\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) (002371)
Event overview
The company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021, and it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 8478.4602 million yuan – 1090.08775 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 40% – 80%; The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is expected to be 939628300 yuan – 1208093500 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 75% – 125%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company after deducting non recurring profits and losses is 689589600 yuan – 886615200 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 250% – 350%. The basic earnings per share is expected to be 1.8730 yuan / share -2.4082 yuan / share.
Analysis and judgment:
The annual performance doubled and the industry continued to enjoy a high outlook
According to the median estimate of the announcement, the company’s annual revenue was 9.689 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 1.075 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100%. In 2021, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the strong demand of downstream customers of the company’s main business and the continuous growth of semiconductor equipment and electronic components business. Quarterly, Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 3.516 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 58.38% and a month on month increase of 37.08%. Q4 realized a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 417 million yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year increase of 98.57% and a month on month increase of 19.83%. According to semi data, the total sales of global semiconductor manufacturing equipment will exceed US $100 billion for the first time in 2021, reaching US $103 billion, an increase of 44.7% over US $71 billion in 2020, and is expected to increase to US $114 billion next year, a year-on-year increase of 11%. It is expected that the high outlook of the semiconductor equipment market will remain.
Constant growth accelerated capacity expansion and continued to increase investment in R & D
As the main force in the localization of semiconductor equipment, the company’s semiconductor equipment includes etching machine, PVD, CVD, ALD, oxidation / diffusion furnace, annealing furnace, cleaning machine, etc., and its products have obtained batch orders from industry leading customers. On November 2, the company announced that it had completed the non-public offering of shares in 2021, with an issue price of 304 yuan / share and a total fund-raising of nearly 8.5 billion yuan, including 1.5 billion yuan for the second phase of large fund, 734 million yuan for UBS and 250 million yuan for Beijing integrated circuit advanced manufacturing and high-end equipment equity investment fund center. It is mainly used for the company’s semiconductor equipment R & D projects, industrialization expansion projects and precision components expansion projects. It is expected to have a production capacity of 500 sets of integrated circuit equipment, 500 sets of emerging semiconductor equipment, 300 sets of LED equipment and 700 sets of photovoltaic equipment. We believe that the company has a multi product line layout and keeps leading technology in many fields, and there is a huge market space for localization in the future. The company has accelerated the research and development of advanced process equipment and expanded the etching technology horizontally to meet the needs of customers. At present, it has 28nm technology and is developing 14-5nm process products. The company’s R & D expenses in the first three quarters were 869 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.19%, accounting for 14.07% of its operating revenue.
Investment advice
Considering that the company’s products are entering a period of accelerated development, we raised the company’s revenue forecast of RMB 8.816 billion, RMB 11.980 billion and RMB 16.1 billion from 2021 to 2023 to RMB 9.316 billion, RMB 12.880 billion and RMB 16.8 billion, and raised the EPS 1.2 billion from 2021 to 2023 The forecasts of 84 yuan, 2.40 yuan and 3.16 yuan reach 1.89 yuan, 2.54 yuan and 3.21 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 288.71 yuan / share on January 16, 2022, and the PE is 152.9/113.5/90 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The R & D of new products and technologies is lower than expected, the prosperity of the semiconductor industry is lower than expected, and the development progress of China’s market is lower than expected.
