate curative effect and convenient use have great clinical application and commercial development value.
II. Market review of innovative medicine stocks in the pharmaceutical sector:
This week Staidson(Beijing) Biopharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300204) , Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) - u, Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) - u, Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Chengdu Easton Bio Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(688513) ranked among the top 5 in Shanghai and Shenzhen pharmaceutical innovative drugs. The last 5 are Huadong Medicine Co.Ltd(000963) , Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) , Livzon Pharmaceutical Group Inc(000513) , Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) .
The top 5 gainers and losers in the pharmaceutical innovative drug sector of Hong Kong stocks this week are Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Geli pharmaceutical-b, Yunding xinyao-b, Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) pharmaceutical and Xiansheng pharmaceutical. The last 5 are tengshengbo medicine-b, Peijia medical-b, kangnoah-b, platinum medicine-b and Jiahe biology-b.
III. medium and long term perspective of innovative pharmaceutical industry:
In recent years, with the influx of capital stimulated by policies, China has ushered in a gale of innovation. China's innovation market has strong policy attributes. On October 8, 2017, the two offices jointly issued the opinions on deepening the reform of review and approval system and encouraging innovation of drugs and medical devices, which opened the first wave of innovation. With the revision of drug registration management measures, drug negotiation and the introduction of medical insurance dynamic adjustment mechanism, the top-level design of the policy has completely solved the problem of insufficient innovation power in history due to limited R & D resources, non-standard Review & slow progress, low bidding efficiency, high difficulty in admission and difficult connection of medical insurance. Under the stimulation of Programmatic Policies, combined with the promotion of the science and innovation board and the registration system in recent years, the capital of innovative medicine racetrack swarmed, and the financing of innovative medicine enterprises accelerated, which also led China's innovative medicine investment into the gale mouth era. Driven by a good policy environment and capital, China's innovation rise has accelerated. Domestic innovative drugs have entered the harvest period one after another, and more heavy innovative products will be approved and listed in China in the next few years.
What cannot be ignored is that the time window for "general innovation" given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter, the cost control of medical insurance is becoming stricter, and the track is becoming more and more crowded. We have slowly entered the moment of "selected high-quality innovation". At present, the homogenization of innovative drug research and development in China is more serious, and the homogenization of targeted drugs is the most serious. The era of "blockbuster" when innovative drugs are listed has slowly passed, and the time window period of "general innovation" given by the policy is becoming shorter and shorter. We believe that China's innovative drug market has slowly entered the moment of "selected high-quality innovation" from "general innovation". In the future, the homogenization competition of McAb hot targets will continue to be intense, and the homogenized products will gradually lose their competitiveness. New technologies, scarce technology platforms, differentiated treatment fields and innovative drug delivery methods may bring a better competitive pattern to enterprises, and companies with technology precipitation are expected to stand out.
Risk tips: 1) negative policies continue to exceed expectations; 2) The growth rate of the industry was lower than expected.
