Main points:
Pig prices fell 5.6% to 13.88 yuan / kg on a week-on-week basis, and the willingness to fill the column decreased slightly on a week-on-week basis. ① Pig prices fell 5.6% week on week. On Saturday, the national pig price was 13.88 yuan / kg, down 5.6% on a weekly basis; On Friday, the national average wholesale price of pork was 22.26 yuan / kg, down 2.1% on a weekly basis. The self bred pigs lost 269.75 yuan / head, and the purchased piglets lost 38.76 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs going out of the slaughter increased, and the willingness to make up the slaughter decreased slightly.
According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (1.7-1.13): the number of pigs within 90kg in China accounted for 10.79%, and the weekly ring ratio increased by 0.26 percentage points, 3.42 percentage points higher than that in mid October. Affected by the low temperature in winter, the epidemic situation picked up; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 403 yuan / head, down 1.2% on a weekly basis, up 161.7% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom, and the price of 50kg binary sows was 1659 yuan / head, down 1% on a weekly basis, up 34% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ In 2021, all listed pig enterprises achieved year-on-year growth. In 2021, the number of slaughter (10000 heads) from high to low is Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4026.3, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1492.7, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 1321.7, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 997.8, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 430.8, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 428, COFCO Jiakang 343.7, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 324.6, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 160.3, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 154.2, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 106.9; The year-on-year growth rate of marketing volume from high to low is Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 141%, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) 133%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 122%, COFCO jiajiakang 68%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 56%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 51%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 39%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 38%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 33%, New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) 20%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 19%. ④ The inflection point of the pig cycle still needs to be observed. The bottom area of the valuation of mainstream companies can change time for space. From July to November 2021, although the stock of fertile sows decreased by 6.9% month on month, the inflection point of pig price may appear in 2023: I) since late October 2021, the prices of piglets and breeding pigs have rebounded sharply, and the recent decline in pig price has not led to a significant decline in the enthusiasm for filling the stock. The change of stock of fertile sows in the later period still needs to be observed; II) since the beginning of 2021, inefficient sows have been cleared and the efficiency of breeding pigs has been continuously improved; III) from 2020 to 2021, a huge amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years; IV) mainstream listed pig enterprises plan to increase by more than 30% in 2022. The cost of 10000 pig farms and ordinary farmers is concentrated at 13 yuan / kg, and the pig price is higher than 13 yuan / kg, which is difficult to form an effective elimination. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic in the pig industry, the pig price will be relatively low in 2022, and the inflection point may appear in 2023. We estimate the average market value of pig enterprises with the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5183 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 4885 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 2110 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2500 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2116 yuan; Premium compared with the lowest point in history, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 52%, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 49%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 43%, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 20% and COFCO Jiakang 28%. From the perspective of 2022, the valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is at the bottom, so it is recommended to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken products rose by 0.2% on a weekly basis, and the price of yellow feather fell on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.2% on a weekly basis. In the first week of 2022 (1.3-1.9), the price of parental chicken seedlings was 35.73 yuan / set, with a weekly increase of 3.8%; The sales volume of parent generation chicken seedlings was 1211900 sets, an increase of 5.5% month on month; On Friday, the price of white feather chicken was 9700 yuan / ton, up 0.2% week on week. In 2020, the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million sets, with a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal increased significantly year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices fell week on week. Affected by the covid-19 epidemic situation, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of the yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 was second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic” event, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 2021, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. On January 14, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 6.32 yuan / kg, down 7.7% on a week-on-week basis and 9.8% on a year-on-year basis; The average price of medium speed chicken was 6.97 yuan / kg, down 0.3% week on week and up 4.8% year on year; The average price of native chicken was 8.43 yuan / kg, down 1.9% week on week and up 2.7% year on year; Black bone chicken was 7.35 yuan / kg, down 0.3% month on week and 8.5% year-on-year.
The January report of the US Department of agriculture and the Chinese Department of Agriculture announced that the prices of corn and soybean remained high. ① Corn prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The January supply and demand report of the U.S. Department of agriculture predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.3%, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.2 percentage points lower than that in December, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in January: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 is 4.83 million tons, the predicted balance is 3 million tons higher than that in December and 3.24 million tons lower than that in 2020 / 21. In 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. ② Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. The supply and demand report of USDA in January predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.4%, down 2.1 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 1.7 percentage points compared with the predicted value in December; The global soybean meal stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 4.9%, down 0.2 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 0.2 percentage points compared with the predicted value in December, still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in January: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 is 170000 tons, which is the same as that in December, a decrease of 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21.
We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022. ③ The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and the leader of seed industry is expected to fully benefit. The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we judge the impact as follows: I) the sale of GM corn seeds may begin in the second half of 2023. The revised draft may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production will be carried out as soon as 2023 and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) the corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. III) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit. China’s pet market has great potential, and the epidemic has dragged down the gradual end.
From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China’s pet consumption market was as high as 30.9%; In 2020, the scale growth of China’s pet consumption market slowed down to 2% and maintained single digit growth in 2021. We believe that the main reason for the slowdown in 2020-2021 is that the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic has significantly increased the downward pressure on the economy and delayed the entry of potential PET consumers into the market. However, from the medium and long-term perspective, the penetration rate of pets in China is 17%, while that in the United States, Australia, Britain and Japan is as high as 68%, 62%, 45% and 38% respectively; The annual consumption expenditure of pet dogs and cats in China is US $869 and US $679 respectively, which are lower than that of major pet raising countries. China’s pet consumption market has great growth potential.
From the perspective of the company, Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) is affected by exchange and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) is affected by the shutdown of factories in Vietnam. We continue to recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) .
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
