\u3000\u3000 Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030)
Event: the performance express was disclosed on Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) January 12, 2022. According to preliminary accounting, the company’s operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 40.8% and 54.2% year-on-year to 76.57 billion yuan and 22.98 billion yuan respectively. On January 13, the company announced the details of the share allotment plan. It is proposed to raise 28 billion yuan by placing 1.5 shares per 10 shares at the same time, The equity registration date is January 18 and January 25 respectively.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) excellent performance express data in 21 years, and the annual roe increased by 3.58pct to 12.01%. According to the express, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years increased significantly by 54.2% year-on-year to 22.98 billion yuan, exceeding the market expectation of 1.5-2 billion yuan, corresponding to the year-on-year increase of 138% to 5.33 billion yuan in the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4. We believe that the exceeding expectation of the company’s annual net profit is mainly due to the sharp decrease of 4.26pct to 57.8% from 62.05% in 20 years, The decline of cost rate may be due to the sharp decline or reversal of credit impairment provision. The credit impairment provision in the first three quarters of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 20 and 21 years was 6.58 billion yuan and 1.49 billion yuan respectively;
The details of the share allotment scheme are implemented. According to the company’s share allotment instructions on January 13, it is planned to issue 1.597 billion A-Shares and 342 million H shares to all shareholders of A-Shares and H shares in the scheme of placing 1.5 shares per 10 shares. The allotment prices of A-Shares and H shares are 14.3 yuan / share and HK $17.67/share respectively, which are 54.74% and 84.95% of the closing prices of A-Shares and H shares of the company on the announcement date of share allotment (January 13), The A-share allotment is a consignment mechanism, which requires that the number of shares subscribed by the original A-share shareholders reaches 70% of the number of shares to be allotted, and the H-share allotment is an underwriting mode. The equity registration dates of A-Shares and H shares are January 18 and January 25 respectively.
The pressure of liquidity indicators is more urgent than that of business. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) issued 5 billion yuan, 6 billion yuan and 1.5 billion yuan of perpetual subordinated bonds totaling 12.5 billion yuan on July 27, August 10 and August 30, 21 respectively, indicating the urgency of the company’s capital demand; The landing of this allotment will ease the pressure on the company. We believe that the shortage of some regulatory indicators is a more urgent demand for Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) than the use of business capital: the mid-2021 report shows that by the end of June 21, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the risk coverage, liquidity coverage and net stable capital ratio of the parent company were 143.3%, 125.6% and 121.7% respectively, which is close to the early warning standard;
The raised funds are mainly invested in capital intermediaries. According to the statement of allotment, the capital investment of this allotment includes developing capital intermediary business of 19 billion yuan, increasing investment in subsidiaries of 5 billion yuan, increasing information system construction of 5 billion yuan and supplementing other working capital of 1 billion yuan, totaling about 28 billion yuan. We expect that the investment of capital intermediaries mainly includes two financing and derivatives businesses, among which derivatives mainly include domestic income swap, cross-border income swap, on-site derivatives market making (options, commodities and ETF) and OTC derivatives trading. The average daily business scale of the first three in the first half of 2020 is 20.6 billion yuan, 26.3 billion yuan and 3.4 billion yuan respectively. Referring to CICC’s annual report, at the end of 2020, CICC’s equity position for OTC derivatives hedging increased by 52% year-on-year to RMB 94.7 billion, while the scale of equity trading financial assets reported in Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) 21 with a larger overall business volume was RMB 148.9 billion, so there is indeed a need for re expansion. We expect that the profit contributed by CITIC equity derivatives to the company will be more than 3 billion yuan in 21 years;
Investment suggestion: as a securities firm with the most outstanding comprehensive strength, the company has achieved excellent revenue performance in 2021. We expect that its net profit scale will steadily rank first in the industry, and its net profit growth will also rank among the top ten securities firms. The share allotment plan announced at the beginning of 21 suppressed the performance of the stock price to a certain extent. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to increase by 21.7% and 21.5% to 27.97 billion yuan and 33.98 billion yuan respectively from 22 to 23 years, and the net assets attributable to the parent company to increase by 23.2% and 9.1% to 257.6 billion yuan and 281 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the P / E ratio and P / B ratio of 22 years, which are 13.3 times and 1.44 times respectively, maintaining the “buy in” rating;
Risk tip: the reform of the capital market is slower than expected, the equity market has fallen sharply, the progress of investment banking is less than expected, the company’s derivatives risk exposure is too large, and the development of the company’s wealth management is less than expected;
