Event:
According to the passenger Federation, the wholesale volume of domestic Tesla in December 2021 was 70847, with a year-on-year increase of 197.63% and a month on month increase of 34.03%. Among them, 70602 vehicles were sold domestically, an increase of 122.49% month on month.
Key investment points:
In December 2021, the sales volume of domestic Tesla exceeded 70000, a record high. The wholesale volume of domestic Tesla in December was 70847, up 197.63% year-on-year and 34.03% month on month. Among them, 70602 vehicles were sold domestically, up 122.49% month on month; 245 vehicles were exported, down 98.84% month on month. Domestic Tesla’s sales exceeded 50000 for four consecutive months, and its wholesale volume and internal sales reached a record high in December. The change direction of sales volume and export volume in December is significantly different, which is mainly due to the fact that the Shanghai factory undertakes the task of supplying the European market. Therefore, Tesla’s vehicles produced in China are mainly used for export in the first half of each quarter and mainly used for domestic sales in the last month.
In December 2021, the sales volume of domestic modely exceeded 40000. The production and sales volume of modely produced by Shanghai Super factory increased from 3720 / 1641 in January 2021 to 25864 / 33544 in September, and the sales volume in December was 40558, up 51.6% month on month. In 2022, Tesla’s Shanghai plant will be expanded. Tesla estimates that after the optimization and expansion of the production line at this stage is completed, 4000 jobs will be added, bringing the total number of employees of Shanghai Super factory to 19000. After the rapid expansion of production capacity, the annual production capacity of Tesla Shanghai plant will be further improved on the current basis, and the sales volume of modely will be further improved with the increase of production capacity.
The Shanghai plant has become Tesla’s global delivery and export center. In 2021, domestic Tesla exported more than 160000 vehicles to more than 10 countries in Europe and Asia. Among them, the export volume of 2021q4 reached 62000, a slight increase over Q3. In 2021, model 3 exported a total of 133100 vehicles, which is the main export model; As a new model, modely mainly focuses on ensuring domestic sales, contributing 30600 export vehicles in the whole year. Thanks to the high intelligence, digitization and high localization rate of parts, Tesla Shanghai Super factory has surpassed Fremont factory and become Tesla’s new export center.
Modely topped the 2021 Chinese high-end SUV retail ranking. While undertaking the export task, the domestic sales performance of domestic Tesla is also excellent. After breaking through 50000 vehicles for the first time in September 2021, it broke the record again with more than 70000 vehicles in December. In 2021, the annual sales volume of Model3 / modely reached 151000 / 17000 respectively, of which modely increased rapidly month on month, from 1641 in January to 40500 in December. The popularity of modely models in the Chinese market can be seen. According to the statistics of the passenger Union, modely ranked first in China’s high-end SUV sales in December 2021 and the whole year. We believe that as a new model that has just entered the Chinese market for one year, its sales will show greater potential in 2022.
Tesla’s global sales volume in 2021 was 936000, with domestic sales accounting for more than 50%. In 2021, Tesla’s Shanghai Super factory sold 484000 vehicles, accounting for more than 50% of Tesla’s annual delivery of 936000 vehicles. In the context of “lack of core”, Tesla can still achieve significant growth in sales. In addition to the rapid improvement of production capacity, it also benefits from Tesla’s highly vertically integrated supply chain strategy, which enables it to flexibly adjust and control the supply chain and better ensure the supply of parts. We predict that Tesla will have a global production capacity of 2.1/2.9 million vehicles and a sales volume of 1.74/2.64 million vehicles in 2022 / 2023. Among them, domestic Tesla sold 800000 vehicles in 2022.
Industry rating and investment strategy: in 2021, Shanghai factory will be opened to more domestic suppliers, and all links of the supply system will be fully introduced into corner B. Tesla’s sales volume increased rapidly, and Tesla’s business income of the original a-corner supplier still increased significantly α， The performance of new suppliers in corner B is flexible. As the core supplier of Tesla industrial chain, ASP continues to grow. By enabling domestic suppliers with highly integrated solutions, Tesla continues to expand categories and enhance system integration capabilities, thus promoting the value of supporting single vehicles, which is just the opposite of the traditional OEM supply system. This trend will also be reflected in the reform of the supply system of new forces. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Key recommended stocks: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting, which will promote the Tesla wave in the next stage. We expect that Tesla will appear in batches in 2022: Tesla will become the largest customer and new forces will enter the domestic suppliers of Tesla industrial chain of the top five customers. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , and pay attention to Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) .
Risk tip: Tesla Berlin plant and Texas plant are not progressing as expected; Tesla’s Shanghai plant expanded less than expected; The recovery of automobile chip shortage was less than expected; Tesla’s global sales are lower than expected; Focus on the company’s performance less than expected.
