\u3000\u3000 Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011)
Events. The company announced the completion of electricity sales in 2021. In 2021, the company’s operating power plants in China completed 430.165 billion kwh of electricity sales according to the consolidated statement, with a year-on-year increase of 13.23%; In 2021, the average on grid settlement price of the company’s operating power plants in China was 431.88 yuan / MWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.41%. In 2021, the proportion of market-oriented trading electricity of the company was 61.63%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the same period last year.
The improvement of both supply and demand led to the year-on-year increase of the company’s power sales. The main reasons for the increase of power consumption of the company are: 1) strong demand side. In 2021, the power consumption of the whole society remained at a high level, driving the power generation side to rise sharply year-on-year. Among them, the power generation of the company’s power plants in Chongqing, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangsu, Gansu and Hubei increased more year-on-year. 2) The hydropower at the supply end is dry, which objectively gives some power generation space to thermal power. Affected by the lower than expected hydropower output, the thermal power generation with large installed capacity of the company maintained a high-speed growth. At the same time, during the peak winter, the company’s thermal power load operates at a high level, which further promotes the growth of power generation. 3) The company continued to promote green and low-carbon transformation, and new energy power generation increased rapidly year-on-year.
The cumulative installed capacity of Fengguang will exceed 13GW in 2021, and the CAGR will remain above 42% from 2022 to 2025. According to the estimation of new units put into operation in the single quarter of 2021 disclosed by the company, the company will add 2gw of thermal power, 2.4gw of wind power, 0.8gw of photovoltaic power and 0.03gw of biomass in 2021. By the end of 2021, the company’s total installed capacity of scenery will be 13.61gw. The company previously disclosed that the installed capacity of scenery will reach 55gw in 2025. Therefore, it is estimated that the CAGR of the company’s new energy will remain above 42% from 2022 to 2025, More than 10GW per year on average.
Investment advice. Assuming that in 2022, the company will add 5GW to 15.3gw of wind power and 6Gw to 9.31gw of photovoltaic power, and the installed capacity outside the scenery will remain unchanged, it is expected that the company will achieve revenue of 189.933/215.654/225.178 billion yuan in 2021 / 2022 / 2023, net profit attributable to the parent company of -24.72/98.6/127.41 billion yuan, eps-0.16/0.63/0.81 yuan, and corresponding PE of -49.46/12.4/9.6 times respectively. Considering that the high coal price will be alleviated in 2022, the price of wind turbine will decline, the price of photovoltaic module will decline and the price of power market-oriented transaction will rise, and the company’s new energy planning is large and the growth rate is fast, and its future performance contribution mainly depends on new energy such as scenery, the company will be given 14-17 times PE in 2022, with a reasonable price range of 8.82-10.71 yuan, The first coverage gives the company a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: coal price rise risk, power consumption is less than expected, and market-oriented transaction price risk.
