\u3000\u3000 Yifan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002019) (002019)
F-627ummar is expected to be approved in three places, and the clinical progress of f-652 is smooth
The US FDA and European EMA have officially accepted the listing application of f-627. At the same time, the company is expected to submit the listing application in China in the first quarter of 2022. If it takes the green review channel, it is expected to be approved to be listed in three places within 2022. With the increasing number of new cancer patients in China, the market scale of long-acting G-CSF drugs is expected to further grow, and it is expected to reach 13.537 billion yuan in 2030. In terms of commercialization, the Chinese company has signed an exclusive commercialization cooperation agreement with Zhengda Tianqing, and the commercialization of the U.S. and European markets is also continuing. In addition, in September 2021, the new indication of f-652 slow plus acute liver failure was approved by China Phase II clinical trial. At present, 4 patients have been successfully enrolled in the phase IIa clinical trial. It is expected that the application of the U.S. FDA and the global multicenter clinical trial will be launched in time according to the independent data analysis of IDMC in the third quarter of 2022.
The price of calcium pantothenate is raised, and the performance is expected to achieve substantial growth
Affected by the rising price of upstream raw materials, the market quotation of calcium pantothenate has continued to increase since the fourth quarter of 2021. According to the latest news from health.com on January 11, 2022, Chinese manufacturers of calcium pantothenate resumed their quotation, increasing from 60-70 yuan / kg in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 360 yuan / kg in China and US $50 / kg in export. The R & D, production and sales of API and polymer materials are the main business of Hangzhou Xinfu, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, which makes a great contribution to the company’s net profit. From 2016 to 2020, Hangzhou Xinfu’s net profit accounted for 61%, 82%, 76%, 74% and 56% respectively, and remained above 50%; At the same time, it can also be seen from the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter that the price trend of calcium pantothenate has a strong corresponding relationship with the company’s performance. The historical peak price of calcium pantothenate market reached 700-800 yuan / kg. The price rebound of calcium pantothenate is large this time. The price of the company’s products follows the market. It is expected that there is still some room for improvement in the future, which is expected to bring substantial growth in performance.
With multiple exclusive medical insurance varieties, key products are expected to achieve rapid and large-scale production
The company has 307 drug approval numbers in China, including 41 exclusive varieties (including exclusive dosage forms or specifications), 17 exclusive medical insurance products and 5 exclusive basic drug products. It is one of the China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) enterprises with a large number of exclusive medical insurance or basic drug products, Specialized product lines with rich differentiation advantages have been formed. In 2020, the sales revenue of five major products such as Xiaoer Jinqiao granules has reached 10.45% of the total revenue of the national pharmaceutical division. Under the environment of national policies supporting the development and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the coverage and sales volume of grade hospitals of traditional Chinese medicine products are expected to increase rapidly, which has become another core driving force for the improvement of the company’s performance.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.500, 5.655 and 6.690 billion, with a year-on-year increase of – 16.7%, 25.7% and 18.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.05, 12.18 and 16.82 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 58.1%, 200.5% and 38.1%, corresponding to 54 / 21 / 15 times of PE from 2021 to 2023. The company’s performance has high growth and the valuation is lower than the industry average, and it is given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk factors: the price of calcium pantothenate is lower than expected, the risk of exchange rate fluctuation, covid-19 epidemic and other uncertain risks.
