\u3000\u3000 China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. The expected net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is about 9.4 billion yuan to 10.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 3.3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of about 54% to 66%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is about 9.3 billion yuan to 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 55% to 67%.
Comments: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is RMB 900-16 million. Quarterly, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 was RMB 2.849/25.10/3.132 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 13129.45% / 163.57% / 40.22% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 15.71% / 14.43% / 22.41% respectively. In 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 912-1.6 billion, which is 46% - 69% lower than that in 20q4, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is expected to be deducted from RMB 912-1.612 billion. Compared with 21q3, the company's actual net operating profit excluding Hainan Income Tax Offset and capital airport supplementary agreement offset in the third quarter was 1.252 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 43.95%, and the actual net operating interest rate was 8.96%. It can be seen that the company continued to be affected by the repeated epidemic in the fourth quarter. In the follow-up, we believe that the discount in Hainan is expected to be reduced and the profit margin is expected to be significantly improved month on month. Haikou Customs released duty-free sales data for 21 years, and 21q4 duty-free consumption recovered steadily. Recently, Haikou Customs released the tax-free sales for 21 years. In 2021, Haikou customs supervised the duty-free shopping on Hainan outlying islands, with a total amount of 49.5 billion yuan, 6.72 million people, 70.45 million pieces and a per capita shopping amount of 7368 yuan, an increase of 80%, 49.8%, 107% and 20.2% respectively compared with the previous year. In the fourth quarter alone, the duty-free sales volume of Hainan according to the customs standard was 14 billion yuan, and the number of shoppers was 1.59 million. In 21q4, the average daily shopping amount in a single quarter was 151.69 million yuan, the average daily shopping trips were 17277, and the customer unit price was 8780 yuan. The average daily shopping amount of duty-free consumption in the fourth quarter has returned to the level before Q3. Under the influence of the epidemic, the resilience is not reduced and tends to recover.
The impact of the epidemic on Tourism in Hainan has gradually decreased. At the 2022 Hainan tourism, culture, radio, television and sports work conference held on January 13, the data showed that the province received 81.043 million foreign tourists in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.5% and restored to 97.5% in 2019; The total tourism revenue was 138.434 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.6%, an increase of 30.9% over 2019. By quarter, the number of passengers received in 21q1-q4 Hainan was 22.913 million, 20.2978 million, 14.3819 million and 23.4145 million respectively. Since the third quarter, the epidemic has continued to repeat, while the reception of tourists in Hainan has recovered in the fourth quarter. Looking back, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on Tourism in Hainan is expected to continue to weaken.
Investment suggestion: at present, the impact of the epidemic on duty-free shops in Hainan is gradually alleviated. With the narrowing of discounts in duty-free shops in Hainan, looking forward to 2022, we believe that the company's subsequent profits are expected to be significantly improved. On the one hand, the company will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and increase the pace of international expansion. On the other hand, it will accelerate the expansion of Sanya duty-free city and the construction of Haikou international duty-free city. In the future, it will further consolidate its leading position in global duty-free, and its supply chain and location advantages are expected to be further highlighted. Due to the impact of epidemic factors, we adjusted the company's performance in 21-22 years to 10 / 12 billion yuan (the previous value was 11 / 15 billion yuan), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 39x / 33x respectively.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic risk, the company's operation is less than expected, and the risk of policy change
