Main points:
Market performance:
The Shanghai Composite Index fell – 1.63% this week to close at 3521.26; Gem means + 0.73% this week, closing at 3119.41 points; CSI 300 this week – 1.98%, closing at 4726.73 points. The real estate sector was – 3.50%, ranking 26th among 31 industries.
New house transaction: the transaction area was – 20.6% year-on-year and + 32.8% month on month
This week (1.07-1.13), the total transaction area of first-hand houses in 32 cities we focused on tracking was about 3.28 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 20.6% and a month on month increase of + 32.8%. Among them, the total transaction area of first-hand houses in the first tier (4 cities) was 800000 m3, with a year-on-year rate of – 13.8% and a month on month rate of – 3.0%; The total transaction area of first-hand houses in the second tier (14 cities) was 1.87 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.9% and a month on month increase of + 66.9%; The total turnover of first-hand houses in the third tier (14 cities) was 600000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 57.4% and a month on month increase of + 16.2%.
Second hand housing transaction: the transaction area was – 43.8% year-on-year and + 34.5% month on month
This week (1.07-1.13), the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities we focus on tracking is about 1.04 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 43.8% and a month on month increase of + 34.5%. Among them, the total transaction area of second-hand houses in the first tier (2 cities) was 340000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 31.7% and a month on month increase of + 53.5%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the second tier (8 cities) was 490000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 45.2% and a month on month increase of + 29.0%; The total transaction area of second-hand houses in the third tier (7 cities) was 210000 m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 54.4% and a month on month increase of + 22.1%.
Inventory of new houses: the inventory area was -2.01% month on month, and the decontamination cycle was November 1
As of January 13, 2022, the total inventory area of new houses in 16 cities we focused on tracking this week was about 93.35 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 2.01%. The overall decontamination cycle (by area) was about November 1. Among them, the inventory of new houses in the first tier (4 cities) totaled 29.54 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 3.71%, and the decontamination cycle was 8.4 months; The inventory of new houses in the second tier (6 cities) was 31.98 million m3, with a month on month ratio of – 3.31%, and the decontamination cycle was 9.1 months; The inventory of new houses in the third tier (6 cities) was 31.83 million m3, a month on month increase of + 1.01%, and the decontamination cycle was 23.6 months.
Land market: the land transaction area of Baicheng is 3.58 million m3, the total land transaction price is 4.6 billion yuan, and the land premium rate is 0.00%
Last week (1.03-1.09), the number of land supply in Baicheng was 62, and the corresponding land supply construction area was about 4.79 million m3; The number of land transactions in Baicheng is 47, with the corresponding land construction area of about 3.58 million m3, the total land transaction price is about 4.6 billion yuan, and the land premium rate of Baicheng is 0.00%. Among them, the land transaction and construction area of the first, second and third tier cities were 640000 m3, 1090000 m3 and 1850000 m3 respectively, with a year-on-year rate of – 84%, – 87% and – 95% respectively, and the corresponding land premium rates were 0.00%, 0.03% and 0.00% respectively.
Investment suggestions:
This week, the National Bureau of statistics released the changes in the sales prices of commercial houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2021. The sales price of commercial housing generally continued the downward trend since 2021q4, and the year-on-year increase decreased. 1) The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in the first tier cities decreased and increased month on month, while those in the second and third tier cities decreased. In December, the sales price of newly-built commercial housing in first tier cities decreased by 0.1% month on month (MOM) from flat last month. Among them, Beijing was flat month on month, Shanghai rose 0.4%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased 0.6% and 0.1% respectively. The sales price of second-hand houses in first tier cities increased by 0.1% month on month from a decrease of 0.2% last month. Among them, Beijing and Shanghai increased by 0.8% and 0.4% month on month respectively, while Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in second tier cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in the previous month. The sales price of new commercial housing in the third tier cities decreased by 0.3% month on month, the same as that in the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses decreased by 0.5% month on month, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month. 2) The year-on-year increase in the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in the first and second tier cities fell, the year-on-year increase in the sales prices of new commercial houses in the third tier cities fell, and the year-on-year increase in the sales prices of second-hand houses was flat. In December, the sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in first tier cities increased by 4.4% and 5.3% respectively year-on-year, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial houses and second-hand houses in second tier cities increased by 2.8% and 1.5% respectively year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. New commercial housing in third tier cities increased by 0.9% year-on-year, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; The sales price of second-hand houses was flat from a year-on-year increase of 0.5% last month.
Following the “three red lines”, the introduction of policies such as “concentration management of real estate loans”, “two concentration of land supply” and “pilot reform of real estate tax” will restrict supply and demand in both directions. The wind direction has not changed, and “stability first” is still the main tone, and the space for large amplification is narrow. At present, the valuation and position of the sector have been at an all-time low. In the future, the low base effect subsided, the fundamentals were under pressure in 2022q1, and the supply and demand of the industry were limited, resulting in increased disharmony between land acquisition, sales and leverage reduction. Suggestions: (1) steady development type: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) ; (2) Growth benefit type: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; (3) High quality objects of property management: China Resources Vientiane life, country garden service, Jinke service, Baolong business, etc.
Risk tips:
The real estate regulation policy is becoming stricter, the sales repair is less than expected, and the capital is greatly tightened.
