\u3000\u3000 China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) (601898)
Event: on January 14, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021. According to the Chinese accounting standards for business enterprises, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of RMB 11.77 billion to 14.38 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 99.4% to 143.6%.
Q4 performance fell sharply. According to the estimation of the announcement, in the fourth quarter, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 86 million yuan ~ 2.524 billion yuan, down 41% ~ 102% month on month
In 2021, the company's coal production and sales increased. According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the company achieved 112.74 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and achieved 209.27 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, including 110.74 million tons of self-produced commercial coal, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, Q4 achieved a commercial coal output of 29.76 million tons, a month on month increase of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. The sales volume of Q4 commercial coal was 68.38 million tons, a month on month decrease of 7.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%.
The production and sales of olefin urea were stable, and the sales of methanol increased greatly. In 2021, the company achieved a polyolefin output of 1.464 million tons, the same as the same period last year. The polyolefin sales volume was 1.461 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, of which Q4 output was 370000 tons, a month on month increase of 16.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. The annual sales of urea were 2.213 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, of which Q4 sales were 510000 tons, a month on month increase of 15% and a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%. In 2021, the company sold 1.266 million tons of methanol, a year-on-year increase of 84%, of which 490000 tons of methanol were sold in Q4, a month on month increase of 82.8% and a year-on-year increase of 103.3%.
The company's self-produced coal long-term association accounts for 80%, and its performance is expected to thicken. At the mid-term performance presentation meeting in 2021, the company said that the signing proportion of self-produced coal long-term Association contract is no less than 80%, and the proportion of long-term association coal is relatively high. Referring to the average long-term association price of about 650 yuan / ton in 2021, the increase of the benchmark price of long-term association to 700 yuan / ton means that the price center of long-term association is likely to move upward. The performance of the long association coal part of the company is expected to thicken.
The capacity under construction is large, and the volume and price are expected to rise in the future. According to the announcement, by the end of 2020, the company's equity production capacity was 145 million T / A, including 23 pairs of in-process production capacity, 125 million T / a equity production capacity, 4 pairs of under construction capacity and 20.64 million T / a equity production capacity. According to the company's interim performance briefing, the company's mines will be put into operation every year from 2022 to 2024. The construction scale of dahaize coal mine is 15 million tons / year (100% equity), which is expected to be completed in the first half of 2022, and the construction scale of Weizigou coal mine is 2.4 million tons / year (equity capacity of 2.04 million tons / year), which is expected to be completed in 2023; The construction scale of Libi coal mine is 4 million tons / year (equity capacity: 2.04 million tons / year), and it is expected to be completed in 2024. In the next four years, the company's self-produced coal is expected to continue to grow. Under the background of the upward movement of the price center of the long-term association, the company is expected to increase both volume and price.
Investment suggestion: considering the large fluctuation of the company's cost and impairment, the profit forecast is lowered. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 13.936/16.636/18.281 billion yuan, equivalent to EPS of 1.05/1.25/1.38 respectively, corresponding to PE of 6 times, 5 times and 5 times respectively on January 14, 2022. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: coal prices have fallen sharply; The price of coal chemical products fell sharply; The capacity under construction is less than expected.
