Key investment points:
Market review: from January 10 to January 14, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 0.68% as a whole, ranking 11th among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 2.66 percentage points over the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, the hotel and catering sector rose 4.96%, and the tourism and leisure sector rose 0.54%. The comprehensive services and education sectors fell by 1.65% and 1.75% respectively, and all sub sectors outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. The concept of prefabricated dishes was hot this week, driving the rise of hotels and catering sector. There were 30 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, of which the top five were Jinling Hotel Corporation Ltd(601007) , Xi’An Catering Co.Ltd(000721) , Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , up 35.56%, 27.14%, 22.58%, 14.46% and 13.38% respectively. There were 24 companies with negative returns, of which the top five listed companies with declines were Guangzhou Shiyuan Electronic Technology Company Limited(002841) , Shanghai Action Education Technology Co.Ltd(605098) , Dark Horse Technology Group Co.Ltd(300688) , Kaiyuan Education Technology Group Co.Ltd(300338) , The Great Wall Of Culture Group Holding Co.Ltd.Guangdong(300089) , down 6.20%, 8.90%, 9.58%, 9.76% and 11.27% respectively. As of January 14, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 40.35 times, slightly lower than last week and 46.74 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive services are 35.43 times, 57.68 times, 52.20 times and 64.55 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of January 14, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 202.81 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 2.933 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 5.887 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 122.23 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 50.93%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 33.579 million doses.
Important news: (1) there are many confirmed cases of Omicron in China. (2) Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, believes that citizens in low-risk areas can go home for the new year conditionally without a complete shutdown on the premise of prevention and control.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, local patients with Omicron variant of covid-19 pneumonia appeared in Beijing, Guangdong and other places. Omicron variant virus began to spread in China, putting pressure on the consumer service industry in the short term. Under the influence of the Winter Olympics and the local Chinese new year policy, the Spring Festival epidemic prevention policy may become stricter, but China’s covid-19 vaccination is close to 2 doses per capita. Academician Zhong Nanshan, citizens in low-risk areas can still go home for the new year. The tourism market during the Spring Festival in 2022 may be improved compared with that in 2021. In the long run, covid-19 pneumonia shows an influenza trend. The 14th five year plan of the Civil Aviation Administration points out that it will strive to gradually resume inbound and outbound tourism in 2023, and the epidemic situation is expected to be controlled. It is suggested to pay careful attention to the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888) with low current valuation, which is significantly warmer in the number of tourists in Hainan in the peak season, and is favorable for consumption upgrading and consumption return in the medium and long term; Franchise stores account for a relatively high proportion, leading chain hotels with stable performance Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258), etc.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; Repeated epidemic and other risks.
