General view and recommendation of the industry: Securities Companies: frequent policies, optimistic about the long-term development of securities companies. ① Recently, a series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) are conducive to the industrial chain of ficc, wealth management and large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center is rising: the wealth management business continues to grow, and channels, products and investment advisers benefit deeply; The scale of derivatives has maintained rapid growth in recent years, new products have been launched one after another, the superposition system has been continuously standardized, and ficc constitutes the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increments. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (2015-2016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies. Insurance: wait for the industry to pick up and pay attention to the reform process of listed insurance enterprises. ① The negative effects of the comprehensive reform of property insurance and auto insurance have fully emerged, and the stronger the industry pattern is. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the premium growth of major insurance enterprises is expected to pick up. At the same time, in the long run, the industry competition pattern will be optimized, and the leading insurance enterprises will benefit deeply, further strengthen the advantages of scale, channel and brand, and create competitive barriers. ② Due to the contradiction between supply and demand in the life insurance industry in the short term, the pressure on the liability side is significant. However, in the long run, with the promotion of channel transformation, the aging trend of population and the strategic requirements of “healthy China”, the life insurance industry is facing profound reconstruction: the gradual formation of medical care ecology of insurance enterprises, with the increasing demand for health care, drives the industry to a virtuous cycle of development and growth, and is expected to promote the trend improvement of both ends of industry assets and liabilities. Soochow Bank of Africa recommended sector ranking: securities, insurance, recommended stock portfolio [China stock market news], [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) ] (Hong Kong stocks), [China Property Insurance] and [far east Hongxin].
Important changes and comments in the industry: 1) Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 2021 performance express: the performance slightly exceeded expectations, the allotment of shares was steadily promoted, and the strong one of the leading securities companies was HENGQIANG. We believe that: ① the parent company’s net profit reached a new high, and the balanced development of performance led to the high growth of roe; ② The high prosperity of the market drives the continuous development of wealth management, and the investment banking business continues to take the lead; ③ The steady progress of share allotment is expected to enhance the company’s capital strength, and the institutional business is expected to be strong and strong. 2) Alipay’s “golden selection” service was stopped for ten days on the line. We believe that Alipay’s “golden selection” service was halted because of compliance, reflecting the importance of regulation for business development. In the context of the popularity of wealth management business and the fund investment adviser as an important component, which widely caters to the needs of customers and is highly favored by the market, the suspension of the “golden investment adviser” service by the supervision sounded an alarm for the development of the industry and made it clear that the premise of the rapid development and expansion of the industry is safety and compliance. 3) The CBRC issued the measures for the administration of connected transactions of banking and insurance institutions. We believe that: ① the measures focus on the pain points of related party transactions existing in banking and insurance institutions, implement more strict supervision of related party transactions, and avoid the risk of interest transmission. It is expected that after the implementation of the measures, it will be more favorable to insurance enterprises that use funds in a standardized manner and fully comply with the regulatory principles.
Risk tips: 1) the macro economy is not as expected; 2) Policy convergence inhibits industry innovation; 3) Market competition intensifies risks.
