Performance of the banking sector: the banking index fluctuated and adjusted this week, falling slightly by 1.0% throughout the week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.96pct, still with relative income performance; In terms of individual stock performance, Changshu (+ 7.6%), Chengdu (+ 6.9%), Sunong (+ 5.1%), Jiangsu (+ 4.4%) and other stocks led the increase. The stock prices of urban rural commercial banks in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other regions strengthened, boosted by factors such as expected business performance, good regional economy and stable credit supply. What information does the performance express of 9 listed banks convey?
1) the revenue growth is supported, and the overall profit continues the upward trend. Most banks' revenue growth increased quarter on quarter, which is expected to mainly benefit from the steady expansion of the asset side and the improvement of quarter on quarter under the pressure of narrowing interest margin. In terms of profit growth, except that Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) actively increased provision, which dragged down the performance of profit growth month on month, the profit growth of other banks increased slightly quarter on quarter, with an increase of 0.2-3.2pct. On the whole, on the basis of the good performance of the third quarterly report of 21 years, the overall profit growth still continues a stable upward trend.
2) the asset side growth slowed down slightly, the asset structure was optimized quarter on quarter, and the interest margin is expected to be generally stable. The expansion speed of most banks was generally stable, but due to seasonal factors, the growth rate slowed down slightly quarter on quarter. The growth rate of credit was mixed quarter on quarter, with the growth rate at a high level of 10.8% - 23.6%. Among them, urban rural commercial banks benefited from the strong economic vitality of the region, and the credit growth rate was significantly higher than that of national joint-stock banks, such as Changshu (+ 23.6%), Sunong (+ 21.4%), Qingdao (+ 18.1%) and Zhangjiagang (+ 17.6%). Structurally, the proportion of most bank credit increased quarter on quarter, with an increase range of 0.2-0.9pct. It is expected that the interest margin will benefit from the reform of deposit quotation mechanism, which is generally stable, and even some banks may widen slightly.
3) the asset quality continues to improve month on month, and the risk offset ability is enhanced. The non-performing rate of most banks decreased quarter on quarter, with a decrease of 2bp-13bp. The average non-performing rate was at a low level of 1.1%, and Changshu (0.81%), China Merchants Bank (0.91%) and Zhangjiagang (0.95%) continued to be below 1%; The provision level of most banks increased quarter on quarter, and Sunong (+ 41.0pct), Zhangjiagang (+ 27.8pct) and Ping An (+ 20.1pct) increased by more than 20 percentage points month on month. Among them, the provision coverage of Changshu (532.0%), Zhangjiagang (479.5%) and China Merchants Bank (441.3%) is at a high level in the industry, and the overall risk offset ability is strong.
4) it is expected that there will be great differentiation among institutions, and high-quality banks will be strong. a. From the perspective of volume, although the bank credit growth rate of the disclosed performance express rose and fell quarter on quarter, most of the growth rates were significantly higher than the industry average. Under the increasing downward pressure on the economy and the weakening marginal demand for effective credit, some banks' 4q21 credit supply may be relatively insufficient; b. From the perspective of price, the net interest margin reflects the differences in the operating capacity of customer groups of different banks in the process of regional and industrial credit adjustment. The banks that have disclosed the performance express are mainly high-quality local corporate banks in Jiangsu and Zhejiang or joint-stock banks focusing on retail business, which have a good ability to get and live customers and contribute to the stability of interest margin. However, for bank credit extension in other regions, under the situation of intensified competition in credit supply, asset side pricing may bear greater pressure. It is expected that the regional differentiation characteristics of credit extension have intensified since the beginning of this year. c. From the perspective of medium collection, banks with good customer base and strong channel ability are expected to continue to develop medium collection business.
More optimistic about the sustainability of the performance of high-quality regional banks: 1q22 is affected by the relative stability of credit supply and net interest margin. It is estimated that the revenue growth of 1q22 listed banks is still stable, significantly improved year-on-year and roughly flat month on month. Asset quality pressure will not increase significantly in 1q, resulting in credit cost savings. Whether the "broad credit" expectation can be fulfilled smoothly and the resulting economic trend changes will significantly affect the performance of bank stock prices. In terms of investment logic, continue to recommend three main lines: 1) rebound themes brought by real estate risk suppression and weakening, such as Societe Generale, Ping An and China Merchants Bank; 2) The main line of sound operation of high-quality regional local banks, such as Chengdu, Jiangsu, Nanjing, Changshu, Hangzhou, etc; 3) At the beginning of the year, the main line of "Touyan" bank with stable credit supply, such as postal savings and China Construction Bank.
Risk tip: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Real estate risk situation disturbance.
