Key investment points:
Electricity prices of high energy consuming enterprises in Zhejiang and Jiangsu increased. Zhejiang Province plans to increase the electricity price of 634 high energy consuming enterprises by 1.72 gross / kWh, which will be implemented from July 1, 2022; Jiangsu Province will increase the electricity price of enterprises whose energy consumption exceeds the limit and use obsolete equipment by 1-5 gross / kWh, which will be implemented from May 1, 2022.
Raise the price of high energy consumption electricity to effectively dredge the cost of natural gas power generation and demand side response. At present, natural gas power generation in Zhejiang province continues to implement the two-part electricity price, and the electricity price is linked with gas and electricity. Since 2022, the extreme time of natural gas electricity price has reached 2 yuan / kWh. According to the notice of Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission, the cost of natural gas power generation and demand side response in Zhejiang Province is expected to increase by about 7.425 billion yuan in 2022, of which the cost of natural gas power generation will increase by 6.057 billion yuan. In the second half of the year, users of high energy consuming enterprises will bear 40% of the capital demand, and the electricity price will be increased by 1.72 gross / kWh. Since 2022, Inner Mongolia and Yunnan Province have successively cancelled the preferential tariff for high energy consuming enterprises, while Jiangsu Province and Zhejiang Province have issued relevant regulations to increase the tariff of high energy consuming enterprises by 1-5 gross / degree. In the case of market-oriented electricity price, we judge that the provinces may carry out price regulation of high energy consuming enterprises by assessing green power consumption and energy efficiency.
The EU carbon tariff was expanded to include indirect carbon emissions from electricity. On the afternoon of May 17, EU time, the European Parliament passed the plan on the establishment of carbon boundary adjustment mechanism (CBAM). Compared with the previous plan, this plan expands the scope of the industry, advances the formal implementation time by one year to 2025, and includes indirect carbon emissions (emissions from outsourced power and heat used by manufacturers).
The inclusion of indirect carbon emissions from electricity highlights the environmental protection value of green electricity, and the consumption demand of green electricity is expected to increase.
In terms of industry scope, compared with the original five industries of steel, aluminum, cement, chemical fertilizer and electric power, the new industries include organic chemicals, plastics, hydrogen and ammonia. In 2021, the trade volume of steel / aluminum / chemical fertilizer / organic chemicals and their products / plastics and their products exported by China to Europe accounted for 6.7% / 8.5% / 0.1% / 30.0% / 29.2% of the total trade volume exported to Europe.
In terms of the scope of carbon accounting, it is different from the European Commission scheme which only accounts for direct carbon emissions. This scheme includes the indirect carbon emissions generated by the outsourced power and heat used by manufacturers. The European carbon price is high. On May 18, the EU carbon price was 83.23 euros (about 590 yuan). For China's export-oriented enterprises, the use of thermal power production will undoubtedly significantly increase the production cost.
Take the steel and aluminum industries as an example. According to the world iron and Steel Association, in 2020, the average production of steel will be 1 ton, and the average emission of carbon dioxide will be 1.85 tons; According to China Nonferrous Metals News, the average carbon dioxide emission from the production of one ton of electrolytic aluminum in 2020 is 10.7 tons. Combined with the unit carbon price of about 590 yuan in the EU, the average carbon emission cost of producing a single ton of steel / electrolytic aluminum in 2020 is 1092 / 6313 yuan. The selection of green power production has become one of the best solutions for export enterprises to reduce costs. With the inclusion of new industries, China's green power consumption demand is expected to increase.
The premium of green power is further increased, and the volume and price rise together, helping to open up the growth space of green power operators. In terms of price, the green power premium has been expanded. According to Polaris power grid, the premium of the first batch of green power pilot transactions in September 2021 was 3-5 points / kWh, and the annual transaction premium in Jiangsu in 2022 has been expanded to 7.2 points / kwh; From January to April 2022, the green power premium of Guangxi's first green power transaction was 6.43 cents / kWh.
In terms of trading volume, the national green power trading volume is limited, mainly due to the limited scale of new energy participating in green power trading and the imperfect linkage mechanism between green power and carbon market. In terms of green power supply, China began to implement new energy parity on the Internet in 2021. At present, the green power trading requirement is to give priority to organizing "new energy without subsidy" to participate in the trading. The premium space for "new energy with subsidy" to participate in green power trading is limited, which reduces its enthusiasm to participate in the market. In terms of carbon market, the green electricity market is linked with the carbon emission right market. Users may deduct the total carbon emission by directly purchasing green electricity. For market players, this method is more convenient and easy to implement than CCER. With the continuous promotion of China's affordable Internet access and the improvement of the linkage mechanism between green power and carbon market, the trading volume of green power is expected to increase.
High energy consuming enterprises charge 1.5 times the agency price, so it is more economical to install distributed photovoltaic. During the next 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county can reach 50gw In May 2022, the agency power purchase price in Jiangxi, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other places increased by more than 20%. For industrial and commercial enterprises, especially for high energy consuming enterprises charged at 1.5 times the agency price, it is undoubtedly more economical to install distributed photovoltaic. Under the BIPV mode, the economy of enterprises can also be effectively guaranteed. According to the calculation of Longji new energy, the installation of 10000 square meters of ceiling products by high energy consuming enterprises can reduce the electricity expenditure by 34.45 million yuan in 25 years. With the promotion of the whole county, the distributed photovoltaic market will usher in rapid capacity expansion. According to the county's average installed capacity of 200MW, the average annual installed capacity during the 14th Five Year Plan period can reach 50gw.
Investment suggestion: in the industry, the price increase of high energy consuming enterprises combined with the expansion of EU carbon tariff will further highlight the environmental protection value of green power, and the consumption demand of green power is expected to increase. Maintain the industry "recommended rating". In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality targets of green power China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Cecep Wind-Power Corporation(601016) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , CGN new energy; The thermal power targets that are expected to improve profits include Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , Gd Power Development Co.Ltd(600795) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , China Resources Power, Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) , Datang International Power Generation Co.Ltd(601991) , and China power; Distributed photovoltaic field Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua smart energy, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Zhejiang Wanliyang Co.Ltd(002434) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn risk; Risk of policy change; Focus on the company's performance less than expected; Technological progress is less than expected; The installation progress is less than expected.
