\u3000\u3000 Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) (300049)
Event: in 2021, the company realized a profit of 105-121 million yuan (reducing equity incentive expenses and non recurring profits and losses), with a year-on-year increase of 69.60% - 95.45%; After deducting equity incentive expenses and non recurring profits and losses, the net profit was 85-100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.71% - 46.72%; The net profit after deducting non recurring profit and loss (only reducing equity incentive expenses) is RMB 100-116 million, which is the most comparable operating performance, with a year-on-year increase of 47.06% - 70.59%, compound performance expectation.
Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is one of the most potential consumer products of traditional Chinese medicine
The second of the four logics we are writing about traditional Chinese medicine investment is to find brand traditional Chinese medicine that has the ability to raise prices and is not sensitive to medical insurance, that is, high cost-effective brand OTC and OTC like traditional Chinese medicine varieties, and the mean regression of undervalued stocks, Inner Mongolia Furui Medical Science Co.Ltd(300049) belongs to this category. The company has the first choice for the treatment of liver fibrosis, Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet and the first professional shell fat capsule for the treatment of fatty liver. Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is a variety of medical insurance, but due to the high price of upstream raw materials such as natural Cordyceps, the payment price of medical insurance is low, which limits the profitability of the product. In the past two years, the company has actively expanded the out of hospital market, more than doubled the price of a single piece to 3.3 yuan / piece, and increased the treatment cost of a course of treatment for half a year to 7000 yuan, returning to the reasonable value of the product. At present, the sales of Internet e-commerce and drugstore platforms account for about 40%, and the follow-up proportion will continue to rise rapidly. At the same time, we will explore the private domain traffic market, and the products have opened a new round of growth space.
Liver fibrosis is caused by two types of chronic liver injury, liver damage and cholestasis, such as hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infection, chronic alcohol abuse, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cholestasis and autoimmune hepatitis. The most common are viral infection and excessive drinking. Under severe and persistent pathological stimulation, hepatic fibrosis can develop into more severe cirrhosis. If the hepatic acini are replaced by nodules, it will further deteriorate into hepatocellular carcinoma. There are more than 7 million people with liver fibrosis. There is no chemical treatment method for the time being. Only a few traditional Chinese medicine treatments such as Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet and Anluo Huaxian pill belong to the blue ocean field with large market and less competition. Compound Biejia Ruangan Tablet is the first brand. If the overall treatment penetration rate reaches 20% and Ruangan Tablet accounts for 30%, the market still has a space of 3 billion yuan, ten times the growth space. Previously, this factor has been eliminated because price and other factors could not be effectively promoted.
Children's chain mode gradually entered the harvest period.
Through cooperation with West China Hospital and using West China's brand and personnel training system, cooperate to establish pediatric clinics and transform to medical services. West China excellence children's center currently has three stores, which have successively entered the harvest period. The follow-up model is expected to be replicated in other cities, bringing another growth engine to the company.
Profit forecast
According to the company's equity incentive target and achievable path, the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be RMB 100 / 153 / 252 million, with a year-on-year increase of 61.66% / 52.96% / 64.59%, corresponding to PE of 39 / 25 / 15 times respectively. The average PE valuation of the traditional Chinese medicine industry is expected to be 33 times in 22 years, giving the company 45 times PE in 22 years, and the target price is RMB 25.22.
Risk tips: the promotion progress of Ruangan Tablet is less than expected, and the impact of the epidemic on the economy and promotion
