Key investment points:
Industry trend and valuation
From December 10, 2021 to January 12, 2022, CSI 300 fell by 4.59%, SW automobile sector fell by 6.67%, outperforming the market by 2.08 percentage points.
As of the closing on January 12, the TTM P / E ratio of SW automotive industry was 30 times, and the valuation premium rate relative to CSI 300 fell to 130.28%, including 37 times for passenger cars and 28 times for parts.
Industry: sales continued to recover, replenishment continued to advance, prices rose and preferences narrowed
In December, the automobile sales volume was 2.786 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the decline was significantly narrowed, with a month on month increase of 10.5%. Since September, the chip supply has continuously improved and achieved positive month on month growth for the fourth consecutive month. The annual car sales volume was 26.275 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, of which the passenger car sales volume was 21.482 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. By department, the sales volume of independent passenger cars in December was 1.137 million, with a year-on-year increase of 10.0%. The growth rate was still significantly better than the overall performance of the industry, with a month on month increase of 11.3%. The sales volume rebounded for four consecutive months, corresponding to a market share of 46.9%, an increase of 3.2/0.3pct on a month on month basis, and the annual share increased to 44.4%, an increase of 6pct on a month on month basis. At the end of December, the inventory of passenger cars was 550000, an increase of 26.73% compared with the beginning of the month. With the improvement of chip supply, the main engine factory continued to accelerate production to supplement the inventory; In December, the inventory depth coefficient of distributors increased to 1.43 compared with the previous month, and channel replenishment is in progress.
In terms of price, the penetration rate of electric intelligence has increased rapidly, the price of moped market has increased, and the terminal preference has continued to narrow. In terms of cost, the prices of main raw materials fell in the fourth quarter and are now in a volatile situation.
New energy vehicles: the annual sales volume increased significantly, and the proportion of LFP increased significantly to 51.65%. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 531000, a year-on-year increase of 113.9%, a month-on-month increase of 11.1%, a record high in a single month. The annual sales volume was 3521000, a year-on-year increase of 157.5%. In terms of upstream industrial chain, the loading volume of power battery in December was 26.22gwh, a year-on-year increase of 102.42%, a month on month increase of 25.90%, and the cumulative loading volume in the whole year was 154.50gwh, a year-on-year increase of 142.77%. Structurally, LFP accounted for 57.41% in December, increased by 1.83 PCT compared with the previous month, and reached 51.65% in the whole year, increased by 13.33 PCT compared with 2020.
Investment strategy
1) the current industry recovery is mainly based on: on the one hand, the chip supply began to improve in mid and late September, the industry sales continued to grow month on month in September, October, November and December, and the passenger car sales returned to positive year-on-year in December; On the other hand, China's demand for steady growth is becoming more and more obvious. Under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving force. From a comprehensive analysis, we expect that on the premise that the chip supply continues to improve and there is no significant impact of the epidemic, the sales volume is expected to turn positive year-on-year under the demand replenishment and normal replenishment this year. Combined with the low base effect last year, it is expected to achieve rapid growth throughout the year. In terms of internal structure, we believe that the brand and pattern of the passenger car sector will continue to be optimized. It is recommended to pay attention to the independent industrial chain with strong product power and resonance with the new car cycle, as well as the high-quality joint venture brand industrial chain under the logic of replenishment and recovery of subsequent industries, especially the investment opportunities of high-quality parts under the joint vibration of replenishment and export recovery, In terms of short-term recovery elasticity, we are optimistic about the mass industrial chain greatly affected by the lack of core in the early stage. Generally speaking, the recommended targets are Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), and the targets of high-quality parts are Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
2) in terms of new energy vehicles, the new forces of self-reliance and car making, as well as Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car enterprises continue to accelerate the layout of the Chinese market. The supply of models is increasingly diversified, the market competitiveness is continuously improved, and the logic of supply stimulating demand will continue to be deduced. Although there were some impulse factors before the decline of subsidies at the end of last year, and the short-term sales volume at the beginning of the year may fluctuate, considering that the orders delayed due to the shortage of chips last year are expected to be delivered successively this year, we are not pessimistic about the sales volume expectation this year, among which class a vehicles and hybrid vehicles are expected to contribute the main increment. Meanwhile, the global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States. Among them, if the electric vehicle tax credit policy of up to US $12500 per vehicle is implemented as scheduled, the United States will become a new growth pole of the global new energy vehicle market this year. Therefore, along the main line of the global supply chain, we are optimistic about: ① China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car enterprises and companies in the supply chain of new forces of car making, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (603348); ② Enterprises that enter the leading supply chain of power batteries such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ferdi battery ( Byd Company Limited(002594) power battery company), LG Chemical and Panasonic, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). ③ Independent automobile enterprises that are expected to continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594), Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) (600066).
3) in terms of smart cars, we believe that with the joint active promotion of car enterprises, technology giants and new forces in car manufacturing, from the medium and long-term perspective, the sales and penetration of global and Chinese smart connected cars are expected to rise rapidly. This year, many high-end smart cars in China are expected to be launched one after another, and the industry is expected to achieve a qualitative breakthrough from L2 to L3, The intelligent driving market has entered a period of accelerated development. It is suggested to focus on two main lines: 1) the targets of Huawei's intelligent vehicle industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733. SH), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238. SH), etc; 2) At the perception level, the demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors and intelligent lamps will continue to increase; Meanwhile, the penetration rate of intelligent cockpit / intelligent chassis (including air suspension, brake by wire, electric steering, lightweight chassis and integrated die casting technology) will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (603197), Foryou Corporation(002906) (002906), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689). Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The recovery of automobile production and sales was less than expected; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; Price rise of raw materials and exchange rate risk; The global epidemic control of covid-19 pneumonia was less than expected.
