Plate market this week:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.02%, the gem index rose 2.51%, the CSI 300 rose 2.23%, the CITIC basic chemical index rose 4.27%, and the Shenwan chemical index rose 4.27%.
Rise and fall of various sub sectors of chemical industry: this week, the top five sub sectors of chemical industry were soda ash (11.8%), rubber additives (10.55%), potassium fertilizer (7.56%), other chemical raw materials (6.92%) and membrane materials (6.16%); The top five sub industries in the chemical sector were food and feed additives (0%), printing and dyeing chemicals (0.98%), titanium dioxide (1.04%), pesticides (1.11%) and other plastic products (1.35%).
Main trends of the industry this week:
The EU’s huge energy plan is expected to boost the demand for photovoltaic materials. On May 18, 2022, the European Commission disclosed a new energy plan, repowereu, which plans to increase investment by 210 billion euros between now and 2027 to get rid of dependence on fossil fuels in Russia, of which 56 billion euros will be used to improve energy efficiency and 86 billion euros will be used to develop renewable energy. At the same time, the European Commission proposes that 45% of the energy in the EU will come from renewable energy by 2030. It is planned to double the existing photovoltaic installed capacity by 2025 and reach 600gw by 2030. The installation of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic panels in new public buildings, commercial buildings and residential buildings will become a legal obligation to promote step by step. It is expected that the growth of EU photovoltaic installed capacity will boost the demand for photovoltaic modules in China, and industrial silicon, soda ash, EVA and other upstream chemical materials are expected to benefit.
Investment suggestions:
The supply and demand of phosphate fertilizer is tight, the cost supports the price upward, and the high price of phosphate fertilizer at home and abroad continues to be poor. China’s prosperity is expected to remain upward. Focus on: Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) continue to promote capacity expansion. The British base took the lead in putting into operation, the construction of Jiangmen base was started, and the national strategic layout was gradually improved. The company continued to promote new product functional materials, create the second growth curve, and continue to consolidate its leading position in the industry, focusing on: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . Under the background of steady growth, China’s soda ash demand is strong, the soda ash inventory of downstream glass plants is low, and the growth of photovoltaic glass is strong. China’s leader in natural alkali process Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , plans to hold Yingen mining, and the long-term growth of production capacity is guaranteed, which is expected to reshape the supply and demand pattern. Focus on Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) Hershey, the Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) subsidiary, continues to release the production capacity of plant capsules, and its scale advantage is constantly strengthened. It is expected to win the first brand in Asia. At the same time, with the technical advantages of mitega, it will accelerate the commercialization of food grade cellulose ether in the field of artificial meat, which is expected to become the second growth point of the company. The key focus is: Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) . After years of competition and expansion, the leaders in various subdivided fields of China chemical industry have created a profit moat with cost advantages, and the global market share has been increasing. At present, the valuation is at a low level, focusing on: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) . Century old tires, trillion market, covid-19 epidemic accelerated, industry pattern reshuffle, China’s tire leader continued to explore the market in multiple directions, market share continued to increase, and is expected to maintain rapid growth. Key attention: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) . In the context of “double carbon”, China continues to improve the national coal trading market and promote the development of new coal chemical industry at the cost side. China’s leading coal to olefin enterprise Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , relying on the cost advantage to ensure profitability, focuses on: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . The demand for glyphosate is restored, the upstream phosphating industry is high, and the cost supports the price of glyphosate to return to the upward channel. Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) is the leader in China, with the cost and scale leading in the world, and the performance is expected to continue to grow. Focus on: Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Large fluctuations in oil prices; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
