\u3000\u3000 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271)
Key investment points
Event: 2021 annual performance express was released on January 14 Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) . In 2021, the annual revenue reached 31.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 46.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.5%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.7%. In the fourth quarter alone, the revenue was 9.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.9%.
Q4 revenue continued to increase rapidly, and the effect of integrated operation + category expansion was remarkable. According to the data of China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) waterproof Association, it is estimated that the main business income of Enterprises above the standard in the waterproof industry will increase by about 10% in the whole year of 21, and the income growth of the company in the year of 21 will be 46.7%, leading the industry level. Among them, the revenue growth rate in the fourth quarter was 36.4%, which was basically flat compared with the previous quarter. It still achieved rapid growth under the background of the downturn of downstream real estate demand. We believe that on the one hand, the high increase in income benefits from the company’s integrated operation, the sinking of channels and the development of non real estate business, and the continuous improvement of market share; On the other hand, the company’s category expansion has achieved remarkable results, and the non waterproof businesses such as architectural coatings and thermal insulation materials have achieved high growth. Among them, the sales of de Aiwei in 21 years reached 2.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 133%; In addition, the continuous sinking of the company’s retail channel has not only promoted the rapid development of the business of the civil construction group, but also further promoted the revenue growth.
The role of price increase continued to show, and the net interest rate improved month on month. We expect the company’s gross profit margin of 21q4 to increase month on month compared with Q3, mainly because the company’s Q4 price increase has been gradually implemented, and the company’s selective procurement of raw materials in the early stage has reduced the cost. In the fourth quarter alone, the company’s net interest rate was 16.4%, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.3pct and a month on month increase of + 2.7pct. We believe that Q4 is the peak period of payment collection. The company actively strengthens payment collection to reduce accounts receivable and offset the corresponding accrued amount at the same time, which may also contribute to the improvement of the performance of the whole year.
Downstream demand has gradually bottomed out to ensure that housing is expected to contribute new business increments. We believe that the excessively tight real estate regulation policy in the early stage has been relaxed, and it is expected to continue to guide the steady development of the market from both ends of supply and demand in the future; Moreover, with the moderate advance of infrastructure investment in 22 years, the demand related to infrastructure is expected to grow, and the demand of waterproof industry may be in the process of bottom building. In addition, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the demand for affordable housing is expected to be released rapidly. In our previous report, traditional building materials turn around and emerging materials take advantage of the trend, we calculated that the potential supply of affordable housing in 40 cities during the 14th Five Year Plan period reached 7.57 million units, with a corresponding area of 380 million square meters. The construction of affordable housing is expected to stimulate the demand of the real estate chain, To some extent, it hedges the impact of downward real estate demand. As a leading enterprise, the company has a high market share in the first and second tier cities with concentrated affordable housing construction, and is expected to benefit from new business increment.
Core logic: 1) under the trend of improving industry standards and downstream customer concentration, leading companies promote the steady increase of market share by virtue of leading advantages such as brand, channel, scale, capital, customer resources and management ability; 2) Relying on the resources and customer advantages accumulated by the core waterproof business, the company actively carries out business cooperation and fully extends to multiple fields (coating, thermal insulation, etc.) to contribute to the performance increment; 3) Channel sinking under the “integrated operation and management” of the company, effectively integrate key elements such as projects, channels and categories, expand non real estate business, expand affordable housing, urban renewal and other markets, and further consolidate competitive advantages; 4) With the promotion of the whole county, the photovoltaic roof waterproof market is expected to contribute new increment. The company has cooperated with a number of photovoltaic enterprises and has sufficient TPO coil capacity support, so it is in a leading position in the competition.
Investment suggestion: taking into account the information disclosed in the company’s performance express and the annual operation, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 and 22 years to be 4.19 billion yuan and 5.31 billion yuan respectively (4.01 billion yuan and 5.6 billion yuan were predicted last time), corresponding to 29 and 23 times of PE, and maintained the “overweight” rating at the current time point.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies; Downstream real estate demand is lower than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The risk of rapid growth in the scale of accounts receivable.
