\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) (002839)
Summary of express: 1. The growth of revenue was stable, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by nearly 30% year-on-year. In the whole year of 21, the growth rate of revenue remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8%; Under the excellent asset quality, the provision released profits and promoted the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent by 29.8% year-on-year. 2. Net interest income in the fourth quarter was - 5.8% month on month, mainly dragged down by interest margin. The quarterly annualized net interest margin measured by average total assets was 2.26%, a month on month decrease of 21bp. The asset side is expected to be dragged down by interest rate factors, and the proportion of loans in total assets increased month on month in terms of structure. The debt side is expected to be affected by structural factors. The company increased the scale of active liabilities, increased the proportion of issuing bonds, and decreased the proportion of deposits, resulting in an increase in the cost of liabilities. 3. The growth rate of personal loans was beautiful, and the credit structure continued to be optimized. Loans maintained a strong growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; Among them, personal loans and personal operating loans performed prominently, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.1% / 29.6% respectively, accounting for 44.4% / 26.4% of loans. Deposit 4q increased by 1.3% month on month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.0%. The proportion of deposits in total liabilities decreased by 1.2pct to 79.6%. 4. The overall asset quality was stable, and the provision level continued to improve. The non-performing rate rose 1bp to 0.95% month on month, which was generally stable at a historically good level, and the stock risk had been cleared to a historically low level. The coverage rate was 479.5% in 2021, 27.8pct higher than 3Q. The loan allocation ratio was 4.56%, up 31bp month on month.
Investment suggestion: 2021e, 2022e Pb 0.93x/0.86x; PE 8.49x/8.66x (rural commercial bank Pb 0.76x/0.72x; PE 7.77x / 7.19x). The company actively transformed small and micro businesses, continuously improved the contribution of deposit and loan and revenue of retail business, greatly optimized and consolidated asset quality, and generally stable fundamentals. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Note: according to the performance express, we fine tune the profit forecast and predict that the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022-2023 will be 6.191/7.208 billion and 1.273/1.399 billion (the previous values were 6.004/6.992 billion and 1.212/1.332 billion).
Risk tip: the macro economy is facing downward pressure, and the bank's operating performance is lower than expected.
