Core view
In December, automobile sales were steady and good, and many automobile enterprises refreshed the sales record of 2021
1. CAAC released the data of December 2021. In December 2021, China's automobile production / sales were 2.907 million / 2.786 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.4% / - 1.6% respectively. In 2021, the annual automobile production / sales volume was 26.082 million / 26.275 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.4% / + 3.8% respectively, ending the negative growth for three consecutive years. Among them, the annual production and sales of passenger cars were 21.408 million / 21.482 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.1% / + 6.5% respectively.
2. The year-on-year decline of monthly data narrowed and continued to grow month on month. 1) The year-on-year decline narrowed. In the third quarter of 2021, under the influence of core shortage, the year-on-year sales data was under pressure, and the year-on-year decline in recent March was gradually narrowing. The year-on-year sales in September, October, November and December were - 17.9% / - 9.4% / - 9.3% / - 1.6% respectively; 2) The growth trend was good month on month. Since September, auto sales have increased month on month for four consecutive months, with a month on month increase of + 14.9% / + 12.8% / + 8.1% / + 10.5% in September, October, November and December respectively. SAIC, GAC, great wall, Chery and other auto companies all set a new monthly sales record in 2021 in December.
New energy vehicles continued to increase, and the market share of independent brands increased significantly
1. The sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to increase month on month. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in December was 531000, with a month on month ratio of + 113.9% / + 11.1% respectively. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.1%, with a month on month increase of 1.3pct. In 2021, the annual sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.334 million, a year-on-year increase of + 120.6%, and the annual penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 15.6%, a year-on-year increase of + 10.2pct.
2. With the first mover advantage of new energy, the market share of independent brands has increased significantly. According to the China Federation of riders, in December, 930000 independent brand cars were retailed, with a yoy ratio of + 4% / + 12% respectively. China's market share reached 46.3%, with a year-on-year ratio of + 6.9pct. In terms of car enterprises, the brands with retail growth of new energy vehicles exceeding 100% include great wall (+ 138%), SAIC passenger car (+ 146%), GAC AIAN (+ 112%), Weilai (+ 109%), Chery (+ 124%), Geely (+ 170%), etc; Brands with a growth rate of more than 200% include Byd Company Limited(002594) (+ 218%), Xiaopeng (+ 275%), Hezhong automobile (+ 361%) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (+ 319%).
In 2022, it is optimistic about the elasticity of replenishment + the release of delayed demand, and the growth rate is elastic
We believe that the insufficient inventory depth from 8m21 will significantly affect the release of vehicle market demand (12m21 inventory coefficient returns to 1.43, still below the warning line), and some demand will be deferred to 2022. In 2022, the volume of auto wholesale sales is flexible under the dual drive of retail demand deferral and inventory replenishment elasticity release. Under the benchmark assumptions of actual demand growth of 5.0%, 380000 retail deferred release and 200000 net inventory replenishment, it is expected to achieve year-on-year + 11.8%.
Investment suggestion: we believe that from the perspective of medium-term investment, there is no need to worry about the recovery intensity of core shortage. With the deep recovery of inventory, wholesale and retail sales in the auto market is expected to usher in a synchronous recovery. 1. It is recommended to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) with large replenishment space and market share, as well as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) with upward product cycle. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to achieve domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is recommended to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automobile industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automobile intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy automobile industry is less than expected.
