\u3000\u3000 Yealink Network Technology Co.Ltd(300628) (300628)
The performance continued to grow steadily and reached a new high in a single quarter. The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.58-3.8 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 30-38%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.57-1.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 23-30%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the revenue reached RMB 1.05-1.27 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32-60%, reaching a record high in a single quarter. The company's revenue in the single quarter of 2021 was RMB 7.4/9.1/8.8/10.5-1.27 billion respectively.
The decline in profit margins reversed. According to the median value, the net profit margin of Q4 in 21 years was about 34.4%, slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the same period of Q4 in 2020, reversing the continuous decline of net profit margin in the first three quarters of 2021 (the year-on-year change of net profit margin in 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 was about - 5.9 / - 3.1 / - 0.8 percentage points respectively), It shows that the impact of negative factors such as exchange rate / raw materials / supply chain has gradually subsided (the profit margin in Q4 is lower than that in other quarters, mainly due to the impact of factors such as year-end bonus in Q4).
Excluding the impact of non operating factors, the growth rate exceeded expectations. In 2021, affected by non operating factors such as exchange rate / price rise of raw materials, the overall profit margin of the company decreased to a certain extent. As these negative effects gradually subside, and the company's own operating efficiency is improved and the price of product structure is optimized, the fluctuation of profit margin is gradually reduced. According to our prediction, if the impact of exchange rate is excluded (the exchange rate between China and the United States in 2020 / 2021 is calculated according to 6.8 / 6.4), the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue and profit in 2021 will be about 38% - 46%.
The product competitiveness is outstanding, and the new product line is growing rapidly. According to Frost & Sullivan, the company's global market share in SIP Phone shipments increased from 29.6% in 2019 to 34.3% in 2020, ranking first in a row. At the same time, the company has become the fifth manufacturer of video conference system VCs products in the world. With the steady growth of basic service SIP phones, new services (VCS / cloud office terminals) continue to grow rapidly, and the proportion of services in revenue has reached 31% in the middle of 2021, and continues to maintain high-speed growth. Lay a solid foundation for the further development of the company in the future.
Profit forecast and Valuation: the company operates steadily, all business lines are in good development, and the second growth curve is open. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.62 billion, RMB 2.19 billion and RMB 2.69 billion, corresponding to 44 / 33 / 27 times of the current share price PE respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: trade friction intensifies and affects the company's main business; The epidemic situation affects the demand of the industry; The shortage of raw materials affects the delivery.
