[Key words this week]: the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has reached 3.5 million in 21 years; Indonesia plans to levy taxes on ferronickel exports; BYD won the quota of 80000 tons of lithium metal in Chile; In the 21st year, the output of neodymium, iron and boron in China reached 240000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25%; The prices of lithium carbonate and praseodymium neodymium oxide continued to reach new highs; The annual rate of CPI in the United States in December reached the highest since 1982; The Fed's expectation of raising interest rates continues to heat up.
Market review: 1) in terms of small metals, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China reached a new high in October, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was close to 20%, the prosperity of the industry continued to rise, and the prosperity trend of cobalt, lithium and rare earth in the upstream of new energy vehicles was clear and continued to be optimistic: ① the inventory of lithium ore in the industry was low, the reluctance to sell in the upstream was obvious, the price accelerated, and the lithium concentrate increased by 2.2% month on month this week, Battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 14.3% month on month, and the price of electric carbon has exceeded 300000; ② With the outbreak of the epidemic in South Africa, cobalt prices accelerated upward, and metal cobalt rose by 1.2% this week; ③ In terms of rare earth, the supply of raw materials was tight. The Ministry of industry and information technology disclosed the motor energy efficiency improvement plan and raised the demand expectation of rare earth. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 1.7% this week. 2) Powell's unexpected dovish speech made the US dollar fall rapidly, but under the background of high inflation and rapid recovery of employment, it is inevitable to raise interest rates: ① basic metals, LME, aluminum and copper increased by 2.49% and 0.88% respectively; ② The real yield of ten-year US bonds increased from - 0.72% → - 0.66%, and Comex gold closed at US $1817.3/oz, up 1.15% month on month.
Macro "three factors" summary: the policy direction of China's steady growth is clear, and China's CPI and PPI fell year-on-year in December; The annual rate of CPI in the United States in December reached the highest level since 1982, and the epidemic continued to heat up; ECB president Lagarde hinted that inflation would ease; Specifically: 1) in China, CPI and PPI fell in December, which were lower than market expectations. PPI fell three times in a row. In December, China's CPI was 1.5% year-on-year (the previous value was 2.3%, and the expectation was 1.71%); PPI in December was 10.3% year-on-year (previous value 12.9%, expected 10.81%); In December, China's M0 was 7.7% (the previous value was 7.2%), M1 was 3.5% (the previous value was 3.0%), and M2 was 9.0% (the previous value was 8.5%, the expected value was 8.66%); In December, China's social financing scale was 2.37 trillion yuan (the previous value was 2.61 trillion yuan), the stock of social financing scale was 10.3% year-on-year (the previous value was 10.1%), and the new RMB loans in December were 1.13 trillion yuan (the previous value was 1.27 trillion yuan, expected to be 1.24 trillion yuan); 2) In the United States, the annual CPI rate of the United States in December reached the highest level since 1982. In December, the seasonally adjusted CPI of the United States was 0.5% (the former value was 0.8%), the year-on-year CPI was 7.0% (the former value was 6.8%), the seasonally adjusted core CPI was 0.6% (the former value was 0.5%), and the year-on-year core CPI was 5.5% (the former value was 4.5%); In December, the quarter on quarter adjustment of core PPI was 0.5% (the previous value was 0.8%), and the quarter on quarter adjustment of core PPI was 9.4% (the previous value was 9.4%) year on year; In December, the quarterly adjustment of retail and food service sales was 16.95% (the previous value was 18.24%), and the quarterly adjustment of total retail sales in December was - 2.06% (the previous value was 0.10%). 3) ECB president Lagarde hinted that inflation would ease and the epidemic would cool down. In November, the EU unemployment rate was 6.5% (the previous value was 6.7%) and the euro zone unemployment rate was seasonally adjusted by 7.2% (the previous value was 7.3%); This week, the United Kingdom, Germany and France added 481335.2 cases of covid-19 diagnosis on a daily basis, a decrease of 11767.8 cases compared with last week, and the epidemic has cooled down. 4) The rhythm of each economy is different, but the decline direction of the global overall prosperity remains unchanged. In December, the global pmi54 3. Annular lift 0.50.
Base metals: Powell's unexpected dovish speech made the US dollar lower and commodities generally higher. At the hearing, US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's remarks on monetary policy were milder than before, calmed market sentiment, and the inflation data in December did not exceed expectations, and the US dollar index fell somewhat; In terms of fundamentals, downstream pre holiday stock and low inventory support the price of base metals. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by 0.6%, 2.2%, 3.5%, - 0.1%, 1.1% and 7.0% respectively this week, and the price rose as a whole.
1. For electrolytic copper, China's inventory finally showed a slight accumulation during the week, and under the condition of weak import price comparison, the source of imported goods was basically accumulated in the form of bonded warehouse; The continuously rising disk prices gradually highlighted the fear of heights in the downstream. In addition, the downstream concentrated the Reserve last week, further making the consumption performance weak during the week. On Wednesday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 83400 tons, and the weekly cumulative inventory was 5000 tons.
2. For electrolytic aluminum, there is still a possibility of small increase in Yunnan and Shanxi in January. In addition, there has not been any clear reduction in electrolytic aluminum in the Winter Olympic Games, and the overall supply end is still running at a low level; On the demand side, the goods preparation of downstream enterprises is coming to an end, and the consumption side is further weakened as the Spring Festival approaches. Affected by the rising price of power coal this week, the immediate cost of electrolytic aluminum was 17105 yuan / ton, up 4.32% month on month, and the profit per ton of aluminum was 2691 yuan, down 12.84% month on month. This week, China's aluminum ingot inventory in eight places totaled 724000 tons, and 52000 tons went to the warehouse every week.
3. For zinc ingots, overseas, the United States and Europe have relaxed on Beixi 2 to a certain extent, which may affect the supply and demand pattern of natural gas in Europe; In terms of Shanghai zinc, in addition to the enterprises that cut down production due to environmental protection factors, there is currently production control in smelters due to ore pressure. At the same time, some smelters in Hunan have been overhauled for more than the usual time. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places this week was 123100 tons, and the weekly inventory was 3700 tons.
Upstream lithium battery raw materials: the prosperity of the global new energy industry continues to rise, the electric vehicle market in China, the United States and Europe resonates, and the upward trend of upstream raw material prices continues to strengthen:
1. The demand boom continues to rise, and the price transmission is smooth: the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have exceeded 3.5 million in the past 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, and the market penetration rate is 13.4%, of which 500000 vehicles were exceeded in a single month in December. The passenger Association expects that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 is expected to exceed 6 million, with a penetration rate of about 22%.
2. The end of the year is approaching, and the price of lithium carbonate is accelerating upward again. 1) On the price side, Wuxi electronic lithium carbonate futures fell by the limit for two consecutive trading days on January 11 and 12, mainly due to the impact of short-term capital profit taking, the supply and demand fundamentals are still tightening, and the price will continue to rise after a short-term correction. 2) On the supply side, Chinese smelters have entered the period of centralized maintenance at the end of the year. The epidemic broke out in Chile and Argentina. The supply at home and abroad may be reduced in stock, and the bullish sentiment in the upstream is obvious; 3) Lithium salt inventory: lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2.29% month on month from 5200 to 5081 tons; Lithium hydroxide inventory decreased by 5.12% month on month from 397 to 371 tons. 4) Overseas lithium resources. In October 2021, Chile launched the auction procedure to provide domestic and overseas companies with a special operation contract for the exploration and production of 400000 metal tons of lithium ore. The successful bidder will obtain a 7-year exploration, research and project development period, which can be extended for up to 2 years, and then obtain a 20-year lithium salt production period. The Ministry of mining of Chile decided on January 12, Two lithium mining contracts of 80000 metal tons were awarded to Byd Company Limited(002594) and serviciosyoperaciones minerals del Norte. The left-wing government will come into power in March 21. There is still great uncertainty, which will not affect the medium and short-term supply and demand structure.
3. With the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further. 1) On the price side, the quotations of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 0.6% and 0.6% month on month respectively, and the tax included price of metal cobalt in China has reached 540000 yuan / ton; China's metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide rose by 1.2%, 0.5% and 0.6% respectively. 2) On the demand side, the downstream enterprises basically completed the preparation for mining years ago. Recently, the wait-and-see mood is heavy, but the shortage of raw materials in the smelter will continue, and the price is expected to continue the upward trend.
4. Reshaping the pattern of rare earth permanent magnet industry. 1) In the spot market, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 1.7% to 908000 yuan / ton compared with last week. The listing price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was 816900 yuan / ton in China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) January, which was the same month on month. The preparation before the Spring Festival has been basically completed, the market activity has decreased, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium will remain stable next week. 2) On the demand side, the output of Nd-Fe-B enterprises in December was 23050 tons, an increase of 4.18% month on month and 8.60% year-on-year; In the whole year of 21, the output of neodymium iron boron in China was about 243000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 25%. 3) In terms of inventory, the inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide was flat compared with last week. The inventory of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased from 2534 to 2490 tons, down 1.74% month on month.
5. Nickel: Indonesia plans to levy taxes on ferronickel exports, and the price has reached a new high in recent 10 years. 1) Affected by Indonesia's proposed tax on ferronickel exports, nickel prices hit a new high in recent 10 years, and SHFE nickel closed at 164000 yuan / ton, up 8.59% month on month. 2) On the supply side, Indonesia plans to levy a tax on ferronickel. The government may begin to levy a tax on the export of ferronickel and nickel pig iron in 2022. If the nickel price is more than 15000 US dollars / ton, a tax of 2% may be levied, and the tax will increase with the increase of nickel price. Previously, the Indonesian government has repeatedly expressed the idea of taxation. 3) On the demand side, the output of stainless steel crude steel in China in 2021 was 33.664 million tons, an increase of 2.423 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 6.8%.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry
1. Base metals: China's economic work in 2022 will be "stable", which will support the price of base metals to some extent. However, from the global dimension, 1) changes in the structure before, during and after the outbreak of overseas economic demand, and 2) the global liquidity taper trend remains unchanged, and the downward trend of base metals may not have been fundamentally changed.
2. The upstream raw materials of new energy, such as lithium cobalt rare earth copper foil, aluminum foil and magnetic materials, are still strong in the short cycle, and the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year boom upward cycle will not change. The industrial boom is the most clear and firmly optimistic.
Core target: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) etc. 2) Base metal: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) etc. 3) Precious metals: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection policy risk, gold price fluctuation risk, new energy vehicle sales less than expected risk, premise assumption of supply and demand calculation less than expected risk, etc.
