Sara menker, CEO of gro intelligence, an agricultural analysis company, said at a special meeting of the United Nations Security Council recently that there are only 10 weeks of wheat supply left in the world.
She also pointed out that the Russian Ukrainian war was not the cause of the food security crisis, “but poured some oil on a long-term burning fire”.
She said that droughts around the world are reducing wheat resources, and the global food supply is also deeply affected by climate change and fertilizer shortage.
Menker added that according to the estimates of official institutions around the world, the current global wheat inventory is only 33% of the annual consumption, while the model created by gro intelligence shows that this figure may actually be only nearly 20%, which has not been seen since 2007 and 2008.
“Importantly, the lowest level of grain inventory in the world’s history is emerging, and the access to fertilizer is still greatly limited… The drought in the world’s wheat growing areas is the worst in more than 20 years, and similar inventory problems also apply to corn and other grains.”
Russia Ukraine influence
According to FAO, 20% of Ukraine’s cultivated land may not be harvested or sown due to the conflict. Foreign media reported on May 20 that Ukraine has sown 11.84 million hectares of crops, accounting for 82.2% of the plan this spring.
The Ministry of policy and food of Ukraine said on Friday: “the sowing work in Ukraine is still continuing, and the sowing area of spring wheat has reached 98% of the plan.”
However, for the sake of food security, Ukraine will reduce the sowing of highly marginal crops ( Zhejiang Sunflower Great Health Limited Liability Company(300111) and corn) this year and increase the sowing area of more important crops (peas, barley and oats).
Shurma, deputy director of the office of the president of Ukraine, said: “Ukraine’s goal is to harvest at least 70% of its production before 2022.”
At the same time, there was another debate between Ukraine and Russia over the opening of key Black Sea ports. Originally, these ports were used for a large number of grain exports from Ukraine, but at present, the Russian sea has blocked most of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
According to viktoriia mykhalchuk, a Ukrainian expert from FAO, Ukraine’s export volume is only 15% – 20% of the usual. In fact, Ukraine basically has no viable alternative except the Black Sea ports.
Andrei rudenko, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, responded, “first of all, this is caused by the sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia to intervene in normal free trade, including wheat and fertilizer commodities.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that if its sanctions were reviewed, it would consider opening Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to reduce the pressure on global food supply.
Russia itself, although it has maintained grain exports in the past few months, increased wheat exports from March to April. However, the Russian government has set export quotas for chemical fertilizers and extended the export quota system for mineral fertilizers from June 1 to the end of this year last week.
This has also resulted in a lack of fertilizer supply for many farmers in the country. At the same time, more countries have joined protective trade policies. Taking India as an example, it has imposed a temporary ban on wheat exports, further exacerbating the global food crisis.
climate threat
Earlier this month, the United Nations released a new report “drought figures in 2022”, which pointed out that the number and duration of droughts have increased by 29% since 2000, while in 2022, more than 2.3 billion people face water pressure.
By 2050, drought may affect more than three quarters of the world’s population. At that time, 4.8-5.7 billion people will live in water deficient areas, compared with 3.6 billion at present. In 2050, as many as 216 million people may be forced to migrate, possibly due to water shortage, declining crop productivity, rising sea levels and so on.
At present, the drought areas reported globally have spread from France to the Middle East and then to the Midwest of the United States. The drought, which has not been seen for at least 20 years, further exacerbates the risk of agricultural production.
The soil moisture of wheat growing land in the world is at the lowest point since 2010.
France’s durum wheat and soft wheat are expected to be harvested in July and August. France has been a key support for drought stricken countries in the Middle East and North Africa after Ukraine’s wheat exports were blocked.
However, according to the data of gro intelligence, the soil moisture in the wheat producing areas of France is at the lowest level in at least 12 years. Deswarte, an arvalis expert at the Crop Research Institute, said that about one-third of the crop growth potential has been lost in the surface to middle soil areas, and the loss of some plots has reached 50%.
The climate in the southern plain, the main planting area of hard red winter wheat in the United States, remains hot and dry, which will lead to a double-digit percentage decline in yield.
In addition, the hard red spring wheat in the northern United States is facing a delay in spring sowing due to excessive rainfall, and its largest spring wheat producing state, North Dakota, is experiencing the latest planting season since 2011.
Gro’s drought index also shows that in other regions, Iran, the largest wheat producer in the Middle East, is expected to decline by 20% this year; Morocco, one of Africa’s largest wheat producers, is expected to see a 35% decline in wheat production.
