\u3000\u3000 Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) (600496)
Key investment points
The newly signed contract value increased steadily by 13% throughout the year, and the annual steel structure sales increased by 34% year-on-year
In terms of new contracts: in 2021, the company's cumulative contract amount of new orders was 16.949 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.29%. In terms of time periods, the newly signed orders of 21h1 / H2 were 8.245/8.704 billion yuan respectively, and the newly signed orders in the second half of the year increased steadily by 5.57% month on month, of which the contract amount of newly signed orders of 21q3 / Q4 was 4.759/3.94 billion yuan respectively, and the newly signed orders of Q4 decreased by 17.21% month on month (due to the adjustment of order confirmation criteria from "new undertaking" to "new signing", the data of Q1 and Q2 in the previous disclosure were not comparable); In terms of sales volume, the company achieved 1.016 million tons of steel structure sales throughout the year, with a year-on-year increase of 34%, highlighting the high prospect of the company's business development.
New contracts for public buildings / industrial buildings increased by 34% / 16%, and large orders for public buildings and high turnover rate for industrial buildings increased by business types: 1) the annual newly signed contract amount of public buildings increased by 33.6%, and orders above RMB 100 million increased by 61% year-on-year. In 2021, the newly signed public building contracts mainly invested by the government totaled 64.39 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.57%, including 22 orders of more than 100 million yuan, with a total amount of 4.389 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%; 2) The newly signed contract amount of industrial construction increased by 15.8%, and the return rate of old customers was as high as 58%. In 2021, the company signed new industrial construction projects of RMB 7.249 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.80%. The company's industrial enterprise customers are mainly distributed in emerging industries such as 5g, new energy vehicles, big data center and industrial Internet, and most of them continue to cooperate with old customers. In the number of new orders signed for industrial construction in 2021, 80% came from the above emerging strategic industries and 58% from old customers.
We believe that the company's public buildings increased by 34% year-on-year, which just verifies that under the "double carbon" goal put forward in the series of studies on embracing "new energy +" 5: enabling, energy saving, production capacity and three-level assistance to new energy + in the construction engineering industry (hereinafter referred to as "building new energy +"), with lower carbon emission intensity in the whole life cycle, Steel structure is expected to usher in the judgment of "accelerated development".
EPC business has developed vigorously, with 5 franchised orders outside the province expanded / business volume of 200 million yuan and 100% increase at the same time. EPC business: according to the publicly disclosed information, the company's EPC company takes Shanghai as its business base. At present, it has 8 branches in Shenzhen, southwest, Shandong, northwest, Anhui, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with design services, professional coordination It has the ability to implement and deliver the whole EPC industry chain such as construction services and digital management, and has 34 EPC project implementation teams and the first self-developed EPC project life cycle management platform in the construction industry; In terms of franchise business: in 2021, the company's franchise business realized a business volume of 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%, and newly expanded to five regions, including Shangrao in Jiangxi, Bengbu in Anhui, Yangzhou in Jiangsu, Dengzhou in Henan and Xuancheng in Anhui. At present, the company has carried out technical franchise business cooperation in six regions such as northeast, East and North China, which is expected to promote the layout and promotion of the company's steel structure construction business throughout the country.
The roof photovoltaic policy is overweight, and the company's distributed photovoltaic business has accumulated profound experience and can grow in the future
Policy frequency: on October 24, 2021, the State Council issued the action plan for carbon peaking before 2030, which clearly requires that "by 2025, the roof photovoltaic coverage of new public institution buildings and new plants will strive to reach 50%"; On January 4, 2022, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other five ministries and commissions issued the action plan for innovation and development of intelligent photovoltaic industry (2021-2025), comprehensively promote the intelligent photovoltaic system on residential roofs, encourage new government investment in public welfare buildings and promote Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) roof system.
Large industry space: in the report of building new energy + issued on November 30, 2001, we estimated that the stock building bapv market is about 960 billion yuan, and the market space of new building BIPV is expected to exceed 83 billion yuan / year. The company has many advantages: 1) sufficient experience in distributed photovoltaic (including BIPV): the company laid out the distributed photovoltaic business as early as 2013 and currently holds 45% equity of Zhejiang Jinggong Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhejiang Jinggong energy technology"), an associate specializing in distributed roof photovoltaic business. 21h1, Zhejiang Seiko energy technology realized a net profit of 26.1 million yuan; 2) Strong technical advantages: the company has mature building structure technology and enclosure system products, and has successively undertaken and completed many public buildings and industrial buildings BIPV projects such as Guangzhou south railway station, Jingjiang sports center and various industrial plants; 3) Wide roof resources: the company's steel structure business has high customer stickiness, strong industry growth, and rich roof resource reserves. According to the publicly disclosed information, in 2020, the revenue of the company's industrial buildings and public buildings will be 5.66 billion yuan and 1.73 billion yuan respectively, which can be equivalent to tens of millions of square meters of construction area.
Profit forecast and valuation
Considering the impact of newly signed orders and raw material price fluctuations on the gross profit margin, on the basis of fully predicting the business data, we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of RMB 13.879 billion, 17.433 billion and 21.776 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 20.86%, 25.60% and 24.91%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 698 million, 871 million and 1094 million, with a year-on-year increase of 7.64%, 24.87% and 25.60%, The corresponding EPS is 0.35, 0.43 and 0.54 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 13.4, 10.7 and 8.5 times. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration rate of steel structure fabricated buildings is lower than expected; The growth rate of fixed asset investment was lower than expected, and the promotion of BIPV in China was lower than expected.
