\u3000\u3000 Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) (300628)
Event overview: on January 14, 2022, the company released the annual performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 1.573-1.662 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23% - 30%. Q4's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 355-444 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31% - 64%. Q4's revenue and profit have reached a record high, and the non recurring profit and loss is about 189 million yuan.
The annual performance exceeded expectations, and the equity incentive target was still exceeded under the influence of many adverse factors. Calculated according to the median value of the forecast, the company's revenue in 21 years was 3.691 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 34%. According to wind, the average exchange rate of US dollar to RMB in 21 years was 6.45 and 6.90 in the same period. Calculated according to the comparable caliber of US dollar, the revenue in 21 years increased by 43.37% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.618 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.50%. We believe that the sharp rise in the price of raw materials and the sharp appreciation of RMB have had a certain adverse impact. Under the influence of adverse factors such as exchange rate fluctuations and rising prices of raw materials, combined with the impact of Xiamen epidemic in the second half of the year on the overall production and delivery, the company can still exceed the rapid growth of revenue and profit, and complete the equity incentive target (revenue and profit increase by 25%) and partner incentive fund target (revenue increase by 30%) as scheduled, highlighting the company's strong brand Competitive advantages of R & D and channels.
The market share of SIP phones has been further improved, and new products have been introduced to the market. According to Frost & Sullivan data, in 2020, the company ranked first in the global market share of SIP phones for four consecutive years, and the market share further increased from 29.6% in 2019 to 34.3% in 2020. According to IDC's report, the company ranked fifth in global shipments of Q3 video conferencing system in 2021, and was the only Chinese enterprise on the list. Looking back on 2021, the company successively launched new products in many fields to enhance brand influence. In the field of cloud office terminals, in January, the company launched four new wh6x series wireless DECT headphones, USB wired headphones uh34, USB phone MP50, USB webcam uvc20, professional broadband traffic headphones yhs34 and other new products. In the field of Xinchuang, the company passed the UOS certification of Tongxin in the first half of 21, fully meeting the domestic Xinchuang standard. In the field of cloud video conference, in October of 21, the company and Tencent jointly launched the special Android all-in-one machine meetingbara20 / A30 for Tencent conference, which is the most important core supplier of Tencent conference. In November of 21, the company launched a new generation of high-definition intelligent USB all-in-one machine uvc34, which leads the whole industry.
The performance is expected to usher in an inflection point and is optimistic that the company will achieve the equity incentive goal in 22 years. According to the median value of the forecast, Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.162 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 46.47% and a month on month increase of 32%. The absolute value was the highest in the history of a single quarter; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 399 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47.42%. The high growth mainly came from the strong demand for mobile office abroad. We believe that the repeated epidemic has further changed people's habits of office life, and mobile office communication equipment will gradually change from optional equipment to mandatory equipment. The industry is expected to maintain rapid growth in the next three years, and the company will fully benefit as an industry leader. We are optimistic that the company will achieve the equity incentive target of 22-23 years (revenue and profit increase by 20%) and the five-year partner incentive target (annual revenue increase by 30%) in the future.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.599/2.198/2.824 billion respectively, the corresponding PE multiple is 45x / 33x / 25X, the company's valuation center in recent 5 years is 40x, and the valuation center continues to improve. We judge that the company will usher in high demand growth, gross profit margin improvement and capacity expansion. The performance in 22 years is expected to usher in an inflection point and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly affects China's production and overseas demand; Exchange rate fluctuations; Risk of raw material price rise.
