Last week (January 10, 2022 – January 16, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.63%, the Shenwan food and beverage index fell 4.40%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.77 percentage points, ranking 27th among the 31 Tier-1 sub industries of Shenwan. The food and beverage sector continued to retune, with all sub sectors falling, and Baijiu sector still larger.
Near the Spring Festival, high-end and high-end Baijiu consumption heat continues. Moutai 1935 is on the market and is committed to building another 1000 Baijiu high-end liquor. Wuliang Luzhou flavor lunar new year wine sold out in the first round of pre-sale, setting a new marketing record for Lunar New Year wine; The product quota of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) in the first quarter of 2022 has been implemented, and the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) version 60 and version 80 series products is suspended. Baijiu Baijiu and Baijiu hot end, the Baijiu sector stocks continued to decline this week, the main reason is that the market worried that the consumption tax may reform and the consumption of liquor is unfavorable, which led to a sharp return of the liquor sector. But in the long run, the trend of Baijiu consumption upgrading is unchanged, and the upward trend of the sector has a solid demand base. Even if the subsequent consumption tax is officially implemented, the impact on high-end liquor enterprises with high gross profit is limited, and it is still an excellent target of value investment in the long run. Suggestions: Baijiu Baijiu Baijiu (Baijiu): Liquor: high end liquor has strong profitability, and the second high-end liquor continues to grow. It is optimistic about the investment opportunities of high-end and secondary high-end liquor sectors. “1. 2) Beer: under the background of consumption upgrading, the high-end beer has been accelerated, and the fine brewing has ushered in a wind mouth of 100 billion. The long-term good trend of the sector remains unchanged. 3) Condiment: the cost is expected to decline at a high level, the industry can recover gradually, and the peak season of the Spring Festival is coming. It is suggested to pay attention to the dynamic sales. 4) Dairy products: the industry integration is accelerating, the profitability will be improved in the future, and the sector is expected to usher in a performance period. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading segments of the sector.
Key investment points:
Baijiu weekly: last week, the Baijiu sector fell 4.71%, of which Beijing Shunxin Agriculture Co.Ltd(000860) (-10.02%), Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (-9.44%) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) (-8.85%) fell by three. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : last week, the wholesale price of Maotai liquor increased slightly. In the past 20 years, the wholesale price of Feitian Maotai liquor was about 3330 yuan, which was at a high level. The price of Feitian bulk bottles increased slightly, from 2820 yuan to 2830 yuan. Maotai 1935 will be on the market soon. Maotai 1935 will be officially launched in Maotai Chinese liquor culture city on January 18. At present, the dealer can place an order for payment. The dealer’s payment price is 798 yuan per bottle, and the market guidance price has not been announced. However, at the “2021 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) Maotai flavor series liquor National Dealer Association”, Maotai clearly proposed to build Maotai 1935 into a high-end product occupying 1000 yuan. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : the price of Wuliang Luzhou flavor Chinese Zodiac liquor in the year of the tiger was adjusted to 1599 yuan / bottle. As soon as Wuliang Luzhou flavor Chinese Zodiac liquor came into market, it sold well all over the network and kept heating up. The first round of pre-sale has been sold out, and it has been sold out in JD, tmall, Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) The total pre-sale volume of the three platforms soared by 350% over the same period, setting a new record for the marketing of Chinese Zodiac wine. Now the second round of rush buying continues, and the recommended retail price of each online platform is adjusted to 1599 yuan / bottle. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : Tequ version 60 and version 80 series products are stopped. On January 13, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) nostalgic liquor Marketing Co., Ltd. issued the notice on suspending the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) Tequ series products of version 60 and 80. Notification display. Since the product quota has been implemented in the first quarter of 2022, the company has decided to suspend the receipt of orders for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) version 60 and version 80 series products from now on.
\u3000\u3000 Qinghai Huzhu Barley Wine Co.Ltd(002646)
Investor interaction platform responded to investors, saying that the company has developed a number of low and fashionable highland barley Baijiu products, and will be put to market when the time is ripe. At present, the company has implemented classified policies according to different market conditions, and has mainly promoted medium and high-end products in some markets.
Other sectors of food and beverage:
Non Baijiu: Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) : put forward the strategy of large single million tons. Recently, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) – Deloitte China strategic cooperation launching ceremony was held at Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) group headquarters. At the event, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) proposed the strategy of “starting a new journey in the 14th five year plan” to realize the strategy of one million tons of large single products. In order to enhance the regional competitive advantage, concentrate advantageous resources and win local market competition, Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.Ltd(000729) actively innovate the marketing mode, actively transform the younger brand, and lead high-quality development driven by scientific and technological innovation.
Snack food: Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) : there is no price increase plan for nuts. Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) on January 14, the company announced the price increase of some products on October 22, 2021. On the day of release, the ex factory prices of dealers have been fully adjusted. At present, the prices of terminals and stores have been basically adjusted and are progressing smoothly. Although some raw materials of nuts and sea freight have increased at present, the company will strive to overcome these factors. In the next 2-3 years, the company will focus on expanding the scale of daily nuts, hoping to be absolutely the first in subdivided categories, and will further consider whether to increase the price after the improvement of brand power and channel power.
Risk factors: 1 Policy risk 2 Food safety risk 3 Epidemic risk 4 The risk of economic growth falling short of expectations.
