Compared with the volatile downward European and American markets, A-Shares performed a strong independent market last week, the Shanghai index recovered 3100 points, and the three major stock indexes collectively reaped "two consecutive positive" on the weekly line. In the view of insiders, the improvement of fundamentals is expected to drive the medium-term repair of a shares, and there will be abundant structural opportunities in the future. In addition to the main line of "stable growth", we can also pay attention to the layout opportunities of small cap growth stocks.
counter the trend to achieve two consecutive Yang on the weekly line
Last Thursday and Friday, the market continued to show a general rise. Finally, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index rose by 2.02%, 2.64% and 2.51% respectively throughout the week, ushering in two consecutive positives on the weekly line - this is not only a continuation of the early market rebound, but also an independent market emerging from the general shock and downturn in the European and American markets.
Last week, the three major stock indexes of US stocks fell again and collectively fell by more than 2%, while the weekly lines of NASDAQ and S & P 500 index showed "seven consecutive negative"; European stock markets performed slightly better, but their main stock indexes also showed an obvious shock trend.
"Since the end of April, after the sharp decline of US stocks, A-Shares have not followed the decline, which is due to the dislocation of economic cycles between China and the United States and the different valuation positions of stock markets." According to Xun Yugen, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) chief strategist, the current macro environment of A-Shares is better than that of U.S. stocks. After continuous adjustment, the valuation of A-Shares has been at a historically low level, while the valuation of U.S. stocks is at a moderately high level.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief strategist Qin Peijing believes that the trend of China's local epidemic situation has improved, the resumption of work and production and the resumption of business and market have been gradual, the implementation of the "steady growth" policy has taken into account the density and strength, and the resultant force of the policy has begun to appear. China's economy will return to the good trend month by month from May, and the profit growth of A-Shares will also pick up after the bottom of the second quarter.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) chief strategist Wang Hanfeng believes that the market already has midline value. "More positive fundamental 'catalysts' are needed for greater room for growth in the future. It is suggested to focus on the post epidemic repair of China's economic fundamentals, including real estate and consumer demand."
bullish small cap growth stocks
From last week's A-share market style, the performance of real estate, banks and other sectors benefiting from "stable growth" was relatively sluggish, while the growth sectors such as photovoltaic, new energy and semiconductor equipment were significantly "back to blood", leading the increase. It is found that at present, many institutions focus on the layout value of growth stocks, especially small and medium-sized growth stocks.
Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) strategy team estimates that since May, the absolute rate of return of the middle cap growth stocks camp has exceeded 5 percentage points and that of the small cap growth stocks camp has exceeded 7 percentage points, which is related to the previous oversold, and the valuation performance is cost-effective. "In the stage of increasing risk appetite, the rebound of small and medium-sized growth stocks is stronger; from the historical performance, in the stage of market rebound, the offensive of small and medium-sized growth stocks is stronger. If the economy stabilizes in the second half of the year and the market turns U-shaped, then the small and medium-sized market value growth stocks will become the urgent vanguard of rise."
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief strategist Dai Kang believes that the absolute return of large cap value stocks does not conflict with the strategic bullish small cap growth stocks. "The decisive factor for small cap growth stocks is China's credit environment. The credit environment of private enterprises has been improved. After the small liquidity shock in late April, the risks of small cap growth stocks have been cleared and the valuation has bottomed out." Dai Kang further judged that the market will usher in abundant structural opportunities. It is suggested to first focus on value stocks, and then focus on small cap growth stocks that benefit from the improvement of the credit environment of private enterprises, are limited by the tightening of the Federal Reserve, have a non crowded trading structure and oversold in the early stage, including medical drugs, semiconductors, photovoltaic modules, wind power, new energy vehicles and other varieties.
bargain hunting layout of infrastructure and consumer sectors
As for how to allocate the aftermarket of a shares, Qin Peijing suggested that the whole year focus on the two main lines of modern infrastructure and real estate, which is also the main direction of "steady growth", including undervalued construction leaders, power grid, data center and cloud infrastructure, as well as high-quality developers, property management and building materials; The quarterly dimension focuses on the main line of resumption of work and production, and it is suggested to focus on smart cars and parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic wind power equipment and other varieties; The monthly dimension pays attention to the main line of consumption restoration, and is optimistic about aviation, hotels, duty-free, food and beverage, department store supermarket and other varieties.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities chief strategy officer Chen Guo suggested paying attention to food and beverage, securities companies, military industry, photovoltaic, coal, infrastructure and other fields, as well as high-quality prosperity targets of science and innovation board. In terms of specific operation, Chen Guo believes that the continuous improvement of the whole internal and external environment is a high probability event, but we should be prepared for a certain shock in the bottom area of the market, and take bargain hunting layout as the basic principle.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategist Zhang Qiyao is optimistic about three main lines: first, in the "new half army" (new energy, semiconductor and military industry), the direction of strong immunity and maintaining high vision, such as photovoltaic modules, new military materials, wind power machines, semiconductor materials, etc; Second, core consumption assets such as alcohol, duty-free, aviation, scenic spots and hotels; Third, infrastructure, real estate and banking in the field of "steady growth".
