Key investment points:
Investment suggestions: 1) complete vehicles and parts: in December 2021, China’s automobile sales volume was 2.786 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6%. In 2021, the annual automobile sales volume was 26.275 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the Spring Festival Promotion, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will further increase in the first quarter of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to independent brands. The development of electric and intelligent vehicles promotes the transformation and upgrading of parts. Recently, horizon and SAIC GM Wuling have officially reached a comprehensive strategic cooperation. The two sides will rely on their respective technology accumulation and industrial resource advantages in the fields of automobile and artificial intelligence to promote the implementation of intelligent driving related products, and the intelligent configuration of vehicles will gradually penetrate from luxury cars to civilian models, It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in the fields of intelligent cockpit, intelligent driving and ADAS sensors. 2) New energy vehicles: in December 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 531000, with a year-on-year increase of 113.9%. In 2021, the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 3521000, with a year-on-year increase of 157.5%. In 2022, the subsidy for new energy vehicles declined by 30%. Affected by the rise of upstream raw material prices, the rise of power battery prices and the decline of subsidies, new energy vehicles ushered in a round of price adjustment, As a result, the demand side is worried by the market. In fact, we believe that under the influence of the continuous improvement of product power, the rich supply of high-quality models and the industrial scale effect, the impact on the demand side is limited. It is estimated that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is still expected to exceed 5 million in 2022, According to the annual performance forecast recently disclosed by listed companies, it can be seen that the performance of the new energy vehicle industry is bright, so it is still recommended to focus on the new energy vehicle industry.
Market review: last week, the automobile (Shenwan) industry index rose 1.39%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.37 percentage points. Among them, passenger cars – 0.46%, commercial vehicles – 1.79% and auto parts – 2.98%. The new energy vehicle index rose 0.88%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.86 percentage points, including power battery 3.79%, lithium positive electrode 3.29%, lithium negative electrode 3.76%, lithium diaphragm 1.15% and electrolyte – 2.61%.
Industry trends: 1) Ministry of industry and information technology: strengthen efforts to promote the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent networked vehicles; 2) Horizon and SAIC GM Wuling jointly promote the mass production and popularization of intelligent driving; 3) Honda will build a new electric vehicle plant in the United States.
Company dynamics: 1) Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) : Announcement on receiving fixed-point notice; 2) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : Announcement on the signing of major contracts by the holding subsidiary Shanghai Enjie New Material Technology Co., Ltd; 3) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) : announcement of annual performance increase in 2021.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
