\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) (600036)
Matters:
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 331.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 119.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.20%. In 2021, the company roe16.0% 94%, up 1.21 PCT year-on-year.
Ping An View:
Excellent performance and steady revenue growth. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in 2021, the revenue increased by 14.03% year-on-year, slightly higher than that in the previous three quarters (13.54% in 21q1-3), mainly driven by the acceleration of net interest income growth. The company achieved a year-on-year increase of 10.21% (vs8.74%, 21q1-3). We judged that the increase of net interest income growth was driven by scale growth and interest margin repair. In terms of non interest income, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 20.73% (vs21.57%, 21q1-3), still maintaining a rapid growth. In 2021, the company achieved a year-on-year increase of 23.20% in net profit, basically in line with our expectations, and the profit growth rate increased steadily (vs22.21%, 21q1-3).
The scale expansion is accelerated, and the debt side advantage is stable. The company's total assets and loans increased by 10.9% / 10.8% year-on-year in 21 years, and the growth rate increased by 1.57% / 0.87% respectively compared with the end of 21q3. On the liability side, the annual deposit increment of the company reached 718.7 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 12.77% at the end of the year, an increase of 3.36 PCT compared with the end of 21q3. Over the past 21 years, under the background of the slowdown of deposit growth in the whole industry and the marginal rise of deposit pressure, China Merchants Bank has been able to maintain the expansion rate of deposits at a high level, showing that the advantage of the company's liability side is still stable.
The non-performing rate remained low and the asset quality was stable and solid. The company's non-performing rate at the end of 21 was 0.91%, down 2bp month on month compared with the end of 21q3. It has maintained improvement for four consecutive quarters since 21 years, and has always been at a low level among comparable peers in absolute level. As for the risk of real estate loans concerned by the market, according to the quarterly data of March 21, affected by the credit risk exposure of some real estate enterprises, the non-performing rate of CMB's public real estate loans was 1.29%, an increase of 1.06pct over the end of 20, but still lower than the overall non-performing rate of 18bp in the same period, and the customers were highly concentrated in the strategic customer group. As of the end of 21q3, Among the public real estate loans, the balance of customers with high credit rating accounts for 86.74%, and the balance of real estate strategic customers of the head office and branches accounts for 64.78%. The overall structure is relatively good. We judge that the impact on asset quality in the future is controllable. At the end of the year 21, the provision coverage rate of the company was 441%, decreased by 1.8pct, 4.03% and 10bp compared with the end of 21q3. On the whole, the provision coverage level remained abundant and continued to be in the leading position in the industry
Investment suggestion: the profitability remains excellent, and we are optimistic about the continuation of the leading premium. From the performance express of 21 years, the revenue and profit of CMB have achieved stable growth, and the growth rate has increased to varying degrees compared with the third quarterly report. In the past few years, with the steady progress of large retail and light strategy, the profitability of the company has always been at the leading level in the industry. The 3.0 business model proposed by the company in the past 21 years integrates the financial technology, open integration, light culture mainly explored by China Merchants Bank in the past three years with the business model of building a large wealth management value cycle chain. In the future, the company's advantages in retail and wealth management business are expected to be continuously strengthened. In combination with the company's 21-year performance express, we maintain the company's performance forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company's EPS in 2022 / 2023 will be 5.66/6.69 yuan respectively, and the corresponding profit growth rate will be 18.1% / 18.1% respectively. At present, CMB's share price corresponds to 1.5x/1.3x Pb in 2022 / 2023 respectively. Under the guarantee of excellent profitability and asset quality, we are still firmly optimistic about the investment value of the company and maintain the "strongly recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downturn leads to higher than expected pressure on industry asset quality; 2) The downward interest rate led to a narrower than expected industry interest margin; 3) The escalation of Sino US friction leads to the rise of external risks
