\u3000\u30001. New energy vehicle
In mid December, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles exceeded 500000
We believe that: 1) the production and sales of electric vehicles in China continued to improve on a month on month basis. The production and sales of electric vehicles in December were more than 500000, with an increase of 6.7% and 11.1% to 518000 and 531000 respectively on a month on month basis. Once again, the monthly record was refreshed. The prosperity of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles continued to maintain a high level, driving the expansion of the demand of the new energy vehicle industry chain. 2) With the high sales volume of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary batteries continues to grow. From January to December 2021, the installed capacity of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate batteries in China accounted for 48.1% and 51.7% respectively. In the medium and long term, ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate batteries will develop in parallel, and the application field will be clearer. Suppliers of head batteries, cathode materials and enterprises with leading technology have leading industry development advantages.
Core view:
We believe that with the continuous improvement of sales structure and quality of new energy vehicles and the continuous introduction of high-quality new models, supply will drive demand change, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to accelerate, and the sales volume is expected to achieve rapid growth. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, and the core supply chain of Tesla, Volkswagen MEB platform, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG chemistry, new forces, Hongguang miniev and other models with best-selling potential;
2) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
3) cathode materials, lithium salt additives, conductive agents and other links driving technological innovation and product iteration;
4) the demand for high nickel ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries brought about by the development of high-end + economic polarization, and the pattern of ternary cathode materials continues to be optimized under the trend of high nickel;
5) the increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand, and it is expected that copper foil, diaphragm and other links with tight supply and demand;
6) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industry demand;
7) second tier targets that benefit from the growth of the industry and the continuous improvement of their own competitiveness and are expected to expand market share;
8) energy storage, two wheeled vehicles and other segments with structural opportunities; And continuously improve the charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary objects: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Ningbo Zhenyu Technology Co.Ltd(300953) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc
\u3000\u30002. new energy
The price of silicon materials and wafers increased
We believe that in the short term, after the recent game between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the silicon material price has fallen, and the overall price of the industrial chain has been adjusted accordingly; This month, the operating rate of silicon wafer link continued to increase, the demand for battery chips improved slightly, the downstream demand is expected to be optimistic, and the terminal has strong price elasticity;
Throughout the year, with the gradual production of new polysilicon production capacity and the gradual promotion of technical transformation projects, it is expected that the shortage of polysilicon supply is expected to be alleviated, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, which will drive the downstream installed demand to improve, and the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase.
Core view:
(1) photovoltaic
In the short term, the downward cost price of each link of the industrial chain will stimulate the willingness of downstream installation; With the gradual implementation of superimposed large-scale scenery base projects and distributed photovoltaic projects throughout the county, the photovoltaic landscape is expected to continue to rise in the future.
In the medium and long term, “carbon peak”, “carbon neutralization” and the proportion of non fossil energy in primary energy consumption will reach about 20% / 25% in 2025 / 2030. The goal is clear. New energy such as photovoltaic will play an important role in energy transformation and carbon emission reduction in the future. Pay attention to the supply-demand relationship under market changes and structural opportunities under technological changes, such as inverter, photovoltaic adhesive film, photovoltaic glass, vertically integrated manufacturers, distributed photovoltaic, consumables and equipment links, photovoltaic support, etc.
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc.
(2) wind power
In the short term, the trend of large-scale fan is significant, and the overall cost is expected to decline; With the continuous promotion of large-scale landscape base projects and the acceleration of offshore wind power cost reduction, the wind power landscape is expected to be improved. In the medium and long term, wind power is one of the alternative forms of energy to achieve “carbon neutrality”, and we continue to be optimistic about the installed demand and development space of the wind power industry.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities in the following links: 1) the wind power landscape continues to rise, and look forward to the opportunities of domestic components under the trend of large-scale and pattern change, such as tower, main shaft, casting, blade and so on; 2) Optimistic about the profit recovery link under the price adjustment of raw materials; 3) Optimistic about the domestic replacement of precision parts such as spindle bearings; 4) Be optimistic about the opportunities under the change of whole machine link pattern and technological change; 5) The cost of offshore wind power continues to drop, and the demand is expected to continue to increase. We are optimistic about marine products, submarine cables and other related links.
Beneficiary objects: Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , etc.
(3) energy storage
In 2025, the target of energy storage installed capacity, market position and business model have been clarified, relevant national and local policies have been further improved, and energy storage will accelerate with renewable energy; With the application of new derived ecosystems such as superimposed distributed power stations, charging piles and microgrids, energy storage on the generation side, grid side and user side will meet new application requirements. We are optimistic about the three main lines of lithium battery, inverter and energy storage system integration under the development opportunity of energy storage
Beneficiary objects: Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power limitation did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The risk of epidemic development exceeded expectations.
