Monkeypox cases have been reported in many places around the world, and relevant Chinese enterprises have successively indicated that they have relevant virus detection products. Affected by this, monkeypox virus prevention and control stocks led the rise at the opening on May 23, among which Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) many stocks opened significantly higher. Previously, Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) successively stated that the company has monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection reagent, which can accurately identify monkeypox virus.
Industry insiders said that under the epidemic situation, the public is more sensitive to the virus. Once there is a virus that may spread, they will pay great attention to whether it needs detection and treatment. In this case, some enterprises previously involved in relevant reagent kits and drug R & D have stated that the stock price will rise in the short term. But in the long run, the above business has limited performance contribution to these companies whose share prices are changing. After all, monkeypox virus is not a new virus. Historically, the transmissibility of monkeypox is not high, and its morbidity and mortality are relatively low. Vaccine products have been available overseas, which can effectively control the spread of the virus, so the public need not panic.
Chinese enterprise layout
Although monkeypox virus has not yet been introduced into China, many Chinese enterprises have begun to take action Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) successively announced through the official platform that the company has monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection reagent products, Guangdong Hybribio Biotech Co.Ltd(300639) also said on May 23 that the company has the laboratory detection ability of monkeypox virus, while Rendu biology said that the company has developed monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection reagent, but the reagent has not obtained the registration certificate outside China.
According to Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , the nucleic acid detection kit of monkeypox virus (PCR fluorescent probe method) has been reserved in Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) scientific research products. Monkeypox virus can be quickly identified by specifically detecting the nucleic acid fragment of monkeypox virus. The reagent has the characteristics of high sensitivity and simple operation. It is suitable for rapid diagnosis of related diseases caused by monkeypox virus infection. It is compatible with fluorescent PCR platform and Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) poct platform. It can be quickly applied to the established covid-19 nucleic acid detection platform.
Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) relevant person from the Securities Department told the Beijing Business Daily that the company has reserved monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit. At present, it is promoting overseas registration and will be sold after obtaining certification.
And Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) has received overseas orders. On May 23, Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) announced that the monkeypox virus nucleic acid assay kit (fluorescent PCR method) independently developed and produced by the company has obtained the EU CE certification, which can help the diagnosis and prevention and control of related diseases Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) revealed at the performance presentation that the company's monkeypox virus nucleic acid detection kit has recently received orders from overseas countries such as Portugal, Spain, the Czech Republic and the United Arab Emirates, as well as emergency reserve and scientific research orders from some Chinese customs and disease control.
For the product layout, the reporter of Beijing business daily contacted Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) side, but no reply has been received as of press time.
expert: not popular on a large scale
Monkeypox is an infection caused by monkeypox virus. Jin Dongyan, a professor and virologist at the school of biomedicine of the University of Hong Kong, said in an interview with the Beijing Business Daily that monkeypox virus was first found in monkeys and has never been widely prevalent in humans. The virus has not been highly adapted to humans, so there is no need to panic at present.
In fact, monkeypox virus is not a new virus. Virology expert Chang Rongshan told the Beijing Business Daily that monkeypox virus was found in 1958. Its morbidity and mortality are relatively low. It has not caused a global pandemic in more than 60 years, so the public need not panic. In fact, there is some speculation in the capital market, which is unnecessary.
According to Chang Rongshan, there are two strains of monkeypox virus, one is Congo strain and the other is West Africa strain. Among them, the reported mortality of monkeypox caused by Congo strain was 10.6%, and the case mortality of West African strain was 3.6%. Monkeypox virus is a double stranded DNA virus with envelope. Before the outbreak of this epidemic, the transmissibility of monkeypox was not high in history. This time, cases were mainly found in Western Europe. Generally speaking, the transmission of monkeypox virus between people is not common. Interpersonal transmission routes include close contact with respiratory secretions, skin damaged parts or contaminated items of infected persons. It usually takes a longer time to spread respiratory droplets face to face.
"Monkeypox virus is different from other viruses. Its symptoms are obvious. It has a fever for several days and a large area of rash in the back and other parts of the body. The incubation period from exposure to onset is usually 6-13 days, which may be as long as 21 days. The transmission power of this West African strain is weaker than that of the conventional West African strain. The basic regeneration number of monkeypox in the process of human to human transmission is far less than 1, which is unlikely to have a pandemic trend in the world." Chang Rongshan further said.
has limited impact on the performance of listed companies
Under the normalization of covid-19 pneumonia epidemic prevention and control, covid-19 detection business has become the main contribution source of the performance of many IVD (in vitro diagnosis) enterprises. However, due to the low possibility of large-scale epidemic of monkeypox virus, it is difficult for listed companies to replicate the performance growth myth brought by the previous covid-19 detection business.
Taking Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) as an example, the covid-19 epidemic in 2020 caused Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) with covid-19 nucleic acid detection reagent to increase its net profit by 6529% in that year. However, with the tide of covid-19 testing dividend ebbing, the performance of enterprises including Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) , Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) and Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) declined to varying degrees.
In 2021, Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) revenue and net profit decreased both, and the actual revenue was 4.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.22%; The net profit was 2.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.29%. In the same year, Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) revenue decreased by 1.62% year-on-year to 2.019 billion yuan; Net profit decreased by 18.61% year-on-year to 759 million yuan. According to the first quarterly report of 2022, the net profit of Rendu biology decreased by 13.54% year-on-year.
Chang Rongshan believes that since there will be no large-scale epidemic, the nucleic acid detection of monkeypox virus is of little significance. "By May 21, a total of 187 cases had been found, and there were no cases in Eastern Europe, so it is unlikely that the virus could be transmitted to China. In addition, vaccine products have been available overseas. The improved attenuated non replicating vaccinia virus (Ankara strain) vaccine jynneos (also known as immamune or imvanex) produced by Nordic Danish companies has been approved for the prevention of monkeypox, which can effectively control the transmission.
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Jin Dongyan said that monkeypox, like previous smallpox, is mainly diagnosed by symptoms, with symptoms such as rash. Unlike covid-19, monkeypox will have asymptomatic infections. Due to the obvious clinical characteristics, monkeypox does not need antigen detection, and the specific diagnosis is mainly realized by PCR detection of virus DNA in skin lesions. In addition, monkeypox is not contagious before symptoms appear. As long as the pox is obvious, it will be infectious. As long as these people are isolated, it will not be transmitted.
Despite receiving overseas orders, Shanghai Zj Bio-Tech Co.Ltd(688317) also said that the monkeypox virus nucleic acid determination kit (fluorescent PCR method) produced by the company is affected by market competition, product competitiveness and channel ability of the company, customer recognition and other factors, and the sales and profit contribution are uncertain.
China has reserves of relevant vaccine strains
At present, there is no specific drug for monkeypox, and vaccination is still an effective measure to prevent infectious diseases. Studies have shown that the effective rate of vaccination against monkeypox is 85%.
On the evening of May 22, CNBC sent a document on the official wechat official account, saying that as the national team of China's biomedicine, Sinopharm group CNBC had safely sealed up "cowpox" after eradicating smallpox for emergency use. "If there is war, call back and win!" However, the article has been deleted. For the relevant layout, the reporter of Beijing business daily contacted the relevant person in charge of China biology, but as of press time, no reply has been received.
Jin Dongyan said that China has a strategic reserve of vaccinia virus "Temple of heaven strain". When the virus is introduced, just take out the vaccinia virus as a vaccine. Due to the low transmission rate, it is estimated that only a few hundred doses of vaccine will be enough for national use.
According to Chang Rongshan, human smallpox vaccine can provide almost 85% cross immunity against monkeypox. China has a strategic reserve of smallpox vaccine "Temple of heaven strain", and the sealed vaccine strain can be taken out to produce the vaccine as soon as six months. Beijing Business Daily reporter Yao Qian
