\u3000\u3000 Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) (002092)
On January 16, the company issued a suspension announcement for planning a major asset restructuring, planned to issue shares and convertible corporate bonds to purchase some or all of the shares (no less than 29.9%) of MEC chemical held by shareholders such as Zhongtai group, and issued shares to qualified specific investors to raise matching funds.
MEC chemical is mainly engaged in BDO business, which will significantly increase the company's performance after the successful reorganization. MEC chemical is mainly engaged in BDO business, with a BDO capacity of 270000 tons / year. The actual output will reach 283000 tons in 2021, ranking the first in China in terms of capacity and output. At present, the company holds 24.11% of the shares of MEC chemical. If the reorganization is successful, the equity proportion of the company will reach 54.01% based on the minimum acquisition proportion of 29.9%. At that time, Merck chemical will become a holding subsidiary from a participating subsidiary, which will significantly increase the company's performance after consolidation.
At present, the company's main products are stabilizing and rebounding slightly. Since the beginning of the year, PVC has increased from 8500 yuan / ton to 8590 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 1.1%; It is expected that under the support of calcium carbide cost, PVC will maintain a high price level, and PVC enterprises with self-produced calcium carbide will continue to maintain high profitability. The price of caustic soda increased from 2950 yuan / ton to 3050 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.4%. It is expected that the price of caustic soda will tend to be stable and upward; The price of viscose staple fiber increased from 12070 yuan / ton to 12850 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.5%. In the context of supply-demand mismatch, viscose staple fiber industry is expected to usher in a cyclical recovery, and the rising trend of prosperity may continue. BDO decreased from 30650 yuan / ton to 26750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 12.7%, and the price difference of calcium carbide method narrowed by 18.0%. It is expected to remain high under the background of tight supply and demand.
The company continues its industrial strategic layout, which is expected to drive the company's sustainable growth. The company's 750000 T / a calcium carbide capacity under construction is expected to be put into operation in August 2022. MEC chemical will increase BDO capacity by 100000 t / A in 2022; Meanwhile, the capacity of PBAT under construction is 60000t / A, which can effectively extend the industrial chain after completion. In addition, the 120000 T / a PBAT project of Xinjiang Huatai heavy chemical industry, the holding subsidiary of the company, was approved on January 4, 2022. We believe that the company has great development potential and growth space in calcium carbide, BDO and PBAT industrial chains, and will give full play to the advantages of upstream and downstream integration and cost scale, which is expected to drive the continuous growth of the company's performance.
Without considering major asset restructuring, it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.69 billion yuan, 39.87 billion yuan and 42.19 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.0 billion yuan, 4.08 billion yuan and 4.55 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 2642.8%, 1.9% and 11.5%; EPS is 1.55, 1.58 and 1.77 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 6.14, 6.02 and 5.40 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating. If the reorganization is successful, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to be RMB 4.0 billion, RMB 4.75 billion and RMB 5.41 billion respectively according to the minimum acquisition proportion of 29.9%.
The risk indicates the risk that the downstream demand is less than expected, the risk of sharp rise in the price of dissolved pulp, the risk of sharp decline in the price of main products, and the risk that the progress of major asset restructuring is less than expected.
