I. latest feedback on industrial chain tracking
Short term price & full year price.
According to SMM’s quotation this week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 320000-330000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 300000-310000 yuan / ton, and some bidding sales prices reach 355000-365000 yuan / ton; The quotation of lithium hydroxide is about 270000-300000 yuan / ton. Since the end of the fourth quarter of last year, this round of increase has reached 150000 / ton, mainly due to the superposition of downstream stock demand and the reduction of supply after the fourth quarter.
In terms of price rhythm, it is determined by supply and demand. The trend is expected to be similar to that in the 21st year. After the Spring Festival, the price rise has weakened and stabilized. After the sideways market, a new round of rise will be started at the end of the second quarter and the third quarter. In terms of varieties, lithium carbonate rose first, and it is expected that the increase of lithium hydroxide will keep up by the middle of the year.
For the annual price, the industrial chain is optimistic about this year’s price judgment and shouted out a relatively high price. At the same time, we are relatively optimistic about this year and next. 22 years of short supply and strong certainty; Many production expansion projects in 23 years are planned to be put into operation in the second half of the year or at the end of the year. Considering the ramp up of production capacity, it means that the supply increment in 23 years is limited, and the supply still exceeds the demand in 23 years. The shortage may be alleviated in 24-25 years, but there is a high probability that it will not reverse the trend of short supply.
Downstream acceptance. The conclusion is that both Chinese and overseas customers fully accept the current price, and the spot is hard to find. The general feedback is that battery and car companies are more concerned about the market share. They are more worried about the lack of resource guarantee and accept the reality of resource shortage.
II. Several issues concerned by the market
Is lithium a photovoltaic silicon material for 21 years? Can we wait until the inflection point of lithium price decline? We believe that lithium is a resource product and silicon material is an industrial product, which can not be completely equivalent. Silicon raw materials are not scarce. They can be invested with funds, and the expansion time is about one year. The production expansion cycle of lithium ore is less than 2 years and more than 3-5 years; It takes 6 months to expand the production of downstream lithium batteries and 1 year to expand the production of cathode materials, that is, the imbalance between supply and demand takes at least 2-3 years.
What is the price tolerance of several downstream? Lithium has four downstream: power battery, consumer battery, energy storage and traditional industry. The order of price affordability: power – consumption – traditional industry – energy storage.
How many cars can lithium meet in 21 years? According to the prediction of Guojin new energy vehicle team, the global sales of electric vehicles will be 10 million in 22 years. According to the demand of 50kg lithium for each vehicle, the power link corresponds to the demand of 500000 tons. We estimate that the lithium supply will be 682000 tons in 22 years, that is, the remaining 180000 tons distributed by the three downstream regions of consumption, energy storage and tradition, and the corresponding demand in the three fields will be 60000-80000 tons, 30000-40000 tons and 80000 tons respectively, which is flat or slightly decreased year-on-year. It means slightly reducing the demand in the other three fields, and the lithium in 22 years can meet the demand of 10 million new energy vehicles. If the demand in the other three fields is to increase year-on-year, the lithium in 22 years can also meet the demand of 9 million new energy vehicles.
IV. investment proposal & target selection
From a fundamental point of view, lithium resources are tight in 22 and 23 years, and it is difficult to alleviate them significantly in 24 and 25 years. Lithium has the attribute of periodic growth. At present, in the stock price, the market still treats lithium as a periodic price increase variety. The market needs to accept the high price and high profit of lithium sector in the next two years at least, especially the companies with resources.
The next good layout time point of the sector is to strengthen the verification of fundamental data before the first quarterly report + the catalysis of high elastic performance in the first quarterly report. In terms of the target, in the past 22 years, we focused on the performance idea, divided the sectors, and focused on the companies with resources, processing capacity and growth in the future, such as leading Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng lithium industry, elastic targets Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) , Keda Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600499) .
V. risk warning
The production progress of new capacity and re production capacity of lithium mine exceeded expectations.
