Social service education Weekly - point of view
Education industry
China's education index rose or fell - 1.68% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses: Huaxia audio visual education (+ 10.75%), gaotu group (+ 9.70%), Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) (- 8.90%), and Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) (- 6.20%).
Viewpoint: 1) on the whole, the education industry still maintains a cautious rating, and the opportunities mainly come from the individual stock level. 2) It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. K9 discipline business was stripped off on December 31, and the negative factors were cleared. We believe that the company's resources are expected to tilt towards university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting. The process of new business from 0 to 1 is worthy of attention. The bottom logic lies in the brand, human resources Material resources and other factors remain strong.
Education industry
This week, the hotel catering and leisure (Changjiang) / Consumer Service HK (CITIC) index increased or decreased by - 1.43% / + 6.32%. Stocks with large increase: Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) (+ 27.14%), Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) (+ 22.58%), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (+ 14.46%), China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) (+ 13.38%), Naixue tea (+ 10.84%).
Viewpoint: 1) with the continuous promotion of covid-19 specific drugs and the boost of market sentiment, the catering sector has strengthened as a whole; Stocks such as Xi'An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) increased significantly, mainly driven by the concept of prefabricated dishes. 2) The epidemic broke out in many local places, travel and tourism were limited, and the wine tourism sector weakened slightly. 3) Optimistic in the medium and long term, pay attention to the performance and valuation repair market after the epidemic situation improves. 4) It is suggested to pay attention to the fast-growing Helen company, whose "light product" model is rapidly penetrating into second and third tier cities and below.
Wine travel catering
The beauty care (Shenwan) index rose or fell by + 0.03% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses: Hangzhou Nbond Nowovens Co.Ltd(603238) (+ 11.85%), Xiamen Yanjan New Material Co.Ltd(300658) (+ 11.16%), Hangzhou Coco Healthcare Products Co.Ltd(301009) (+ 10.50%), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (- 9.17%), Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (- 7.49%).
Viewpoint: 1) various policies of the medical and beauty industry are gradually tightened, and the market is facing an emotional digestion period. 2) In the medium and long term, with the improvement of consumers' recognition of domestic cosmetics and the strength of domestic products, domestic cosmetics leaders will continue to increase their market penetration.
Individual stock views and risk tips
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , the cumulative increase and decrease this week was - 6.64%. Viewpoint: 1) according to the expectation of the company's third quarterly report, the annual performance is expected to be more than 6 billion, and the performance is relatively stable. 2021 is a "small year" for the industry and the company's business (the original customers in education and other industries are damaged), and it is expected to rebound next year (price rise is determined & driven by consumer goods); 2) Focus's business model and demand trend are still strong. We firmly believe that the future of consumer brands is the future of focus and continue to firmly recommend. The PE valuation in 2021 and 2022 is less than 20 times, maintaining "strong recommendation".
The same hunting employment increased or decreased by + 17.24% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the long-term growth rate of revenue is 20% +, 40% + for four consecutive quarters, and CAGR is 30% in the next three years. 2) Robust HR SaaS model, 2b renewal rate of 80% +, Ka renewal rate of 90% +. 3) At present, the commercialization rate is only about 7%. It is estimated that there will be 1 million registered enterprises and 70000 paying enterprises in 2021. 4) In 2020, the ARPU of b-end was 31300 yuan, and the CAGR (2017-2020) was 16.1%, which continued to grow. It is recommended to pay attention.
New Oriental online, up or down + 7.33% this week. Viewpoint: 1) policy & business operation negative clearing; 2) University adult business is expected to rebound strongly; 3) Institutional business and live delivery are new businesses from 0 to 1; 4) New Oriental's human and material resources are still strong, the group's book cash exceeds 30 billion, and the core talent team led by Yu Minhong is still growing. New Oriental online, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, has undertaken many strategic transformation directions of the group. It is recommended to actively focus on transformation opportunities.
Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , the cumulative increase and decrease this week was + 0.98%. Views: 1) repeated short-term epidemic and pressure on business recovery; 2) However, we are optimistic about the chain and concentration trend of hotel leaders, firmly optimistic for a long time, and maintain the "recommendation".
Huazhu group - s, up or down - 5.12% this week. Views: 1) repeated short-term epidemic and pressure on business recovery; 2) We are optimistic about the chain and concentration trend of hotel leaders, and firmly optimistic about it for a long time. Under the background of continuous sharp decline, we suggest "bargain hunting layout" and maintain "recommendation".
Ctrip group - s, up or down - 4.95% this week. Viewpoint: 1) in the short term, it is obviously affected by the epidemic, China's tourism and business travel are blocked, and the market of the whole tourism and hotel industry is depressed; 2) In the medium and long term, the epidemic will eventually pass. As a leader in the industry, Ctrip has no essential business model damage; 3) Traveling abroad is still the biggest long-term logic of Ctrip. There are extremely high barriers to the heavy service demand of Chinese people, the leader of Ota. If it is oversold, it is recommended to "bargain hunting layout" and maintain "recommendation".
Risk tips: 1) policy changes; 2) Repeated epidemic situation; 3) Impact of emergencies, etc.
